Bill Belichick trips over his own ego

Sure, he’s a Hall of Fame coach, but he knows it too well. Unfortunately he’s lost most of the assistants who used to keep his gametime decisionmaking and clock management under control. Now he’s on his own.

That was an absolutely fucking stupid decision last night, and his ego is the only possible explanation for it. It cost the team a 17-point 4th-quarter lead, the game, any chance of playing the AFC title game at home, and maybe, with the defense completely dissed, any chance of getting to it.

Thanks from the heart of my bottom, Coach. :mad:

And go toss that gray hoodie on the bonfire and wear something you didn’t steal from the Salvation Army box, m’kay?

That or math.

From a Bengals fan looking at the Patriots recent history - Bite Me, you get no sympathy here. :wink:

I thought it was brilliant to go for it. It was the right thing to do, especially when you have the offense he does. Granted, I think they should’ve gone for the fake punt, but you don’t become a winner without taking a few risks. Everyone in the world (well, my living room) was expecting a punt and I was shouting for him to go for it. The fake punt would’ve been perfect, because the Colts’ need to cover the return would’ve meant that they wouldn’t have brought too terribly much pressure on the punter.

I’m glad we’ve got coaches that make the tough calls, and have enough faith in their players to go for it.

I said this on another board:

When pro coaches start calling plays like I’d call playing Madden football on the computer, something is very, very wrong.

You don’t go for it on your own 30 yard line. Every.

I’m a Pats fan and Belichek blew goats on that call.

It was the right call. If you run the numbers, it is the call that gives you the higher percentage chance of winning the game.

See, for example,

I have some sympathy for the argument that on balance one might prefer to take the conservative option and punt. However, Belichick has always been aggressive in these sorts of situations, so it is in line with his character. I have no sympathy for the armchair analysis being done by pundits declaring this “THE WORST CALL EVER!!!” So many football pundits are slaves to conventional wisdom and refuse to evaluate things rationally. Belichick has exploited this type of thinking in the past and will do so again in the future. It didn’t work this time (though the spot was more than iffy), but if it had been successful, we’d be hearing how shrewd he is. I just hope he isn’t deterred by the negative press. I doubt he will be. If this comes up again I hope he goes for it. But I hope he runs it on 3rd and 2 first!

So, it was “brilliant” because, despite being a risk with no corresponding upside and hugely unlikely to win anything, it was a “risky” move.

:dubious: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Hardcore Steeler fan here, so no dog in the fight.

If this was in Foxboro, how many of the fans would be cheering “Go! Go! Go!” and boo when the punter or kicker came on?

Fans love aggressive, daring coaches…until they gripe when those gambles don’t pay off!

Terrible call. Pissed me off. Sure, the percentages may have favored getting the first down, but the cost of missing it was far to great (especially with no time outs left). They had stopped Indy plenty of times during the game, he should have trusted the defense to do it one more time. Make Manning go 70+ yards in two minutes.

They would’ve controlled the clock, burned up the Colts’ remaining timeouts, and ended the game right there on their own terms. “No upside” my ass.

Remember that part of the problem was the clock mismanagement his burning the team’s last timeout at the start of the drive. That kept him from even challenging the spot.

And that too reflects that there’s nobody left around him who can say “Don’t be a frickin’ idiot, Bill”.

What’s he really got to lose, though?

the Pats and the Colts were going to meet for the AFC championship in Indianapolis. Regardless of what happened last night.

You’re in Indy, right?

no. I hate Peyton Manning with the fire of 10,000 suns.

They’ve got an easy-ish schedule ahead of them, though.

can you find me two losses in:

at Baltimore
at Houston
at Jacksonville
New York Jets
at Buffalo

You really going to fight this particular fight, with this particular poster? You’re very brave.

Interestingly, elsewhere on that site (last graph on this page) the same statistician states that going for it on 4th down and 2 from your own 28 is a statistical dead heat. And of course that’s in an average situation, which it wasn’t: on the road, in one of the loudest stadiums in the league, your chances of being successful on 4th down are going to be below average. Looking at the numbers and taking that into account, I’d have to say that going for it on 4th down might have in fact been the wrong call.

Sometimes being conservative is the right call; on the road, holding onto a slim lead, playing conservatively usually is.

I’m moving this from The BBQ Pit to The Game Room, with no offense intended to the OP. If things get too hot for The Game Room, the moderators there are welcome to move it back to the Pit.

Pit Moderator

Why didn’t he run it on thrid down i fhe knew he would still go for it on fourth down. Keep that clock running.

I don’t think that graph takes into account the endgame scenario. Here, if you make it on 4th down, you’ve effectively ended the game. If you punt, you’ve given a chance to the opposing team and if you fail to convert, you give them a somewhat better chance. I think this plays in favor of “go for it” as opposed to the usual situation where if you convert, you still have to drive 70 yards and thus accounts for the differing analysis.

This is also not an average situation in that both teams had extremely good offenses, and defenses that aren’t exceptional. Which means that a) they are more likely to get the 1st down. and b) the extra 40 yards is less likely to be a significant road block to the Colts.