Wins is a stat, an important one. What was the ERA of the pitchers he pitched against? Were they cold weather games? Was the wind blowing in hard from dead center? If he lost so many. what happened? Did he run into a hot pitcher every damn game? Were there a lot of errors ? Did he get runners on base through errors then give up a HR ? Then his ERA would not show what damage his gopher ball did.
The Mariners had the worst offense in Major League Baseball by a wide margin. Over 70 runs behind the Pirates.
Fine. he started 34 games. His team lost 17 of his starts. he was not always the pitcher of record, but the scores of losses he started were
3-1
6-3
8-0
6-5
6-5
8-1
5-1
7-1
3-2
6-4
3-2
6-1
4-0
6-0
9-1
7-4
1-0
Where are all the 1-zips. and 2 to 1 games? His team did not score a lot, but his team with him starting gave up a lot.
Who was better?
I think he’s trying to build a case for Justin Verlander, but we in Detroit forget what an ace pitches like. Justin Verlander, although a very good pitcher, ain’t it.
Jack Morris was the last ace pitcher we had. If you had Jack Morris and Justin Verlander on the same pitching staff, it’d also be clear that Morris would be the better option to trot out if you needed to win just one game.
Yeah, because Hernandez was responsible for the runs given up by the Seattle relief pitchers. :rolleyes:
Here’s your list again, this time with the number of innings pitched by Hernandez, and the number of runs he gave up while on the mound:
Score IP Runs
3-1 7 3
6-3 4.1 5
8-0 3.1 8
6-5 7 1
6-5 6 3
8-1 7 3
5-1 8 1
7-1 6 7
3-2 9 2
6-4 7 2
3-2 8 3
6-1 7 4*
4-0 7 3
6-0 8 3
9-1 6 6*
7-4 6 7
1-0 8 1
The run figures above are not earned runs; they are runs given up while Hernandez was on the mound, so they include runs given up because of fielding errors.
In the 17 games his team lost with him on the mound, he had a Quality Start (6+ innings; 3 earned runs or fewer) in 13 of those 17 starts, including the two with an asterisk (*). In the game that Seattle lost 9-1, all 6 of the runs conceded while Hernandez was on the mound were unearned runs.
What’s even more impressive, predictably enough, is Hernandez’s performance in the games that he won. Here it is:
Score IP Runs
11-3 6.2 2
7-0 9 0
6-0 8 0
5-1 9 1
4-1 9 1
4-1 8 1
4-1 9 1
3-0 8 0
5-3 6.2 3
4-2 8.2 2
2-0 8 0
4-2 7.1 2
3-1 7 0
3-1 8 1
4-3 7 3
2-1 8 0
2-1 8 1
That is just incredible. There is not a single cheap win there, where he and the team gave up 6 or 7 runs and still managed to win, and in 12 of the 17 he went 8 innings or more. Of his 34 starts this year, 30 were Quality Starts.
Yeah, i thought he might be pushing for Verlander, or perhaps Sabathia, who passed the mystical 20-win number. Neither of them was really that close to Hernandez this year. There were a bunch of solid contenders in the NL (Halladay deserved his win), but Hernandez was out there almost by himself in the AL.
In terms of VORP, no other pitcher came with 15 runs of Hernandez; David Price came in second in the AL, with 53.8 to Hernandez’s 68.8. And in Support Neutral Value Added, which actually measures the “wins above average added by the pitcher’s performance,” Hernandez had the best numbers in either league, adding 5 full wins above average.
But, for me, the stat that really hits home in this whole scenario is not something complicated like VORP or SNVA. It’s simply run support.
Runs scored by Detroit in the 33 games started by Justin Verlander: 171
Runs scored by New York in the 34 games started by CC Sabathia: 193
Runs scored by Seattle in the 34 games started by Felix Hernandez: 104
Let’s look at those losses. How many of the runs were his fault and how much can he be blamed for each of his team’s losses.
Let’s keep this simple in 2010 American League teams average around 4.45 runs per game. So, we’ll call any game that Felix gave up more than 4 runs a loss, and any game he gave up less a virtual win. I won’t even cut him any slack for unearned runs. I am just looking at runs given up while he was in the game.
He had 13 wins. He gave up 3 runs (2 earned) or less in each of these games. So, we can call all 13 virtual wins.
Seattle won 4 games when Felix did not get the decision. He gave up less than 3 runs in each of these games. (In 2 of them he gave up 0 runs.) So, that gives us 4 more virtual wins. Now we are at 17 virtual wins. (Also, these are 17 games that Seattle actually won.)
Ok. Now, we can go through the losses.
(3-1)
7 innings pitched. 7 hits. 3 runs. 2 earned runs. 3 walks. 7 strike outs.
3 runs in 7 innings? Should be good enough for a win. And, since it is under 4 we’ll call it a virtual win.
18-0
(6-3)
4.1ip 8h 5r 5er 4w 5so
5 runs? He sucks! What a joke. Those statheads are idiots.
18-1
(8-0)
3.1ip 5h 8r 7er 4w 3so
8 runs? My God. Who let this bozo on a major league team?
18-2
(6-5)
7.0ip 5h 1r 1er 2w 7so
Ah, there we go. 1 run given up? That should be enough. What? The bullpen gave up 4 and lost him the game? He still sucks.
19-2
(6-5)
6.0ip 11h 3r 3er 2w 6so
3 runs, and then the bullpen doubled the number in half the time.
20-2(We hit that magical number!)
(8-1)
7.0ip 7h 3r 2er 1w 6so
3 runs again. Didn’t work again. This time the bullpen gave up 5. It doesn’t matter, 1 run is all the offense could come up with.
21-2
(5-1)
8.0ip 6h 1r 1er 3w 7so
1 run in 8 innings and he still lost? Huh. Well, it’s not so bad even if the bullpen hadn’t given up 5 the game would have had to go into extras.
22-2
(7-1)
6.0ip 8h 7r 7er 3w 5so
Here’s an ugly loss and he only had himself to blame.
22-3
(2-3)
9.0ip 5h 2r 2er 1w 8so
2 runs over 9. Unfortunately, the Mariners were facing that greatly feared Chicago Cubs pitching staff and were only able to get 2 runs as well. To extras they went.
23-3
(6-4)
7.0ip 6h 2r 2er 2w 6so
Hey, atleast this time if the bullpen hadn’t thrown it away the Mariners scored enough to win it.
24-3
(3-2)
8.0ip 10h 3r 3er 0w 3so
Ah, yet again, the Mariners had a tough time breaking the tough 2 run barrier.
25-3
(6-1)
7.0ip 8h 4r 2er 3w 3so
4 runs? Ah well, nobody’s perfect. At least the Mariners didn’t waste their offense in this terribly pitched game.
25-4
(4-0)
7.0ip 7h 3r 3er 1w 4so
He gave up 3 runs. Sadly, he wasn’t able to score any while he was pitching.
26-4
(6-0)
6.2ip 8h 3r 3er 1w 3so
He must have an awful awful affect on those batters! Another shutout.
27-4
(9-1)
6.2ip 6h 6r 0er 4w 7so
6 runs! This really was a bad game. 0 of them were earned, but that is because there was a 2 out error. I can’t really defend this game. He still gave up a ton of runs after the error. At least the Mariners didn’t waste any offense.
27-5
(7-4)
6.1ip 6h 7r 4er 3w 5so
Another loss! And, this time the Mariners wasted their bats.
27-6
(1-0)
8.0ip 2h 1r 1er 4w 5so
Ah yes. If only he would have tried harder.
28-6
Now, this was a silly exercise. And it doesn’t prove much. But, it shows pretty clearly that it’s hard to blame him for many of those loses. And you know what? We put the threshold down to 2 runs he’d still have pitched in 20 games that the team should have won.
Jamie Moyer needs TJ surgery, but plans to come back in 2012.
Shit. That’s awesome kenner. How can you not root for a guy like that. What’ll he be in 2012? 49? 50?
Moyer’s 50th birthday would be November 18, 2012.
He’s had (IMHO) the most amazing career in baseball history. This is a guy who was basically washed up after going 0-5, 5.74 in 8 games (7 starts) with the '91 Cardinals at age 28 and spending his age 29 season with Detroit’s AAA team in Toledo.
I love Jamie Moyer, but i think he’s fucking insane to get TJ surgery and try to come back now. Bow out with dignity, dude.
I think he’s been told to bow out gracefully for the past 10 years. And he keeps coming back, throwing 180-200 innings a year, and winning 10-12 games. Teams will pay plenty for a guy like that, whether hes 28, 38, or 48.
Yeah, the market this off-season is red-hot for 49-year-olds coming off Tommy John surgery.
I was all for him continuing as long as he was pitching well, and i was really happy to see him have some success this season, but TJ surgery is a long road back physically, even for a 20-something.
My point is just that the dude has defied the odds to this point so anything he does is not a surprise.
Quite a few infield moves in the NL West. Juan Uribe goes from the Giants to the Dodgers, and Miguel Tejada from the Padres to the Giants.
Jason Frasor accepted his arbitration offer from the Jays. Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, John Buck (a formality) and Miguel Olivo likely won’t.
I think the dataset on 48-year-old Major Leaguers is pretty small. Let’s hope his doctors put him on the Satchell Page diet.
(I’m hoping he comes back because he’s the last dude in the bigs that’s older than me.)
How is fighting to stay in the game undignified?
He loves baseball. He wants to keep playing. Good for him. It’s his career. If Jamie Moyer wants to go down kicking and screaming, why not?
It’s not the fighting so much as what i fear will happen after he returns, which is a half-season in which he struggles through a bunch of awful performances, putting up ERAs in the 7-8 range.
Watching Trevor Hoffman laboring towards his 600th save this season was painful, and i just think it would be more dignified for Moyer to bow out now, after a pretty decent season and a very impressive career. Sure, it’s his body and his career, but i think putting himself through Tommy John surgery at this stage, when he’s already had almost two and a half decades in the majors, is sort of pointless. YMMV.