It becomes announced Monday, but I live in Philadelphia so all the tv stations are biased talking about Ryan Howard. They say it’s between him and Pujos. I find it hard to believe that Howard could win it. He was too unpredictable across the regular season, and playoffs. I felt that he was nowhere near as good as last year (but maybe it’s because I remember his screwups).
Anyway, does anyone think he has a shot, if not, who?
I’m also a Phillies fan, and although I admit I am biased, he does have a very good shot. He led the league in home runs and RBI, and it wasn’t even close. He got red hot in September–when it mattered most–and was hugely responsible for the Phillies’ postseason berth. Pujols had a great season, don’t get me wrong, but the Cardinals were pretty much done in August, meaning a lot of his numbers toward the end took place on a team that was playing only because they had to.
That being said, I still think Pujols is going to win it, but Howard will definitely be a very, very worthy runner-up.
ETA: You said he was inconsistent in the postseason. The voting took place immediately following the regular season, so no one knew how he would fare. Even though he struggled throughout most of the playoffs, don’t discount the two homers he had in that big game four victory in the World Series.
Whomever leads the league in RBI always has a shot but Howard would be an amazingly terrible pick, even by their already lousy standards. He was not one of the ten best players in the league and wasn’t even the MVP of his own team (Chase Utley was, IMO.) If chosen he’d be one of the worst position player MVP picks in the history of the award. He did hit a lot of home runs and that’s pretty much all he did; he did not do a good job getting on base and he has little defensive value.
Pujols should win it and if I had to be five dollars on anyone I’d pick him, because he was so much better overall.
The AL is basically a crapshoot. I’d vote for Joe Mauer, so he won’t win. Dustin Pedroia got all the coverage on ESPN, so he’ll probably win.
Sadly, I think Ryan Howard has a very, very good chance of winning the MVP award, even though Albert Pujols deserves it a LOT more.
Most sportswriters don’t follow stats deeply. They stick to simple (but misleading) stats that are easy to understand. They give wins waaay too much importance when they’re voting on the Cy Young award, and they give RBI’s waaaay too much importance when voting for the MVP. They also give waaaay too much credit to players from championship contending teams.
Ryan Howard has no business winning the MVP award, but I think he will.
Pujols played for a much weaker team, one that was never a serious contender for the playoffs, I don’t think he’s going to win it. Meanwhile, Howard hit a bunch of homers in September, which will gain him brownie points among writers who believe in “clutch” performances.
astorian, in addition to your reasoning, I think part of the reason Albert won’t get it is that he isn’t real warm and fuzzy with the media. Not hostile to them, but he doesn’t interact with them in an endearing way either.
Dustin Pedroia should get it, or maybe Kevin Youkilis in the AL.
When Howard won a couple of years ago, a sportswriter in St. Louis groused that Pujols was a “plus defender” while Howard at first base was “a reality show”. I remember that because I thought that was a hilarious description, whether or not it was fair. Anyway, has Howard’s glove been decent this year, and do the MVP voters care about fielding anyway?
Post Season stats do not count towards the MVP. All ballots are due before the end of the regular season.
How many Phillies games did you watch, anyway? This might be the most uninformed post I’ve ever read here.
To say “Ryan Howard wasn’t even one of the best ten players in the league” is completely asinine. He had eight more home runs than the next closest guy. His 146 RBI were 22 more than second place David Wright. He hit .352 when it was crunch time in September.
Also–and this is where you really show that you didn’t watch the Phillies this year–Chase Utley got off to a really hot start, but wasn’t the same player he has been over the past few years after that. Look at his average and RBI numbers, broken down by month:
April: .352, 10
May: .259, 8
June: .266, 4
July: .278, 4
August: .294, 4
September: .284, 2
If you’re going to make an argument for a Phillies MVP that isn’t Howard, it’s got to be Lidge. Still, I can’t get over your declaration that Howard isn’t in the top 10. I just can’t get over it.
Since Ryan is a St Louis product, I can’t root against him, but…
-------- Ryan ----- Albert
BA -------- .251 ------- .357
HR -------- 48 ------ 37
SO -------- 199 ------ 54
RBI --------- 146 ----- 116
FP -------- .988 -----.996
Albert did all this in a pitchers park (see link below). Busch had a .915 for HRs and a .962 for hits vs. Citizens with a 1.022 for HRs and 1.036 for hits (anything over 1 favors a batter, anything under 1 favors the pitcher)
So, Albert had 145 fewer SO, a better fielding percentage, BA over 100 points higher and all this in a pitchers park for half the season. Ryan has 11 more HRs and 30 more RBIs true, but playing half the time in a park that favors the hitter. In my mind, its got to go to Albert.
