I’m not totally disagreeing with you, but there’s a lot of presumptions going on here: that Crawford’s replacement will be at least decent; that Hellickson will be the same; that Price will be good again (he’s still unproven–he had one good year); that they can replace Crawford’s speed (if not by his replacement); that they won’t be overwhelmed by Boston’s upgrades and the Yankees already very good team (despite little upgrade); that they have a reliable closer; that they can replace Garza’s innings; that they can replace Pena’s power (Longoria now seems alone in the Rays’ infield); that they can handle the pressure of consecutive pennant races; and their suddenly young, inexperienced team can actually win the 95+ games it’s likely going to take to win the AL East this year. I’m allowing 85 wins and not much more. Wildcard? Possible. Division? Not likely.
Of course, the flip side of that is the Yankees are now paying nearly $12 million a year for a setup man and lose their first-round pick in an astonishingly deep draft - and likely the last one in which big market teams will be able to flex their financial muscle. To put things into perspective, their division rivals have approximately nine (Rays), seven (Blue Jays), and five (Red Sox) first round picks (depending on how the last few free agent contracts play out).
This is assuming Soriano doesn’t opt out in one of the next two years. Yep, for reasons that are utterly beyond me, the Yankees incorporated player opt-out clauses into Soriano’s contract for both the 2012 and 2013 seasons. Basically, what that means is that they assume all of the risk for the contract: if Soriano sucks, or blows out his arm, or decides to convert himself into a knuckleballer midseason, he’ll elect to stay for the full three years, making $35 million in the process. If (as is more likely), he performs brilliantly, he can opt out after any season and demand even more money to stay.
I think the best case scenario for the Yankees is that Soriano pitches excellently this year (say, 65+ innings at a sub-2.50 ERA) and then opts out, becoming a Type A free agent again, and netting the Yankees two early picks in the 2012 draft. Still a high price to pay, both in raw dollars and in mortgaging the future (considering the likely changes in how slotting will work in post-2011 drafts), but one the Yankees can handle given their financial resources.
More likely, though, Soriano’s going to come down to earth somewhat. Keep in mind that he’ll be an extreme flyball pitcher in the cozy confines of New Yankee Stadium, and that he’s horrendous against left-handed hitters, which means he’ll be next to useless for the 19 games the Yankees will play against the 2011 Red Sox.
Desperation. They needed the psychological advantage of having signed a “big name” player, especially after they lost Lee and the Red Sox upgraded. Soriano could almost have named his price. I’m surprised he settled for so little.
Players slates don’t wipe clean once they hit the majors. Hellickson has proven that he can dominate at every level including his brief trip to the majors. He might have some growing pains but I don’t think their is much question that he is going to be very good. Price has done that too, so I see the risk of significant regression as minimal. He might be somewhat worse, but Shields, whose perpetuals are way better than his ERA, should be better. Jennings, who will replace Crawford is a little riskier, but his track record says he should be a solid regular. If he proves not ready, corner outfield isn’t the hardest position to fill. The inexperience and pressure things are nonsense, you don’t have to look past the Rays recent success to show that experience doesn’t matter. I also don’t think they need to specifically replace the speed or power lost (though Jennings can fly), as long as players produce or prevent runs it doesn’t matter how.
I think the Red Sox are the best team in baseball, so the Rays will be hard-pressed to win the division. I wouldn’t be stunned if they did though.
Yeah, I agree. The Red Sox certainly have the best offense in baseball, but their rotation is an injury or another Beckett down year away from being middle-tier. I don’t see Buchholz putting up the same numbers he did last year, given that he was the beneficiary of an extremely low BABIP (read: good luck). My guess is that Clay will be solid, but he won’t be the near-ace of 2010. As for the other members of the starting staff… well, Lackey’s 2010 performance is probably about as good as he’ll produce from here on out. And who knows what the hell to expect from Dice-K. IOW, if Beckett doesn’t rebound to the level of a solid no. 2 starter or if Lester stumbles for a significant portion of the season, the Sox could be in trouble. Their starting rotation is, on paper, better and much, much deeper than the Yankees’s, but we already saw last year how little “on paper” can matter.
Given the Rays front office’s exceptional record in both talent evaluation and developing said talent, the fresh influx of near-MLB ready prospects from the Garza trade, and most importantly, the now-MLB ready prospects that will be replacing Crawford, Pena, and Garza, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Rays in first or second in the AL East this year. I certainly wouldn’t count them out of the race entirely. And given their absolutely ridiculous number of high-level draft picks this year, I see the Rays contending for years to come (admittedly, maybe not in Tampa Bay in the long term).
Tampa did take a step backwards. But I think on Paper Philly is probably the best team. Red Sox might be second though.
Jeff Francis to the Royals in a 1-year contract.
A Major League “source” is reporting Grant Balfour to the A’s for a two-year deal pending a physical. He’s a Type A free agent but the A’s first round pick is protected so TB gets a 2nd rounder instead.
I think the A’s pitching is going to kick-ass this year.
There are going to be some frightening pitching staffs this year. Philly obviously leads the pack, but the Giants, Brewers, Rays, A’s, and White Sox will be formidable as well.
You don’t have to replace Pena’s power, you have to replace his offense. It doesn’t really matter if you replace his power with a different kind of offense.
And last year, Pena’s offense was pretty offensive. He still has power and walks but a guy batting .196 is going to have trouble being a big contributor; his OPS+ was 102, which for a first baseman is not good. Lyle Overbay was a better hitter.
How does holding left-handed batters to a .196 BA qualify as horrendous?
Hmm… I thought I’d read somewhere that Soriano was pretty poor against lefty hitters, but I can’t find it now. A quick glance at his stats suggests that he’s actually been quite good vs LHH, particularly last season.
That being said, there are indications that his .202 BA against last year was heavily influenced by a combination of luck, park factors, and Tampa Bay’s superior infield defense (BABIP of .238, xFIP 4.42). My guess is that he’ll still see his numbers go down in Yankee Stadium, where his strong flyball tendencies will be more of a hindrance than in Tropicana Field, but you’re right that he’s starting from a good place so a drop wouldn’t necessarily be trouble. Mea culpa.
The guy hit .196 last year; his power was his offense. Whatever you call it, Tampa Bay needs to replace it.
My point’s merely that it shouldn’t be hard. Pena doesn’t represent a significant loss; allowing him to leave as a free agent is being portrayed, for what reason I don’t understand, as some sort of blow to Tampa Bay. Why would they WANT him back? I know he had some good years there but he appears to be falling apart at precisely the age guys like him fall apart.
The guy also walks like crazy. Pena’s BA makes him look like an offensive black hole, but consider his triple slash line: .196/.325/.473. That’s a 14.9% walk rate in his worst offensive year. Admittedly, all that makes the 2010 edition of Carlos Pena a pretty bad first baseman, but it’s not awful. If he manages to get his BA back to anywhere near 2007 levels, he’ll be a solid player for the Cubs.
Wells to the Angels for Napoli and Rivera. Great trade for the Jays, depending on how much money they are sending along with Wells.
Of course, since it is the Jays:
Great - Trade one long term horrible deal for another.
Big day in the Al East. Tampa adds Damon and Ramirez, which just replace much of offensive they lost from Crawford and Pena. I’m sure these match-ups with the Yankees and Red Sox won’t be overhyped or anything. Meanwhile the Blue Jays put in an early contender for trade of the decade if reports that the Angels are absorbing all of Wells contract are correct. Fangraphs had an impromptu chat on the terribleness of the deal for Anaheim. Personally, I’m happy that Napoli will no longer be benched behind a 210 hitting catcher, though Toronto’s catching situation is a bit crowded too. Wonder how they will work it out.
Also of note is Brian Cashman coming out against the Soriano signing. Can’t be a good sign for the yankees that the more patient approach was overruled, and that Cashman felt the need to publicly declare his disapproval.
It would replace the Pena-Crawford offense if it were the Damon and Ramirez of 5 years ago. Now, it’s not a given, not anywhere close. Still, here’s hoping they can go out with some dignity.
How the hell can the Angels balk at paying Crawford or Beltre when they’ll take on the Wells contract? Is Toronto picking up 3/4 of it? Napoli looks to be a 1B/DH now, not a catcher.
Word has it that Toronto’s pitching in somewhere between zero and $5 million (no, not a typo). Congratulations, Angels - you just effectively released your second-best offensive player and signed a crappy-fielding, mediocre-hitting free agent for approximately four times his projected value. This has got to be the most idiotic trade in the last decade, at least.
The part of me that’s a fan of a non-Canadian AL East team is annoyed and worried right now, but it is completely overshadowed of the much bigger part of me that hates the Angels and is overwhelmed with delicious schadenfreude. Suck it, Halos!
I love this bit:
What do you think are the odds of Wells opting out of those three years? 