Baseball Dopers: Corey Patterson, Bust or Golddust?

In My Humble Opinion
1

So a pal and I are arguing about Cubs OF Corey Patterson.

So far he’s entering his 4th year. His career line is .243/.278/.379.

He’ll go to arbitration next off-season.

What do you folks think? Will he improve this season into a servicable outfielder? Will the Cubs release him rather than go to arbitration with him and maybe get hit with a big payday?

He’s 24 this year so it’s not like he could still be on the upward curve. But does that curve become Andruw Jones or Tom Goodwin?

You make the call!

2

He is a genuine major league talent. I got to watch him play for our local class A team, the Lansing Lugnuts. Even then you could tell he was going to be a star. If the Cubs have any brains (a big if) they will keep him around.

3

He has potential and is still young enough to have a solid upside. That said, I think he is a disappointment to those that saw him as the next great outfielder. I think he ends up more along the lines of a solid, productive outfielder (Marquis Grissom type).

Of course, if he finds someway to bring his walk to strikeout ratio into some manageable rate, he could do much better.

Good speed is wasted on a hitter that can’t get on base. Until his OBP gets better, he has no business leading off or hitting anywhere other than 7th or 8th in the order.

This is a big year for him. He has to show improvement in all facets. If he doesn’t, his big payday will likely not happen with the Cubs.

4

Marquis Grissom was a solid productive outfielder only with the Expos. Since then, he has been profiting from his earlier success.

If I knew a young player was going to grow up to be Marquis Grissom, I’d say “Pass.”

5

That’s my take on it.

Almost any player is worth some amount of money. But their talent determines when they go from ‘bargain’ to ‘expensive’.

6

He’s got one more year to start producing. Or else.

7

Too early to say bust. He’s only had one season of meaningful MLB playing time (admittedly, it was awful: .253/.284/.392), and he won’t even be 24 until August.

I don’t know if he’s going to be a superstar or even a star, but I believe his walk rate will improve. It improved pretty substantially between 1999 (Lansing) and 2000 (West Tennessee) and wasn’t abysmal in 2001 (Iowa), although it dropped off a bit.

Even taking into account era adjustment, if Patterson played like a Montreal-version Grissom, he’d be a disappointment unless he stole 50-70 bases a year. Outside of 1993, Grissom was pretty much hype as an offensive player.

8

Here’s an interesting thing to look at - Baseball Prospectus’s list of 10 most similar players at age 22.

  1. Reggie Smith (972)
  2. Willie Crawford (969)
  3. Paul Blair (962)
  4. Pat Seerey (955)
  5. George Foster (955)
  6. Bill Russell (953)
  7. Nelson Mathews (953)
  8. Ron Swoboda (953)
  9. Curt Flood (952)
  10. John Ellis (952)
    Mathews was a complete bust. So was Seerey. Crawford and Ellis didn’t amount to much. But the upside isn’t bad - Smith, Blair and Foster were pretty darn good at their peak.
    Of course, these kinds of lists don’t prove anything. Patterson will either develop, or he won’t.
    My personal opinion? He’ll eventually turn out to be a good (not great) ballplayer. It might not be with the Cubs, and it might not be for four to five years. The more I think about it, George Foster isn’t a bad comp.