I would have to agree with CNN or MSNBC.
Yes, they have more or less been predicting an Obama victory for several weeks now, but they are basing those predictions on polls from everywhere, including Fox News polls.
Just to let you “furriners” know, it has been a big debate on when to call the election because of time zones in the US. The reason is that if they call it too soon, while California and other western states are still voting, it might make people in the West less inclined to go to the polls and vote for other important issues and candidates. They got lots of flack in the past for doing just that and have promised never to do it again.
Thus, even though most news sources might be able to make an accurate prediction fairly early in the evening, and be biting the bit to do just that, they have to sit on their hands and patiently wait until the polls close in the West.
It is going to be difficult for some pundits to shut up for those couple of hours. I expect of lot of subtle “wink wink” going on while trying to kill time.
Assuming there are no huge surprises in polls vs. results, don’t be surprised if Obama is declared the winner 1/2 second after the polls close on the entire west coast.