BCS Flameout ahead

The BCS is headed for a fun time at the end of the season. There are 7 undefeated teams right now. Texas,Alabama,Penn State,Texas Tech,Boise State,Ball State and Tulsa. There are people who still think USC is the best. How will this be resolved? Will the BCS take a big time beating at the end of the year?
Texas and Texas Tech play ,so that will work out .

Anyone who thinks USC is the best needs to be slapped with a wet fish. They lost to an awful Oregon State!

My Longhorns will hopefully take one of the listed teams out of the running this Saturday. I think it’s likely that Penn State will win out (isn’t it nice to not have a conference championship game?) and be this year’s Ohio State (getting routed by Texas).

'Bama might have a case but I suspect they will lose a game in the SEC, maybe the championship game. As far as Ball State and Tulsa go, I don’t think they have the weapons to win against a top 5 BCS team, but if they win out, I’m happy to see them get a shot. Boise State has already proved they can get it done…

Teams from smaller less respected conferences ,always think they are getting cheated . There will be a lot of crying this year. Boise and Ball State in big bowl games?

Personally, I plan to wait till early December until I demand to know why Navy isn’t in the title game.

Seriously, it’s only October. Everyone has - what? - five or so games left? It’s a bit early in the day for this type of offhand repartee.

If there were three or four or five undefeated teams, that would be a problem whether we were using the old system or the BCS. Now, if there are three unbeaten teams and there’s a one-loss team in the title game, that’s a BCS problem. But right now it’s too early for that. The BCS is deeply flawed for sure, but it’s not going anwhere for now because there’s too much money in it. But I believe there’s been a non-BCS-conference school in one of the big games every year, so they’re getting some representation, at least.

Oh, and this year, Ohio State’s not going to be in the championship game. There’s that, at least.

Boise State, Ball State, and Tulsa can forget about it. We heard all the hype about how deserving Hawaii was last year…and then watched them get blown out in the Sugar Bowl against the 3rd best team in the SEC.

If the records are even, I’d let the other two major conference teams flip a coin to face the SEC champion. Kinda like the nostalgia value in a 'Bama-Penn State game for all the marbles. Either we get a third straight national championship for the best conference in college football, or Joe Paterno gets to retire as champ…which he probably deserves.

There’s a decent chance that the SEC doesn’t make the mythical national championship if Penn State runs the rest of the table (probable) and Texas (possible) or Texas Tech (improbable, but possible) win out.

Of course if Alabama runs the table and Texas runs the table then I’d like to hear a hearty F-U to the Big Eleven for not having a championship game and sending one too many pretenders to the BCS Final. That said, Penn State plays very tough in bowl games, so I would actually not be surprised if they win it all this year.

Seven? I count eight. Don’t leave out my alma mater, Utah. Heck they are currently the only non-BCS team that would be going to a BCS bowl if the season were to end today (TCU and Boise qualify but only the top ranked team gets an automatic BCS entry). Not to mention they are also the first non-BCS team to go to (and win) a BCS bowl. That said I think they are unlikely to make it to a BCS bowl this year, they will likely lose to BYU or TCU.

The best chance for a non-BCS team in my opinion is Boise State, and they don’t look good enough to compete for the title. Although I would give them really good odds if they draw someone like LSU in a BCS bowl. But Boise is my pick for the only non-BCS conference bid. I think TCU is stronger but the loss to Texas probably will keep them out unless they really luck out. And I don’t see Ball State or Tulsa making the cut. For this there will be much whining among their conferences.

For the championship I think it will be likely Texas, Penn, and Alabama fighting for the top two spots. But in any case I think it very unlikely that there will be more than two undefeated BCS teams at the end of the season.

Yeah, Hawaii got its ass handed to it. On the other hand, Boise State gave us one of the greatest bowl games ever a few years back. IMO, Hawaii would have been on the borderline just like Boise State was if Boise State hadn’t won their BCS game. With Hawaii’s destruction, I think the odds are against any small conference team making a BCS game.

