I know that there’s been much debate about Belichick’s decision to “go for it” on 4th down from the Patsies’ own 30, with 2 minutes left. I think that one could easily argue for the conventional decision (punt the ball) or the unconventional decision with the better probability of winning (to go for it).
Belichick went with the latter and I don’t have any problem with it. I’m glad they lost, but that’s irrelevant here. To me, the truly idiotic decision was to try and stop the Colts once the 4th down failed. This clearly shows that Belichick’s arrogance hurt his team. He simply assumed that his team would convert the 4th down and the game would end. He was completely unprepared to deal with the small probability that his team wouldn’t convert, which ended up happening.
Here’s why he f-ed up: When deciding to go for it, there were 2 important factors: 1) The Patsies’s probability to convert the 4th down: let’s just say that this is 90%
2) The Colts’ prob of marching 70-80 yards downfield for touchdown: let’s say this is 60%.
I have no idea what the real probs are, but you can come up with your own and the answer is still obvious.
Per my numbers, once the unlikely event of failed conversion happened, the chance of the Colts scoring a touchdown was even higher - with the much shorter field.
So why in hell did Belichick play any defense? He should have allowed the Colts to score a touchdown immediately. Then his boy Brady would have had plenty of time to come back with a game-winning field goal. Not a touchdown, mind you, but just a field goal! With a damn good kicker in an indoor stadium on carpet to boot! (no pun intended)
People may think that the Colts would have tried to run out the clock a la Maurice Jones-Drew against the Jets. Nope. They would not have risked not scoring the touchdown. In Jones-Drew’s case, they were in position for an almost-guaranteed field goal. The Colts did not have this option.
I thought of this immediately after the 4th down failure. But that “genius” Belichick missed it.
I listen to and watch all kinds of sports analysis talk shows. Everyone’s fixated on the 4th down call when they should be grilling Belichick about what happened afterwards.