So, is Pujols on track for a 3rd MVP?

The Game Room
1

Pujols is leading MLB in HR, RBI, Slugging, and OnBasePlusSlugging, while hitting .364. I am pointedly biased, but isn’t this the track to another MVP? If this continues, does this cement him for the DropDeadHallofFame club? (Meaning, even if he drops dead at the end of the season, he’s done enough to get elected).

That’s another topic to discuss: name the playing DropDeadHOF players.

Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez?
Greg Maddox
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Ivan Rodriquez
Ken Griffey, Jr.

Can you supply some others, in addition to answering the original questions?

2

Well, as far as the MVP is concerned, among NL hitters it’s Pujols and then daylight right now.

As you point out, he leads comfortably in homers (10 ahead of his nearest rival) and OPS (over 150 points ahead). He’s also second in the league in average (.334, not .364), and is only 13 points behind Hanley Ramirez in that category. He has only 3 more strikeouts than home runs. He has 73 walks (including over 30 intentional, plus a whole lot more where the pitcher was so careful that he never even got a chance to hit the ball). He even has a better stolen base record than most of his nearest competitors (10 SB, 3 CS).

Comparing hitter to pitchers using regular stats (AVG, SLG, ERA, Wins, WHIP, etc.) is more difficult, because you’re talking about different types of contribution.

One possibility here is to compare a stat like WARP, which measures the number of wins a player contributes above a replacement player. Based on performance so far this season, Pujols is actually behind Arizona’s Dan Haren. Haren’s WARP1 (WARP for games played so far) is 8.7, while Pujols’ is 7.7. Their WARP3 figures (which extrapolates the figures to deal with a full season) are 13.6 and 12, respectively.

Of course, the title you’re asking about is Most Valuable Player, not Player With Highest WARP, and not even Best Player.

Many MVP voters seem to feel that a crucial aspect of determining a player’s value is the overall performance and final position of his team. So, if a team manages to win a division, or even just scrape into a playoff spot, a top player on that team is more likely to win MVP than an equally good player on a team that misses the playoffs.

I really think that there are some voters who, faced with a player who hit .350/.450/.700 with 50 homers while playing for a losing team, would not consider him for MVP.

Given that the Cardinals are in first place, and seem likely to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot over the next few months, while the D-backs are 13 games under .500 and look very unlikely to contend, this would seem to work in Pujols’ favor.

Also, however you calculate value, it seems to be very difficult for a pitcher to win the award. By my count, over the past 30 years, only 4 pitchers have won the MVP in all of Major League Baseball (both AL and NL), and all four of those were in the American League. The last time a National League pitcher won the MVP award was 1968, when Bob Gibson won for his incredible season.

I’d be interested to see if figures like WARP suggest that more pitchers should have won, but i don’t have time to check right now. It could be that, with the presence of a special award for pitchers (the Cy Young), voters tend (consciously or subconsciously) to favor hitters for the MVP, even if a pitcher has put in a better season.

3

There’s some closer in New York. Can’t remember his name. They say he has a pretty decent cut fastball.

4

I apologize to all the deserving players I slighted. I’ve not paid the best attention over the past few years to the whole league. This is one of the reasons I asked for suggestions.

5

I really hate the nitpicking and semantics fighting that comes with this decision. There are those who say “It’s the Most Valuable Player”, and that somehow means a player on a playoff team.

I personally can’t see this. I think it means the player you wish you had through the season. That’s the most valuable player, since we’re not considering the actual contract price.

Actually, you know what? I’ve completely convinced myself. This playoff team thing is nonsense. I don’t know who started it, but it’s bollocks.

6

You mean, if Pujols were to keel over and die today, would his performance to date guarantee him a bronze plaque? I say borderline. Ask again in five years and I’ll say Absolutely.

Currently-playing locks also include John Smoltz. I think there’s some question about Pudge.

Ryan Howard is on his way - the fastest ever to 200 HR’s, and in the post-steroid era (hopefully). Chipper Jones will get a load of votes, too

Three of the eight on Cardinal’s list came up with the Mariners. If only …

7

“Three of the eight on Cardinal’s list came up with the Mariners. If only …”

Three? I count two. (Randy came up with the Expos.)

8

Forgot to address this.

While i think he’s done enough to be worthy of the HoF already, if Pujols keeled over and died at the end of this season they would have to make some sort of special exception for him to get into the Hall. This is his 9th season, and the rules for Hall of Fame eligibility specifically state:

9

Howard is already 29 years old and isn’t hitting quite as well as he used to. He’s going to have to be very durable, or have another MVP season, to make it to the Hall of Fame.

