Baseball odds question

You make it sound so easy, and yet Sanders had tagged major league pitchers for 1563 hits, including 292 homers. Pujols is super-dangerous, but you’re failing to account for the fact that Sanders is a good hitter.

Nope, Sanders is a good hitter, but Puhols is a greater hitter. Sanders struck out three times yesterday to help close out the Cards season. That’s the Sanders I’ve grown to know and love over the years. I’m sure that I’ve seen more at-bats from Sanders than most people. He’s a streaky hitter with a known hole in his swing. I’ll take a good pitcher like Oswalt or Lidge over Sanders any day. I think “playing the percentages” is not a bad strategy over the course of a long season when more right decisions than wrong decisions will likely occur. In the playoffs, throw away the percentages and look for the specific matchup at the plate and the current “hotness” of the hitter and pitcher.

I’ll take Brad Lidge over ALBERT PUJOLS any day. Game 5 aside, if Pujols was up against me tomorrow I’d put Lidge in there to get him out any day.

Yes, Sanders is streaky. Doesn’t matter. His next streak might start in his next at bat for all you know.

I am sorry, but this statement shows a lack of intelligent reasoning.

Managing by intuition is stupid. It also is rarely done. It’s the functional equivalent of going to Las Vegas and putting all your money on red because black showed up the last five times, or on 25 because that’s your Birthday. You get about the same results.

Is Albert Pujols a better hitter than Reggie Sanders? Yes, demonstrably so. Over the course of 100 AB’s, Mr. Pujols will get a hit about 4-5 more times. Wow. Seven out of ten times, Mr. Pujols will not get a hit. While Mr. Sanders isn’t the world’s greatest hitter, and has some deficiencies in his swing, if getting him out routinely was easy, his last name would be Mendoza, not Sanders. :wink:

Some of the talk here makes it sound like Sanders is some sort of scrub that never gets a hit. He’s a .270 hitter, which is very respectable. He’s also got a slugging percentage of .546, which is downright dangerous. His OPS is tied for the 3rd highest on the team. What he doesn’t do well is he strikes out a hell of a lot, and he doesn’t really walk very much, unlike Pujols.

I still think, streaks and baseball voodoo aside, clearly, pitching to Pujols is the less dangerous option.

Prior to Pujols at bat both Pujols and Sanders had had 4 at-bats, both had struck out once, Pujols had left 4 men on base, Sanders had left 5 men on base. Pujols had no hits and Sanders had one.

I don’t see how this supports walking Pujols.