Pujols
Utley
Reyes
Beltran
Linecum
Santana
C Jones
Wright
H Ramirez
Berkman
There that is ten people (in no particular order) who were more valuable than Howard. I could keep going, I haven’t named a Cub yet. Howard had a ton of RBI’s, because he batted in front of great hitters. Put Pujols in the middle of the Phillies lineup and he would drive in 175. Put Howard on the Cardinals, he would barely get 100. He is a slow, 1 dimensial hitter who can’t hit lefties, and is terrible in the field. He is a good enough hitter to still have significant value, but not anywhere near the value of a guy like Utley, who along with being a great hitter, is also a top defender at a premium defensive position.
I somehow doubt that. 
Edit is my friend. I have no idea what you are talking about 
OK, for starters (and I should have made this more clear), it’s really difficult to compare pitchers to hitters in terms of value. Honestly, the top 10 most valuable players in the game are probably all pitchers, so let’s just leave them out of this.
That being said, Reyes? Beltran? Wright? You’ve got to be kidding me. Yeah, they’re valuable players. Without their value, the Mets might have missed the playoffs the last two years.
Oh. Wait.
Huh.
Well, Pujols should win. Howard will win.
Well, let’s take these observations in parts:
1. He hit more homers. Yes, he did, but that’s effectively the only thing he does well. Eight home runs is eight home runs, but what’s that’s worth?
Compare Howard to Albert Pujols. Howard hit 11 more homers. That’s worth a lot. Pujols had a batting average 106 points higher, an on base percentage 133 points higher, and despite hitting fewer homers had a slugging percentage 110 points higher. He drew 21 more walks, struck out 145 (!) fewer times, hit sixteen more doubles (albeit with 4 fewer triples) made 47 fewer outs, and was a vastly, vastly better defensive first baseman, and a reasonably superior baserunner. Are you saying eleven homers outweighs ALL that? Pujols had 160 Runs created, Howard had 113. Howard did this playing in a park that inflates offensive statistics, Pujols in a park that makes them appear deceptively low.
Pujols had more power, a lot more. He got on base more. He’s a better defensive player and runs better. That’s pretty much a ballplayer. What does Howard do better? Strike out.
2. He drove in more runs. Yes, he did. Look, RBI is a function of slugging but it’s also a function of opportunity. Howard had lots of men on base in front of him - about 75 more, if memory serves - and he chomped up 47 more outs to drive in those runs (47 more than Pujols, specifically.) Hell, just look at the runners on third; Howard batted with 42 runners on third, Pujols with just 21.
Every analytical stat I can find puts Howard way, way below the best NL players. VORP? Howard is ranked 30th in the NL. Win Shares? Tied for 12th.
3. He hit well in September. Okay, but games in April, May, June, July and August count the same. Games in September are no more important. Philadelphia won a lot of critical games early in the year, too; they were in first place at the end of June, after all. Why does Howard get credit for September but not for his bad months?
Games in April are just as important as in September. It’s the MVP Award for the 2008 season, not for September. If Chase Utley doesn’t have a great April maybe the Phillies drop a few games that make a different at season’s end.
And the difference in defensive value between Utley and Howard is just enormous, worth 20 runs at least - the equivalent of, I’d guess conservatively, 7 to 10 homers.
You can’t dismiss fielding value; it does make a big difference when comparing the best players. Howard plays a weak defender’s position and he plays it poorly. The difference between Howard and a good first baseman is 10-15 runs anyway, and between him and a good player at a strong defensive position, like second base, is even more than that.
Well, I’m a Phillies fan, and I think Pujols was roughly sixty-eight times more “valuable” than Howard.
And I like Howard a lot. I just also think failing to make an out is a really valuable baseball behavior.
But to answer the original question, I’d say there are exactly three serious contenders in the National League.
Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez.
I think Pujols deserves to win in a landslide, but I think Howard will win, and it wouldn’t shock me if Manny did.
In the A.L., the serious contenders, as far as I can tell, are…
Joe Mauer, Justin Mourneau, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youklis
I’d vote for Mauer and would be fine with Youklis… but everything I read and hear indicates that Pedroia will win. Not a terrible choice by any means, but I don’t think he’s even the most valuable man on his own team.
Any reason K-Rod is not considered a serious contender?
K-Rod finished a distant third in the Cy Young vote. Hard to see the voters turning around and electing him MVP.