The season is over and so, actually, is the voting; the writers vote on MVP before the playoffs start.
So who should win the AL and NL awards? It’s a darned interesting race this year.
“Interesting” is right, in that the A.L. choice, in particular, will show us how important making the playoffs is in the minds of the voters. Big Papi David Ortiz would have the award sewn up if the Red Sox grabbed a wild card, and Jermaine Dye might have snagged it if the White Sox had gotten in.
Since neither team made it… do their stats count for naught? Do writers pick Derek Jeter (less for his stats than for being a key man on the top team)? Joe Mauer or Johan Santana, maybe?
Personally, I’d probably still vote for Ortiz (he sure isn’t the reason the Red Sox didn’t make the playoffs), but I don’t think writers will go that way. Nor do I think they really WANT to vote for a Yankee… hence, we’ve seen a lot of columns in the last few weeks sugesting that Johan Santana is really the most valuable man.
I’ll bet a quarter that the vote is very close, and that a LOT of guys get a lot of votes… but that Johan Santana squeaks out a win.
Johan Santana isn’t going to win the MVP. That’s what the Cy Young is for.
AL MVP will be Mauer, Morneau or Jeter. Probably Jeter.
NL MVP is Pujols.
I am rooting for Jeter to get the MVP, Morneau is the other strong candidate, but the very fact the Twins have 3 candidates will hurt his chances IMHO.
NL is Pujols or Howard. I would vote for Howard as he is the reason that Philly was in the race this year. I won’t be upset if it is given to Pujols.
Jim
In many seasons, you’d be 100% right. There are still a LOT of writers who frown on the idea of a pitcher being the MVP, which means that in a season where there was one everydya player with stellar offensive numbers and one pitcher with phenomena numbers, the everyday player would almost surely win.
But this year? This year there’s no clear favorite. There are so MANY possible choices, I think a pitcher COULD emerge as the top vote-getter.
l
I just cannot see voting for a pitcher for MVP who has les than 20 wins. 19-6 is good, but I guess I think of 24-4 or 25-3 as MVP caliber seasons for a pitcher.
Historically since Cy Young award was introduced.
1992 the AL had Dennis Eckersley - OAK 7-1 (51 sv) 1.91 93 SO
1986 the AL had Roger Clemens - BOS 24-4 2.48 238 SO
1984 the AL had Willie Hernandez - DET 9-3 (32 sv) 1.92 112 SO
1981 the AL had Rollie Fingers - MIL 6-3 (28 sv) 1.04 61 SO
1968 the AL had Denny McLain - DET 31-6 1.96 280 SO
1968 the NL had Bob Gibson - STL 22-9 1.12 268 SO
To me Santana does not measure up, but I forgot how many closers got the award.
Jim
In the NL, it’s Howard in a walk. His numbers were huge and the Phillies stayed in it until the last day.
Probably Jeter in the AL. Even in recent years, pitchers who have put up better seasons than Santana have gotten short shrift from the MVP voters. Somebody on ESPN had a good column about that last week. Santana will get some points, but won’t win. Ortiz will be hurt by the fact that the Red Sox collapsed in mid-August, and Dye’s White Sox faded and he ended the season on a weak note. Morneau won’t get the name recognition.
I think Howard will edge out Pujols for NL MVP. As for the AL MVP, Jeter will get it because–as was mentioned earlier–he’s the key man on the top team and overdue for the award.
And, to sidetrack this thread a bit, Johan Santana is a virtual lock for the AL Cy Young Award. The NL Cy Young Award, however, could just as well not be awarded this year since I don’t think there was any starting pitcher who was particularly outstanding over the whole of the season. I think they’ll probably give it to Trevor Hoffman for being nails down the stretch for the Padres while setting the all-time saves record.
However, I don’t think one can over-emphasize just how big Pujols’ 3-run blast against the Padres last Wednesday was; it is in all likelyhood the only reason the Cardinals aren’t back in St. Louis drowning their sorrows in Bud (We’ll save that for next week…I’m not real confident in their chances of getting out of the first round…). In one swing, he managed to rescue a team from going into the history books as having the biggest end-of-season collapse ever - that’s pretty much a textbook definition of “MVP”.
While I do give Howard his props - it was fun to watch someone chase 60 for once :), the fact remains that even those highfalutin’ statistics weren’t enough to close the deal.
While Howard hit more homers than Pujols, Pujols was probably a better offensive player; he had slightly higher percentages than Howard and scored more runs to Howard’s more RBI. He’s a better baserunner, too, for what that is worth. Pujols was every bit the hitter Howard was, and he’s a significantly better first baseman; he probably should win the Gold Glove. Even disregarding the fact that the Cardinals got in and the Phillies didn’t (the Phillies won more games anyway) I’d give a statistical edge to Pujols.
Lance Berkman was also excellent but not quite at their level. Miguel Cabrera, similar, but I’d put him a tick ahead of Berkman.
To me the complicating factor is Carlos Beltran, who was not at thier level either but is a wonderful defensive center fielder. That’s worth a LOT, as opposed to a first baseman. I am not sure it quite gets him past Pujols, but I’m inclined to say he’s right up there with him, and he deserves some credit for the success of his team.
So my ballot would look like this:
- Albert Pujols, StL
- Carlos Beltran, NYM
- Ryan Howard, Phi
- Miguel Cabrera, Flo
- Lance Berkman, Hou
- David Wright, NYM
- Chase Utley, Phi
- Alfonso Soriano, Was
- Rafael Furcal, LAD
- Jose Reyes, NYM
Those numbers were put up in the era of four-man rotations. We’re now in the era of five-man rotations. You can’t compare the two. If you had been writing in the 1950s you would have been complaining that nobody won 30 or 40 games like they used to.
How good are Santana’s number compared to other pitchers of the current era? How much about the norm was he? That’s the only question it’s legitimate to ask.
I don’t think he’ll be in the running for MVP, but that’s only because pitchers just aren’t given both awards in this era, not because he only won 19 games.
Pujols was third in Batting Average and second in HRs and RBIs. Some year he’ll win the triple crown. Then the argument will become “is he the best ever?” Could be. Could be.
Your statement is not true. Clemens only had 33 starts when he won, that is a 5 man rotation number of starts. This is the first year since the 162 game season came into existence that no one won 20 games. When Clemens went 20-3 in 2001 he only has 33 starts.
In 1999 Pedro went 23-4 in 29 starts and in 2002 he went 20-4 in 30 starts.
Thank you for assuming I would be dumb in the 1950s.
Santana’s number are not all that special and in many years in the past 20 are not even good enough for Cy Young, never mind MVP.
Jim
Then isn’t this an argument against dinging Santana for his lack of wins?
Of course not. The question that’s relevant is **how valuable Santana is as compared to other players. ** We all agree he was the best pitcher - nobody else in the AL was even close, really - but was he more valuable than, say, Jermaine Dye?
If Santana loses a degree of value because he only pitches every fifth day, that’s just the way it is; you can’t say he’s more valuable than Dye, Ortiz, Morneau etc. because he would have been more valuable if he’d pitched more. He didn’t pitch more. Pitchers are in fact not as valuable as they used to be; that’s just the conditions of the sport as they stand.
Santana had a great year but even by today’s standards it was not any sort of unusually fantastic year. It was not like Pedro’s 1999 season (when he really should have been the MVP.)
Why?
He failed to get to 20, in 162 games seasons, great pitchers that get MVP votes usually have more than 20 or are 18-2 or some such gaudy Win-Loss record.
Jim
I agree with this. Greg Maddux’s 1995 also comes to mind.
Let me just say about Ortiz, I personally could not vote a DH over another player unless he was light years ahead.
[QUOTE=brianjedi]
AL MVP will be Mauer, Morneau or Jeter. Probably Jeter./QUOTE]
In my mind you’ve just eliminated Mauer and Morneau. For me the MVP award has always been about a player’s worth in the context of his team’s season. I.e., the player is not independent of his team in this award. If there is a reasonable argument over 2 or more players on the same team, then none should win. I try to figure out who each team’s MVP is, and then pit them all against each other.
My pick is Vlad Guerrero. .368 in the 2nd half with a 1.047 OPS. He led the team in BA, SLG, OBP, OPS, HR, and RBI, most by significant margins. Nobody was more valuable to his team than Vlad. The ability to have such success in an offensive vaccuum speaks to how great his year was.
NL is Pujols for basically the same reasons.
I may as well provide my AL picks.
Several players had big homer/RBI years; the arguments around AL MVP have largely centred around who played for a playoff team and who didn’t. I’m disinclined to put a lot of stock into that; Jermaine Dye is not a less valuable player than Justin Morneau because the Twins had better pitching than the White Sox. It’s an individual award; if you want team awards, that’s what the World Series is for.
The big controversy, though, seems to be the candidacy of Derek Jeter. The controversy appears to be that he didn’t hit as many homers as some guys. Home runs are certainly very valuable but it’s possible for a guy with fewer homers to be a better player. To compare Jeter to Morneau, Morneau hit 20 more homers, driving in 33 more runs. On the other hand, Jeter scored 21 more runs, got on base at a substantially higher rate, is a terrific baserunner and a much more valuable defensive player (he’s not really a Gold Glover, but he’s a good shortstop now.) He also plays in a pitcher’s park. I certainly think he’s more valuable than Morneau (I don’t really understand the sudden rush to anoint Morneau as MVP in some circles.)
Indeed, I’d pick Mauer as being more valuable than Morneau, given his enormous defensive skills - Mauer is a sensational catcher.
So slotting those guys in, I come up with:
- Derek Jeter, NYY
- Jermaine Dye, CWS
- Joe Mauer, MIN
- David Ortiz, BOS
- Travis Hafner, CLE
- Carlos Guillen, DET
- Justin Morneau, MIN
- Vladimir Guerrero, LAA
- Johan Santana, MIN
- Vernon Wells, TOR
AL – Jeter
NL – Pujols