The BCS needs to give the little guys a fair chance. Scheduling and the BCS system combine to make it very difficult for an undefeated team from a smaller conference to make the BCS. Hawaii or Boise State are lucky if they can get one powerhouse team on their schedule each year. If they beat that powerhouse, the powerhouse gets knocked out of the rankings and the upstart team still has what looks like a weak schedule. If they lose by 1 to the number one team in the nation, it’s seen as a weak team coming back to earth and they’ll never make the BCS with a loss.

And, yes, I graduated from a WAC school.

The argument is always that they whipped every body on their schedule. How can they do more? The BCS bowl system rewards teams with weaker schedules. Years ago teams bragged about the difficulty of their schedules. Now they see that a loss kills them. So big teams schedule very weak teams. I think it hurts college football.

Would on earth would you give the SEC champion an automatic bid? They’re down this year – I don’t think even the most rabid SEC partisan could deny that with any truth. If anything, I’d say you give the undefeated Big 12 champion an automatic berth, and make the other two BCS conference champions flip a coin.

It’s rather moot, though, because I see Penn State winning out, Alabama losing at some point, and I’m not sure if Texas can make it through unscathed. In my eyes, the interesting question is going to be who Penn State plays in the championship game.

Oregon State is not awful, they’re average.

Having said that, USC lost a game so they screwed themselves. The rankings will never, ever, ever, rank teams sequentially from best to worst because different teams match up differently, each with different strengths and weaknesses, the best you can do is reward teams that don’t lose (but you must take into account opponents).

Here’s to hoping people will realize the BCS is a lot like the GOP – it’s a deeply, deeply flawed organization now requiring a complete overhaul from the group up.

And, hey – Oregon State is my alma mater, and they are not awful this year. They’re no great, either, but they’re decent.

Now, Washington State on the other hand. They’re awful. Both WA Pac-10 Schools actually, are awful. It’s painful to have connections to both schools and care about football.

How is the SEC “down this year”? Three of the current top 10 ranked teams are in the SEC…Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. Odds are year’s end will see at least half the conference bowl eligible, and possibly more. What conference is tougher?

Really, they should just award the BCS trophy to the SEC Champion, and let all the lesser conferences play for the “Pretty Good for Candy Asses, But Can’t Hang With the SEC” Bowl. :smiley:

The Big 12 has 62 wins compared to the SEC’s 58. Moreover, they’ve got FOUR teams in the top 10 compared to the SEC’s 3.

That would work out about as well as Hawaii’s appearance in the Sugar Bowl last year.

(Or, what everybody else said. Note to self: read entire thread before posting.)

College football has gone the way of college basketball. You need victories no matter who you play. I guess some division 3 teams are getting some good pay days being cannon fodder for ratings, but the game suffers. Who wants to see a big time program continually scheduling weak games? That is what the BCS encourages. That is what the NCAA tournament encourages. I think that is a big flaw.

We could throw a bunch of statistics at you but I think this one is telling.

Records against Top 30 teams in the Sagarin rating, by conference:

ACC: 11-16
Big East: 3-6
Big Ten: 7-24
Big 12: 7-21
Pac-10: 7-22
SEC: 4-21

Other than the pitiful Big East, the SEC as a conference beats fewer teams in the top 30 than any other conference. And as a percentage, they are ranked the worst at beating teams in the top 30.

Bottom line? This year the SEC is the worst conference in games against good teams. Worse even than the Big East.

It looks like no conference has a good record against top 30 teams. Just some are not as bad as others.

Well, yeah. If teams were getting beat on a regular basis, they wouldn’t be in the top 30, would they? But a 4-21 record against top 30 teams is brutal.

ETA: BTW, another version of this stat shows why Texas is far and away #1 right now. The 10 top teams in the Sagarin rating have five losses between them. Two of those were at the hands of Texas.