How many different people can you field who are a valid 3-pt threat? (probably no more than 2 if your best is 30%, but anyway…)
How many times have you shot 3-pts in this game? Will the defense expect it? How well has the defense done during the game against the Long Shot? Against the mid-range setup? Against the drive? Exactly how much time on the clock?
Is the defense over the foul limit (quarterly or 2-min or whatever - i.e., if fouled do you go to the line)
Can you spot your star “driver” against a defensive player with no fouls to give (4 or 5 executed already, depending on whether this is NBA or College/FIBA)? Do you have some other obvious mis-match you can try to exploit.
I could probably ask a few more questions. A good coach will have a play ready for the inevitable time-out, having considered these questions already…
Now if you’re saying that, overall, the chance of making the 3 is 30% and the chance of making the 2 is 50% (making it a pure math question) then you should go for the 3. But if you’re just talking shooting percentage, I can’t vote without having lived the game.
As a simple math problem you obviously go for 3, but that discounts almost everything that makes it a basketball question. A lot more information would be required to make a sound basketball decision like that, the math decision is obvious.
It is in the OP, in the following sense; a certain percentage of the time, going for a 2 leads to a foul, and a certain percentage of the time the shot falls, and the free throw does, and so going for the 2 gets a win without OT some percentage of the time.
No read my reply again, I specifically given an unknown win percentage in overtime and state that it must be greater than 60% to come out ahead by taking the two point shot. The 50% was the stated probability of making the regulation-ending two point shot.
Right, idiots do. Dating myself here, but before there were three point shots, I recall watching a college BB game. Team had the ball under the basket they were shooting at down my 3 points with 2 seconds on the clock. The announcers were saying “They have to inbound it and hope for a foul while sinking the basket.” I was nine or ten at the time, I recall telling my father that was stupid the other team should just stand there and be sure not to foul. Of course exactly what the announcer said came to pass and I concluded then that college basketball players must be stupid, and that if the coach knew his team were such idiots he was stupid not to have had them all stand at half court so they couldn’t foul.
In a pretty close game particularly full of energy it is pretty easy to get a foul on a shot. Some refs will not call it so it does depend on the refs and the other team.
We had a win last year in almost the same situation, the player dribbled down the court and passed the three point line. He realized his mistake and stepped back over the line hit the shot and he was a legend! We don’t have extra time in our games unless it is a final so we always go for the win, a draw is almost as bad as a loss. Please note this is Australian representative ball much like high school level would be in the USA.
Like a lot of people have said the game will dictate which shot you take not maths.