10

They did waive the 5 year waiting period for Clemente so there is precedent.

11

That’s a different rule.

I would agree, though, that if Pujols were to die in an accident this off season, they’d probably waive the rule to put him on the ballot, in light of such an awful tragedy. He’s helped his team more in nine years than a lot of Hall of Famers did in their whole careers. He puts up an MVP type season every year.

A list of other surefire Hall of Famers is tough because we don’t really know how this steroid thing is going to play out.

Greg Maddux for sure. Randy Johnson, sure. Tom Glavine. Pedro. Mariano Rivera. I’ve got half a pitching staff there.

You could do a whole team:

1B - Frank Thomas
2B - Roberto Alomar
SS - Derek Jeter
3B - Chipper Jones
C - Ivan Rodriguez
OF - Barry Bonds (I think he’ll get in eventually)
OF - Manny Ramirez (yes, him too)
OF - Sammy Sosa (and yes, him too)
SP - Maddux, Glavine, Big Unit, Pedro… umm…
RP - Mo

I’ve no serious doubt all those guys will end up in Cooperstown.

12

Winning that second MVP could certainly help.

This page has a list of players who have won multiple MVP titles, and as far as i can tell, the only players on that list not in the Hall, or not mentioned so far in this thread, are Dale Murphy and Juan Gonzalez.

Gonzalez, of course, is not yet eligible, having played his last game less than 5 years ago. I don’t recall ever really seeing him play, as i wasn’t as heavily into baseball in my first few years in the US, and i wasn’t following players on other teams (than the Orioles) as much as i do now. He has good numbers, and a few excellent seasons, but if i were betting, i think i’d bet against him getting in.

13

Yeah, Murphy and J. Gonzalez just didn’t put a grip on the attention of the public and the writers for long enough to get in. I personally am against this Veteran’s Committee idea, because it starts to be sentiment ruling the day instead of strict judgment. I mean, this guy couldn’t get voted in for all those years by the people who had (sort of) just stopped watching him play, but you’re going to vote him in because he’s been such a nice guy in retirement?

14

If I was an NL fan he’d be my favorite player. He’s a stud.

15

Also Roger Maris.

Maris and Gonzalez are interesting in that they both won their MVP Awards for leading the league in RBI; neither really deserved either award, and Maris in particular wasn’t even the MVP of his own team. They were similar players, both righthanded hitting power hitters who didn’t do a lot else. Maris was a better defensive player, Gonzalez had a longer career. Juan Gone won’t make the Hall.

Murphy was also a righthanded hitting power hitter, also won his MVPs mostly because he was the RBI champion, but he a very good defensive player at his peak. He just fell off the table at age 32 and didn’t compile the big lifetime numbers.

16

Wow, i never realized that. I didn’t even check Maris because his name comes up so often in discussions of great players of the past that i just assumed he must be in the Hall.

I just looked at the voting for the years that Gonzalez won his MVPs, and in both years there were excellent cases to be made for other players. Especially in1996. I’m really amazed at how little love there was for Mark McGuire among the voters that year. Also amazing is the massive discrepancy, for Gonzalez, between runs batted in (144) and runs scored (89).

Gonzalez probably had a better claim for MVP in 1993, when he came 4th. At least he led the league in homers and slugging that year. It’s probably no coincidence that the three guys ahead of him in the MVP voting (who all had awesome years) were also on the two teams that went to the playoffs that year, the Blue Jays and the White Sox.

17

Right now, there’s no doubt Pujols would be the landslide NL MVP. In fact, I think the only suspense left is whether Pujols can be the first Triple Crown player since Yaz in 1967. Still, it’s important to remember that there’s a lot of the season left. Pujols could get hurt or go into a slump. Also, other players could still get hot and overtake him in the batting stats.

I think that mindset is considerably more present among MVP voters in the NL than the AL. In my opinion, there have been at least two occasions since 1968 where a pitcher should’ve been picked as NL MVP (Dwight Gooden in 1985 and Orel Hershiser in 1988) rather than the “everyday” players that were chosen (i.e., Willie McGee and Kirk Gibson).

18

Slight nitpick, Maddox retired at the end of last season, so he wouldn’t be eligible for the DropDeadHOF, just the regular in a couple years.

Speaking of which, he was just put into the Braves Hall of Fame, and had his number retired last Friday.

19

MVP is not always logical. Dawson won playing on a last place team.(87?) Without his great season they might have finished…last. But he pulled them up from last all the way to last. So, sometimes it makes no sense.

20

Bigger nitpick: It’s “Maddux” :slight_smile: