Baseball Offseason Thread

The Game Room
121

First of all, I clearly stated in my first sentence in my first post on the AL Cy Young that Felix deserved the Cy Young. So enough with the strawman arguments. I’m simply saying that the “King” prefix should require similar success in meaningful games. I’m one who believes that Felix would dominate in any situation. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t had the opportunity.

tanbarkie, you actually haven’t made any points of value in your posts in this thread. You’ve merely found someone with actual stats that support your hometown biases (or rather, enemy town hatred), that you can piggyback on. I’ve refrained from addressing your posts because they’re FOS, and others had expressed disapproval of the pissing contest.

mhendo, I’m not one to poo poo stats. I have a BS in Statistics and Actuarial Science and have passed 3 actuarial exams, including Probability and Statistics and Regression Analysis. My profession for the last 10 years is investment management and I review and analyze stats all day long. I hire and fire investment managers based on their performance and attribution stats, and based on many other unquantifiable factors. I have a committee of very smart people (some who many here probably know) who review my decisions. And they are the ones who would fire me (technically, they’d recommend I be fired, but you get my point). Oftentimes, my reasoning is based on the numbers and other times it’s based on feel. Finding the correct balance will ultimately dictate success. If I made my decisions solely on the stats, I would have been fired about 9.5 years ago.

Assessing baseball players is not all that different from what I do. There is an entire field of investing based on behavioral psychology, in which many have made inroads in quantifying the previously unquantifiable. In fact, I have a couple of managers that have Nobel laureates on their boards. These are the guys that will swear that whole story is in the numbers. Unfortunately, no one will give them money if they were the ones doing the investing. And, in fact, they would prove to be unsuccessful in investing. Why? Because there’s always something that’s missing from their numbers. This doesn’t mean that what they provide has no value. There’s a reason they get paid millions to sit on these boards.

I hope you see the analogy to baseball.

122

Where did the rank in the major categories? Major categories (IMO)

Wins
Winning %
WHIP
ERA
K’s
IP
Runs allowed
BB’s
CG
Starts

123

gonzomax:

I can’t see the Mets making any major player moves before they hire their manager.

124

I didn’t even know there was a baseball offseason. I just figured everyone went home and magically the Yankees overpay for the best available player (and sometimes the second).

Being a DBacks fan, I didn’t even know the other teams actually made moves. Wait, the other teams do make moves, right? All of them? Are we sure?

125

The most important simple pitching stats are k rate, hr rate, walk rate, and to a lesser extent ground ball rate, as those are ones the pitchers has full control over. If you force me to use only the ones you picked.

K’s (k rate or k to bb rate, or k’s as a percentage of batters faced are better)
BB’s (again as a percentage is better)
RA
ERA
WHIP (The hit part can be pretty random. Look at Maddux’s avg against by year)
IP

And the rest don’t have much value at all.

126

That’s a really interesting question, especially if it was even worse, say 11 and 14.

127

I continue to take issue with the idea that Felix hasn’t had the opportunity to dominate, whatever that means. He has dominated. He has defeated extremely strong opponents on numerous occasions. At the age of 24, he has with regularity taken apart the best offensive lineups in the better offensive league of Major League Baseball. Given that there’s no particular evidence that there is some significant cohort of pitchers that “appear” good when playing on crappy teams but crumble upon pennant race pressure (although if you think there is, please do cite them), I think that qualifies as dominant.

I’d be curious to see who, exactly, has been disapproving of my side of the “pissing contest.” But whatever.

And again with the accusation of team bias? Really? Why not quit with the ad hom bullshit and actually post a substantive argument for once?

128

Dude, haven’t you been following along? The A’s traded a #5 starter and a minor leaguer for David DeJesus! David DeJesus!! Screw your Cliff Lees, Carl Crawfords, and Jayson Werths…we got David DeJesus. And they weren’t done there, no siree. Then they picked up Edwin Encarnacion off of waivers!! And to cap it all, they traded Rajai Davis for not one, but TWO middle-inning minor league relievers. HAH! In your face Cashman!

129

I’ll use quotation marks for your quotes, instead of the quote feature, and asterisks for my comments:

"Daric Barton >>> Mark Teixeira

Mark Ellis > Orlando Hudson > Dustin Pedroia >>> Robinson Cano

And of course, pretty much any AL shortstop >>>>>>> Derek Jeter"

          *Really now?  Three 'greater than' signs?

“Cano is solid defensively, but his win this year is almost certainly because of the strides he’s made with the bat, not any particular fielding prowess.”

           *Your claim is that experts who vote forgot what they were voting on?  Sure, that's a reasonable assumption, :rolleyes:

“That’s exactly the same kind of argument that leads to Derek Jeter winning five Gold Gloves - people see him make “spectacular” jump-and-throw plays and assume that that makes him a spectacular defender.”

           *Cite that it's the jump-and-throw plays that male people assume he's a great defender?

“you do realize that Pedroia won both Rookie of the Year and MVP, right?”

           *So are you saying that these were not deserved?

“Again, this doesn’t really make sense. Why wouldn’t he see as many good pitches batting 2nd rather than 5th? Because he’d be pitched around? But that’s exactly the same ass-backwards “protection” argument you were making before, and it still makes no sense. Why would a pitcher would risk walking Pedroia just to face Martinez, Ortiz, or Youkilis?”

           *This quote doesn't make any sense at all.  *If* protection does matter, then he would see better pitches.  Why walk him?  This is why he had a better BA.  It would be lower if he batted later in the lineup without protections.  I acknowledge that you might not believe in protection, and perhaps some statistical analyses suggest it doesn't.  But what happened to David Ortiz after his protection, in the form of Manny Ramirez, left town?  And why does every single manager believe that it matters?  Are they not privy to the same stats that you have?

“Cite, please, that home vs road stats are indicative of batting skill.”

Pedroia’s career stats:

  • 	 	AVG 	        OBP 	         SLG 	OPS

Home .324 .386 .500 .886
Away .285 .353 .420 .774

Why can’t Pedroia hit on the road? Good thing he plays at Fenway, or else he’d be back to Pawtucket. Just kidding on that one.

“It should also be pointed out that the Mariners’ division includes the perennially-contending Angels”

       *And that has what, exactly, to do with 2010?

“Not to mention the fact that the Mariners have to face the Yankees themselves - something Sabathia did not have to do.”

       *Who said anything about Sabathia?

“Regardless, there’s little if any evidence that being a “high” or “low” pressure environment is at all indicative of pitcher skill.”

       *Riiight.  No such thing as pressure, huh?  This is complete idiocy.

“I mean, just look at this year’s top playoff pitchers (surely you don’t get any “higher pressure” than the playoffs!). Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum just made their very first playoff appearances this year, after spending their careers up to this year pitching for terrible teams. And both pitchers dominated in their very first games, Halladay throwing a no-hitter and Lincecum throwing a 14K complete game masterpiece.”

       *Another completely irrelevant comment of zero value from you.  Thanks for playing.

“Thanks once again for ignoring my points entirely, just like you did in the Cano/Pedroia discussion.”

       *Exactly what did I ignore?

“For the record, those voters whose judgment you value so highly gave Felix 21 out of 28 possible first place votes. Price, who certainly was one of the best in the AL this year, earned four. Sabathia, who was not, earned three. I don’t know what bar you’re setting for “not convinced,” but here in reality, we consider that a blowout”

       *Yeah, I would have voted for him too.  What's your point?  And 7 didn't.  What's their reason?

"Well, there is one way we can sort of get at this question - look at how Felix pitches in Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park (surely, friend JackknifedJuggernaut can admit that those must necessarily be the highest pressure of high pressure situations for a lowly Seattle Mariner). And because he’s such a low-pressure guy, he must have done so much worse in those stadiums than at his home turf. "

       *First of all, I'm the one who pointed out that he dominated the Yankees.  Secondly, high pressure involves a playoff run or playoff game.  Yet another strawman argument out of you.  Thanks.

"I continue to take issue with the idea that Felix hasn’t had the opportunity to dominate, whatever that means.:

       *I said dominate in any situation.  As far as I know, he hasn't played an important game in his career.

"And again with the accusation of team bias? Really? "

       *Yeah, really.
130

Pitching for a yankee team that comfortably coasted to a division title isn’t pressure. This is playing with pressure

131

Yanks were the Wild Card team last I checked. But yes, that is another level of pressure.

132

Right. I should have said playoff spot.

133

They gave a Gold Glove to a DH once.

If you’re going to accept the circular argument that players who win Gold Gloves must deserve them because they win Gold Gloves then by all means knock yourself out. On the other hand, a skeptic like me can’t help but notice that there isn’t any measure by which Jeter is a good fielder and in fact he doesn’t LOOK like a good fielder.

It’s also very easy to note that Gold Gloves have quite frequently been given to players in years when they had sudden surges with the bat and are also quite frequently just given to whomever won the last few. Do you really, honestly think it likely that Jim Kaat was actually the best fielding pitcher in the league 16 years in a row? Really? Even the year he had an .826 fielding percentage?

Does it strike you as being just a coincidence that in the early 1980s the voters seemed to think Alan Trammell was the best defensive shortstop in the AL except, by the strangest of coincidences, in 1982, when Robin Yount had a huge year with the bat? Yount did nothing defensively in 1982 had hadn’t done in the seasons before or would for several seasons after, but it’s just a coincidence they gave him his one and only Gold Glove that year?

Well, for one thing, it’s not “Some analysis,” it’s all of it. For another, Ortiz got old.

Mike Schmidt always had protection in the form of Greg Luzinski, but in 1980 Luzinski got hurt… and Schmidt had his best season. Then the next year Luzinski was gone, and for three years Schmidt had no protection at all, and he was even better. How?

For every single case you point out of a hitter losing his “protection” and getting worse, I can show you a case where exactly the opposite happened.

134

Strawman arguments galore. I love dealing with you pseudo-intellectuals.

You’re too funny:

Talk out of your ass much, Rick? 'Cause it’s starting to stink.

And this is relevant how,exactly? Because it certainly doesn’t apply to Cano, who was already robbed of a GG last year.

Uh, no. Please point out where I mentioned Jim Kaat.

I guess logic isn’t taught in the Canadian public school system. What does this have to do with anything? I never said or implied that all GG’s are awarded correctly.

Cite?

Yeah, I guess Manny must have reminded him that he was old as he was leaving. I’m sorry, but I’ll stick with the opinions of actual professionals. Try out your analysis on a little league team first before you deem it appropriate for MLB.

Again, take a class in logic and come back. Stop faking it.

That’s why you had to go back to Greg Luzinski? Whose OPS in 1980 was .783?

You guys are funny! You almost had me taking you seriously.

135

What is the freaking deal with all the animosity in these threads? It’s just baseball, for pete’s sake.

136

Juggernaut, just for the record, your post is nearly impossible to follow and strewn with unnecessary insults, it’s not really helping your argument or making this a better thread.

137

:clubs:Mod Note: Jackknifed Juggernaut. Even taking into account the high level of investment and the high treshhold for friendly bickering, this is way out of line for the Game Room. You’ve been a member here for nigh ten years and you should already know this.

Disagreeing - on whatever grounds - in the Game Room never means that it’s permissable to snark on the other poster. Any further insults towards other posters will result in a formal warning. And that goes for everyone, not just Jackknifed Juggernaut.

138

Plus which you’re factually wrong about a number of matters. We have argued, very usefully, the virtues and vices of the concept of “protection” several times here in the past, and the conclusion seems to be that it probably doesn’t exist, and that the extent to which this conclusion is unprovable, it could ONLY exist to a very small degree, not nearly the degree that its advocates claim for it. I could link you to this discussion, if there’s any possibility in your mind, JJ, that you would accept it if shown sufficient evidence.

here’s one useful link: http://www-math.bgsu.edu/~grabine/protstudy.txt

139

Agreed, got a bit carried away. My level of intensity escalates after a few whiskeys. But no excuses and I apologize to any that I’ve insulted, and especially to RickJay.

In any case, I will come back to this debate, but have to take the weekend off.

140

The mods are carrying clubs now? :eek: