When a batter gets a three ball and no strike count, the next pitch is usually a fastball right down the middle that the batter automatically takes, unless they are very good hitters, in which case they (good hitters only) usually have the “green light” to swing at the pitch if they choose to.
It seems to me that the green light should be given to all batters, especially “bad” hitters since the next pitch is coming straight in and is almost like batting practice for anyone who is good enough to play in the major leagues, good hitter or not. (national league PITCHERS who have to bat excluded)
This would also put more pressure on the pitchers to not just throw one down the middle, which would actually result in more walks since the pitcher would be thinking this batter may swing at the next pitch.
So why do batters (especially bad hitters) take an automatic strike if they know that the next pitch is going to be a pitch right down the middle?
After getting three balls (and no strikes), the odds are better of walking than chancing a pop-up or weak ground ball for an out. Even knowing what’s coming is not an automatic hit.
Or it may be conventional baseball wisdom that won’t hold up to actual stats.
It’s a fast ball down the middle because the batter is going to take it. The odds are in favor of a walk at that point, swinging will produce less bases.
Because the strike isn’t automatic. Even the best pitchers miss sometimes. And a pitcher who has already thrown three balls in a row without recording a strike probably doesn’t have pinpoint accuracy at that point. The odds of him throwing another ball, even if he’s trying to throw a strike, may exceed the odds of getting a hit for a bad hitter.
I think this is overstating things. A 3-0 count might mean that the pitcher is having control issues. Or it might mean that, with this particular batter in this particular situation, he’s especially concerned to avoid letting the batter have something good to hit.
It still makes no sense. Isn’t the art of hitting looking for and getting the pitch you want? If I was a major league hitter I would want one right down the middle which is usually exactly what you get on a 3-0 pitch. Why waste a pitch like that when you clearly have the advantage at that time over the pitcher?
It makes sense if you consider the goal is to get on base. At a 3-0 count what is the easiest way to get on base? It’s taking a pitch and trying to draw a walk.
Because with a slight change of speed or throwing a slider or change-up, you completely mess up a hitter that knows it will be, and has his timing set for, a fast ball.
Because based on the info posted by John DiFool, even though the probability of getting a hit is high, you have a far greater probability of drawing a walk than getting a hit. On a 3-0 count OBP is almost .600 higher than BA; you have nearly twice the probability of getting on base with a walk than a hit (neglecting HBP, etc.)
Whether it’s worthwhile to try for the hit may be based on other factors, such as the number of outs, whether a runner is in scoring position, who’s coming up next, etc. But all things being equal, taking the pitch is the best way to get to first base.
I am pretty sure that what that % covers is what happens on that 3-and-0 pitch (not afterwards):
Either you take it and it’s a ball (congratulations, you’re on base with a walk)
OR you swing and get a hit (congratulations, you’re on base with a hit)
OR you swing and fly out, line out, ground out… (too bad, you’re out)
OR you swing and miss or take a strike (and you’re still at bat).
In essence what that statistic does is leave out the situations in which that 3-0 pitch is a strike. So it’s saying that 95% of the plays that are completed on that fourth pitch end up with the player reaching base. In other words, making an out on a 3-0 count is very unusual–which doesn’t mean that you NEVER go out, only that doing so usually takes more time.
No outs, one out, two out?
Runner on first? In scoring position? Is he fast or slow?
Is it early or late in the game? Are we up or down? By how much?
Who’s up next and how is he against this pitcher/the likely reliever? If it’s the pitcher, do we want him to go one more or were we bringing somebody in anyway?
Is it 3-0 because a great slider has just been missing the corner or is it a fastball guy who just hit the mascot?
All of these things can and should influence the manager’s decision.
When it comes to a facing a really good hitter, mightn’t the pitcher choose a to throw a “junk pitch” (something off-speed and/or edging the plate) on a 3-0 count (depending on the game situation, of course)?
Reason being, if he knows the hitter may have the green-light he doesn’t want to throw something in his wheelhouse, preferring to walk him rather than risk an extra-base hit.
I think I remember Barry Bonds sometimes getting un-hittable 3-0 pitches even with the bases loaded. :eek:
I can’t find a cite for that, but here is a video of the Diamondbacks intentionally walking Bonds with the bases loaded.
One other factor is when the game is being played.
If your up 3-0 and winning by lets say 7 runs in the 8th inning, and you swing at a good 3-0 pitch, your inviting some sweet chin music by the pitching staff of the other team to you or one of your batters.
