You think Rodney has not had equal numbers this year? Our middle relief has also been stellar. The Yanks are at a disadvantage in pitching. Pitching shuts down hitting. Ergo a close series.
Actually, he quotes the first criteria given to MVP voters to highlight not the “value to his team” portion, but the “offense and defense” portion. Sorry. The rest of the article is spent trying to determine what numbers to use to determine value. Again - sorry.
Also, Rosenthal doesn’t vote on the AL MVP.
The funny thing is that, apart from the somewhat defensive and dismissive attitude that Rosenthal demonstrates regarding stat people (“number geeks sitting in their basements”—is Ken Rosenthal actually ElvisL1ves in disguise?), i think that’s not really a bad article. I don’t agree with everything he says, but not a single thing in that article demonstrates the sort of irrational position you have been taking in this thread. Well, maybe one thing: Rosenthal’s references to “team-first approach” and “selfless qualities.” Meaningless drivel, in the context of this debate. But i digress.
Rosenthal brings up Mauer’s late start to the season, and he also brings up the fact that Mauer has played DH in 24 of his 114 starts. Reasonable points to make. Personally, i think the month Mauer missed actually works in his favor. He has been even more valuable, in terms of wins created, to the Twins in 120 appearances than Jeter or Youkilis or Cabrera were, even with their larger number of appearances.
The DH thing is perhaps more relevant, because it’s true that a DH provides no defensive help to his team. But there are a couple of problems with this argument, in this particular case. First of all, Mauer is not Jason Giambi, or some other mediocre fielder who happens to play DH occasionally, along with stints at 1B. Mauer plays at the most defensively valuable and defensively taxing position in all of baseball, and he does it better than just about anyone else in baseball.
Not only that, but basically every catcher in baseball gets a whole bunch of days off during the season. Only 6 AL catchers have started more games behind the plate than Mauer this year, despite Mauer missing the month of April. And not one of those 6 catchers even approaches Mauer in terms of offensive productivity. (Suzuki, Pierzynski, Laird, Brajas, Navarro, Varitek)
Rather than see Mauer’s 24 starts at DH as a negative, i think it shows just how incredible he is with the bat that, on days when he gets a rest behind the plate, he is still the best hitter in the Twins organization. How many catchers, in the history of baseball, can you say that about? Only 3 AL catchers have more ABs than Mauer this year, and one of those is Victor Martinez, who has started almost as many games at 1B this year as he has at catcher.
But, more important than all this, did you notice what Ken Rosenthal did NOT say in that article?
Not once does he mention that a team must be a contender in order for a player to be a candidate for MVP. He talks about OPS, he talks about the balancing of offensive and defensive production, he talks about value to the team. But never once does he says that a player is only valuable if he makes a contribution to a winning team. He does not once say that an awesome player on a non-contending team should not be considered for MVP.
You’re right that he says that criterion number one is “actual value of a player to his team.” But neither i, nor RickJay, nor Munch, have ever denied that. We simply argue that “value” is not defined by whether or not the team is in contention for a playoff spot.
It seems clear to me that not only do you disagree with us, but, somewhat paradoxically, you don’t even seem to understand the actual argument that we’re making.
Left it out? What the hell else would you use? To not consider his offense and defense would be absurd. That gives you a pool of players roughly equivalent. Then of course, you would ignore value? On Most VALUABLE Player award.? How?
Huh?
Gonzo - I’m not arguing against not using offense and defense. I’m pointing out that that article does not say what you think it says.
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/34594194.html Here is a guy with a vote, who spells it out for you. A guy on a noncontender can not be MVP.
You understand the writers aren’t a hive mind right? Not all them agree on who can and cannot be mvp. There are plenty of voters who have voted for non-contenders before. Personally, I think that was a terrible ballot, and consider it a shame that he has a vote.
I disagree. WRT closers, it’s not really even close: Rodney vs. Rivera. The Yankee bullpen has also been better than Detroit’s.
In the whole of the series, the one true advantage Detroit will have is Jackson vs. Burnett – and that advantage depends entirely on which Burnett shows up and if he sticks around.
On the other hand, the Yankees have scored close to 200 more runs than the Tigers and with far more consistency up and down the line up.
Until, of course, it doesn’t in which case people just shrug and say, “Well the pitching just wasn’t that good.”
As had already been pointed out on multiple occasions, i recognize that some voters use criteria like this for judging the award. My argument is NOT that it doesn’t happen; my argument is that it is a bad way to judge value.
You disagree. Fair enough. But simply pointing to an article by a guy who shares your prejudices does not constitute an actual debate.
