This happened a few days ago, and I thought about posting a thread about it then. But then I thought, “Well, it’s rather trivial, and you should just forget about it.” But four or five days later I’m still thinking about it, so here goes.
The other day the Cubs had a man on first base with one out. I forget who was batting (we’ll say it was Coomer). Sosa was batting after him. The game was either tied or the Cubs were within a run. Over the radio, Ron Santo points out that if Coomer either strikes out or gets on base, Sosa comes to bat with at least one man on base. But if he hits into a double play, Sosa comes to bat at the top of the next inning, with no one on base.
You can guess how it turned out :rolleyes:.
If I was the manager of the Cubs, I’d have told Coomer that he’d be running laps every day next week if he so much as took the bat off his shoulder. I say, it’s worth it to sacrifice an out to put your best home-run hitter up to the plate with a man on. But the other side of me tells me that it’s unsportsmanlike, nay unethical, to deliberately get yourself out just so the guy behind you can hit with a man on base.
Of course, at the end of the day Don Baylor is the manager of the Cubs and I’m just a shmoe in Springfield. But I wonder if my strategy for the above situation is a valid one.
Even the greatest homerun hitters only average one home run per 8 or 9 plate appearances, and the good ones are more like one in 12*. I’d say it’s not worth banking that he’s going to hit a homerun.
*I’m going off the top of my head with these numbers, but they’re pretty close IIRC.
First, what inning were they in? The third, or the eighth? This makes a difference, which I probably don’t need to spell out.
Second, if Baylor was so concerned about a DP, why didn’t he have Coomer bunt the runner to second. Double plays on sacrifice bunts are rather rare, I believe. And, batters like Sosa usually hit much better when there’s a runner in scoring position, rather than on first place screaming “fielder’s choice!” to the defense.
Third, hi Opal.
Fourth, I see the Cubs are in first place, with a healthy lead over the Cardinals. I find it hard to believe that the best hitter they can give the cushy hitting-before-Sammy spot in the lineup to is Ron Coomer.
And if a guy was theoretically good enough that the team would just throw an out(and not even risk a sacrifice bunt) away to get to him. The pitcher would just walk him and pitch to the next guy.
I agree with kinoons that the Cubbies’ #2 hitter probably has a pretty good OBP so there are a variety of things they could have done:
1.) A sacrifice bunt most likely would have left a guy at second with two outs. But the only thing this gains is the slight chance of a bunt single and the elimination of the force at second on Sosa’s at bat.
2.) A hit and run would have been my choice for no other reason than I like managers who take risks on the basepaths. You would at least have a chance of breaking up the double that DID actually insue. Other possible outcomes include a hit and most likely having runners on 1st and 3rd for Sosa:). But on the other side of the coin he could of lined out, leaving our baserunner hung out to dry. But even in this case, he grounded into a double play anyway so that would be par for the course.
3.) Rastahomie suggested that he tank the at-bat. He could have gone for the walk but IMHO, a sac bunt would have been much more effective.
Tanking the at bat is not a good idea. You’ve just wasted an out without advancing the runner.
A hit and run is better good idea, although it doesn’t lessen the double play possibility as well as the bunt. If the batter swings and misses, the runner could be thrown out stealing. If the batter fouls off, they have to do it again, but now they’ve tipped their hand. If the batter pops up, the runner has to go back to first.
If you wanted Sosa up with a runner on, then sacrifice bunt, so then the runner is at least in scoring position.
And mouthbreather, concerning the homerun per at bat ratio:
Babe Ruth averaged 1 homerun every 11.76 at bats.
Hank Aaron averaged 1 homerun every 16.37 at bats.
Mickey Mantle averaged 1 homerun every 15.11 at bats.
Mark McGwire (through the 2000 season) averaged 1 HR per 10.62 at bats.
Sammy Sosa (also through 2000) averaged 1 HR per 15.26 at bats.
Everyone else pretty much took what I was gonna say (sac bunt occurred to me immediately as I was reading the OP), except for one thing. It’s not good practice to encourage a feeling on a ballclub that there’s only one player good enough to score runs. Having guys throw ABs away just so they don’t “screw it up” for the star would engender a pretty unhealthy attitude in the clubhouse. Especially on a first-place team.
Does it really matter??? C’mon, we’re talking about the CUBS here!! When the season’s over they won’t be anywhere near first place, or if they do win it, they’ll probably have to go to San Diego or somewhere, and need I remind you what hapened the last time they played in post-season???
OK, OK, they are in first place. Maybe THIS is their year. And Boston is in first place?? Hey, how about Boston vs Cubs in the series??? That thing would go on forever, no one would win…
If this was occuring in the 9th and the Cubs were trailing by 2, then what Rastahomie said sort of makes sense. However, if the batter can bunt correctly down the 3rd base line, there shouldn’t be any possibility of a DP.
In most cases, Baylor’s decision to let Coomer hit away was absolutely the RIGHT call.
To quote Earl Weaver: “If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll get.” Having Coomer make an out to get Sosa up, either by bunting or just by letting strikes go by, might avoid the DP but it will generally reduce the likelihood of the Cubs scoring runs.
Despite what announcers will tell you, baseball games are usually won by having big innings. Big innings require lots of baserunners. The good percentage play is to let Coomer hit and try to get MORE men on base so that Sosa can hit with two guys on and one out, rather than conceding an out and getting Sosa to hit with one guy on and two out.
Obviously it is much, much better for Sosa to hit with two on and one out rather than one on and two out, right? Well, even Ron Coomer is a LOT more likely to get on base than he is to ground into a DP.
In most cases, **the sacrifice bunt is a stupid play./B] Only in situations where there’s no need for a multi-run innings - e.g. bottom of the ninth, tie game - is it a good move.
In that situation, sacrificing the runner to 2nd would play into the other teams hand. If there is a runner on 2nd with 1st base open and Sosa coming up, they’ll intentionally walk him. Unless the Cubbies have a real dangerous hitter to protect Sosa…
Good point, spooje. I didn’t think about that. Open up 1st base like that and the other team can take the bat right out of Sosa’s hands by walking him.