That is a ludicrous ballot MVP ballot for the 2008 season… it’s mere hand-waving and self-justification. “I thought Ryan Ludwick had just as much to do with keeping the Cards in the hunt as Pujols did”? That’s just silly. Nice that he managed to get three Brewers into hit top 9… I wonder how many they’d have had if they came up one game short?
Albert Pujols had just as much of an MVP season last year as he is having this season. Last year the cardinals did not have Chris Carpenter (and Adam Wainwright got hurt and was less effective) or Matt Holliday. This year they do. Because of that this guy would vote Pujols 7th last year and 1st this year? Madness…
I also like the reminder that Brad Lidge got 2 first-place MVP votes last year. This year he might have put up the worst season every by a relief pitcher. Ah, baseball, you are a fickle lover.
Right you are, sir. Seriously, who would you most rather have on the mound in the ninth in October for your team? You have to go pretty far down the list to get to Fernando Rodney.
The Tiggers are barely a .500 club, people. They won’t be much of a problem for New York.
“Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa.” - Casey Stengel
Say this enough times and the Yanks are gonna lose. I still vividly remember the predictions of “Tigers in 3” from 2006. That Cards team’s record? 83-78.
The Tiggers are barely a .500 club, people. They won’t be much of a problem for New York.
I hear that the Tiggers are barely a .500 club. Does anyone think they’ll be much of a problem for New York?
The Tigers have damn good starters. The series is going to be tough and the Yanks need to be careful.
However the Yanks really do have a better bullpen.
You gotta close your eyes and click your heels three times when you do that or the magic won’t work right.
BTW, anybody know who’s the only pitcher in MLB history to have a 0.00 ERA in over 25 postseason innings? Not Mo.
Pap.
There’s really not that much difference in pitching; it’s a difference of about one run every seven games. And the Yankees play in a bandbox, making their pitching stats look superficially worse than they really are.
Conversely, the hitting difference is BIG.
New York is a much better team.
So you guarantee a Yankee victory?
Why is the bandbox an excuse for weaker pitching but not a reason for padded hitting stats.?
Dude, you’re just sounding a bit hysterical now.
He never said he guaranteed a Yankee victory. He merely noted that the Yankees are a better team than Detroit. Personally, if the Tigers end up playing the Yankees in the Division Series, i’ll be rooting hard for Detroit.
And i’m sure that RickJay—like every other self-respecting, mother’s-basement-dwelling stats fan—would also tell you that no-one can ever guarantee a victory in a 5-game series. You could put the Yankees up against the Nationals in a 5-game series, and it’s entirely possible that the Nationals would manage to win three games.
The beauty of the regular season in baseball is that it rewards long-term excellence. Any team can get on a hot streak, or lose 4 or 5 in a row, but to be at the top of the heap after 162 games means that you’ve been consistently better than your competition over the course of a full season.
While talent will often win out in the playoffs too, a 5-game, and even a 7-game series will be much more prone to vagaries of luck, a couple of outstanding (or really poor) performances, etc.
Regarding hitting:
The Yankees have scored 867 runs this season, while Detroit has scored 692. Yankee Stadium would have to be the size of a shoebox to account for that large a run differential.
Also, despite their homer-friendly ballpark, the Yankees have actually scored more runs on the road than they have at home. In Yankee Stadium, the team has scored 429 runs, with 126 homers and a team batting line of .283/.366/.490. On the road, they have scored 438 runs, with 105 homers and .284/.357/.470. Basically, they crush the ball wherever they go.
As for pitching, my initial reaction was to agree with RickJay regarding Yankee Stadium and its effect on pitching stats. But, having looked at a few figures, i’m not so sure.
The Yankees staff as a whole have a lower ERA at home than on the road(4.18 v. 4.53), and their WHIP is only a tiny bit higher at home (1.360 v. 1.354).
Similarly, opposing batters hit .252/.328/.413 against Yankee pitchers in Yankee Stadium, and .252/.327/.409 against Yankee pitching in other stadiums. So close they might as well be identical. The only real difference was in homers, with Yankee pitchers giving up 98 at home and 77 on the road.
It could be that there are deeper stats here that i’m failing to consider right now (GO/AO ratio, BABIP, etc.), but i’m not sure that Yankee Stadium has been especially brutal on Yankee pitchers’ stats.
But, as RickJay noted, the difference in pitching between the teams isn’t that great overall anyway.
Yankee stadium has been that, a bandbox with huge scoring games. It distorts pitching and hitting. Verlander, Jackson and Porcello may well shut them down.
I know you can not guarantee anything in baseball, but some of you are just so sure you have it figured out. The Yankee fans get that way every year. My brother has lived in New York for 40 years and I hear it all the time.