That’s one of the challenges, isn’t it? It’s neither safe nor advisable to stay put if a big storm (Cat 4/5) is bearing down on you, and you live close enough to the coast where storm surge or high wind can be a big deal.
That’s also why I said “ideally”.
But here’s an example of “stupid people” for you all:
Hopefully someone will have a complete explanation but this is obviously incorrect. First there are about 275,000 lane miles of roads in Florida:
Second please explain to us how these half million cars manage to drive to work and school every day–not in 48 hour hurricane evacuation period, but rather mostly in a 3 hour morning rush hour period.
[Note we are not talking about evacuating out of the state of Florida but rather evacuation from the areas on islands and close to the ocean and rivers.]
Yeah, I’m in SoCal, and my employer did consistent and constant EQ preparedness communications and seminars. It only makes sense for them to do so.
We’re talking about different roads. Evacuation routes are highways: county roads, state roads, U.S. routes, and interstates. Particularly interstates, which is where the 1,500 comes from.
It used to be that officials would let northbound traffic use the southbound lanes on I-4 and I-75. Since Irma, I think, the state opts to let people drive on the shoulder instead.
Interestingly there was light traffic from Fort Myers / Naples on I-75 before this storm, which means people weren’t evacuating. I think the last minute changes in trajectory are behind that. It’s very difficult to find someplace to go within 24 hours. Then you have to actually pack up your things and get there. Residents fleeing Tampa had more time to get their affairs in order, and by Tuesday evening evacuees from Tampa on I-4 and I-75 met heavy traffic.
Irma that really made our road systems buckle - five days of congestion going up from Miami to Georgia, as I recall. In that storm, nearly seven million people actually evacuated. But a lot of people then were ordered to evacuate five or more days before Irma’s landfall.
Most people aren’t, you know, going to evacuate their homes without first having a place to go. And there is no finding a sturdy, affordable hotel within 100 miles 24 hours before a category 4 or 5 hurricane. Even Kevin Guthrie, Director of Emergency Services, came out and said Southwest Floridians evacuating the storm should drive across the state to Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach. That’s a good 100 miles, but those rooms were all booked within a couple hours. If you could pay over $100/night you could stay in Orlando. There were some availabilities but Orlando was also right in the path of the storm, possibly cat 3 or 4. Also everywhere in Orlando is close to water and at risk for flooding. As we now know, the entire city flooded. So the hotel-finder touted by the governor suggested Gainesville, Talahassee, Alabama, Georgia.
~Max
Well what do you recommend then, if as you’re saying, evacuation is impractical?
Happens all the time.
And evacuation notices are based on where the best estimates think the storm is going. That isn’t always where it goes; paths often change unexpectedly. (Ditto fires. And we’re no good at predicting earthquakes; and tornado notices may be a few minutes. Unstable ground/landslides may be more predictable – but when they’ll happen isn’t, and most people aren’t equipped to have the information that the developers chose to ignore.)
Evacuating everyone from what turns out to be the actual path of severe damage, in time to not have them in even worse danger en route, isn’t possible; even if everyone were ablebodied and financially well enough off to be equipped with everything they needed for rapid evacuation. And yes, plenty of people will blame those who didn’t manage to do the impossible.
The problem is that there are too many of us living in too many risky areas with insufficient precautions built in to start with. And part of that problem is that there are a whole lot of risky areas, including places that aren’t thought of as risky – places on earthquake faults that haven’t gone off for many years but are there nevertheless; places in alternate courses of the Mississippi River, which has been held unnaturally to one of its routes by the Army Corps of Engineers for well over a century; not to mention that almost anywhere can get a tornado (warning time quite possibly only a few minutes). Plus which, of course, there are now places which weren’t unusually risky under the old climate but which are now; and those which weren’t unusually risky while their old natural absorptive barriers were in place, but which have lost those to relatively recent development.
It would nevertheless be theoretically possible to move enough people out of the most risky areas so that the remainder could theoretically be evacuated quickly. But you’d be talking about, in the USA, making everyone move out of most of the East and West and Gulf coasts; as well as out of a batch of inland areas that are at significantly greater than average risk of landslides, wildfire, tornado, etc. If we get significant ocean rise, some of that’s probably going to have to happen anyway; but the politician who suggests that almost everyone has to move out of Florida, for instance, ain’t getting re-elected. Even if all they say is that everyone has to get off the beaches and islands and turn them back into unbuilt flood-absorbant areas.
Yes, people are stupid. But it isn’t necessarily the people who can’t afford to lose their jobs trying to evacuate several days in advance every time there’s a major storm possibly coming their way (most of which won’t hit their particular location badly enough to make it clear they were right), or the people who decide they’d rather risk riding it out at home than risk getting caught on the highway, who are being stupider than the ones who set up and help continue the overall situation.
What I’d recommend is indeed getting everyone off the beaches and nearly everyone off the islands (exception for historical communities on islands with significant high ground and/or a functional plan for keeping people alive if the place is under water) and turning them back into absorptive barriers; combined with strong requirements for new construction to be built to resist likely disasters of the given area, with funding for much of it to be for lower-income people, plus plenty of funding for modifying existing buildings; plus every area having clear plans for what to do in whichever problems are most likely in their area including a plan for moving both people and domestic animals, including those without the resources to manage it themselves, to shelters built for the purpose of being highly resistant to such disasters.
Some of that has actually been happening, particularly in new construction codes in some locations; but really doing it properly would cost a whole lot of tax money, would require moving a whole lot of people many of whom don’t want to move, and would massively damage the finances of a whole lot of developers, hotel owners, etc. So it’s not going to happen. But blaming the people who work in those hotels and provide the essential labor to keep all those businesses and residences that are in the wrong place because they didn’t manage to get out of the way of the consequences is both obnoxious and absurd.
I agree. That’s just not going to happen, ever.
We would sooner build billion dollar walls around our low lying cities to keep the water out.
After all, that’s what every kid does when the tide threatens his sandcastle.
As to the codes, the plan is and always has been to build back better using disaster relief and insurance money. We have some of the strictest codes in the nation for new properties. Of course this just means insurers are leaving Florida en masse, and all the small time operations go bankrupt every time there’s an actual disaster.
~Max
Public shelters are the solution. They are close to your house, free, and safe. School buildings must comply with strict hurricane building codes, and thus double as shelters. Local authorities can handle transportation when necessary. It is easier for the state to manage supplies, and if necessary staffing, as well.
Nearly 7 million were ordered to evacuate South Florida during Hurricane Irma, and 2.5 million in West and Southwest Florida for Ian. But shelters only have capacity for some 1 million people statewide. As only 5 to 10% of the population tends to evacuate to public shelters, this is considered sufficient… if it weren’t for the pandemic.
Not to mention the staffing problems, since local authorities tend to be inept at finding and training volunteers. Over the past few years we’ve heard reports of shelters turning people away, fights in shelters, people fainting while waiting for water, etc.
So at present shelters can’t handle the general population. That’s why we advertise them as shelters of last resort. I think, ideally, we would be able to fit most of the general population in public shelters as a line of first resort. Mass migration should be the last resort. Public shelter and safety in case of natural disaster, or war, is one of the government’s major responsabilities. But the necessary infrastructure doesn’t exist at this time.
~Max
Are you saying that public schools already are built to withstand not only the disasters thought likely in their area when they were built, but also those which could reasonably be anticipated; and that they have room to safely fit everyone who would plausibly need to use them?
Or are you saying that it would be a good idea if this were true, but it currently isn’t true?
Certainly a lot of schools took major damage from Hurricane Ian.
In Lee County, Florida, initial assessments of building damage show that just about half of its schools have experienced low impact, meaning they may need debris clearing, restored power and water, and cleaning, said Lee County Superintendent Christopher Bernier.
The remaining schools fall into medium and high levels of damage, which have more significant issues like partial roof damage or are temporarily inoperational and may need to be rebuilt.
Some schools elsewhere in the state were used as shelters. Schools are sized to hold a percentage of the children and a small percentage of the adults in a community, however, not to fit everyone even using all spaces not filled at the same time in ordinary use; if shelters are to be the first resort for a high percentage, I doubt that the schools alone would have room, even if they were all built and located to hurricane and flood surge proof standards. Trying to accomplish that would be a good start, however – and would undoubtedly also cost a lot of money, especially as I suspect some schools are located in what weren’t thought to be flood prone locations when they were built, but are vulnerable to floods now. Doesn’t help during the flood to have the building still standing if it’s under water.
Apologies if I’ve overlooked it in an article, but were the interstates reversed for evacuation (so that both directions were headed away from the danger)? I know parts of some interstates – for example, stretches of eastbound I-40 in eastern North Carolina – have double-sided signs, so the road could theoretically be driven in the reverse direction.
I’d say that shelter-in-place is the first resort- most hurricanes aren’t really worth worrying about that much - for most people, going to a public shelter for a Cat 2 hurricane is ridiculous for example.
They need much more granular and specific shelter and evacuation guidance- like to the block or something, not just some proclamation that everyone in a five county area should evacuate if possible. Basically identifying which areas are prone to flooding due to storm surge or high rainfall, and which ones aren’t. And then identifying (if possible) areas more or less prone to wind damage.
Not everyone needs to evacuate even for large storms. But there are definitely specific areas and specific individuals who do, and I’d think that they’re the ones who should be identified and have options ready in case of a major storm.
The law reads,
It is the intent of the Legislature that this state not have a deficit of safe public hurricane evacuation shelter space in any region of the state.
All schools built this century must withstand hurricane waters, except if the state finds that the region already has enough shelter capacity to meet estimated demand, or if the school is built in a designated evacuation zone. Many schools have also been retrofitted for this purpose. But the state currently estimates demand for shelter at 8 percent of the general population, down from 24 percent in 2000. See section 6 of the above linked statewide emergency shelter plan, Fla. stat. 1013.372, and Fla. stat. 252.385.
Schools aren’t the only buildings that can be used as public shelters. Any public facility except hospitals, nursing homes, etc can be designated if it meets the requirements. In practice it’s mostly schools. Using schools has a major trade-off, in that you have to close education services while the facilities prepare and operate as shelters. This was particularly relevant in Lee County where classes were held on Monday, which may have been a factor in delaying the evacuation orders until Tuesday. Schools also have limited post-impact use for the same reason.
“[E]veryone who would plausibly need to use” a public shelter is a matter of opinion. As far as the state of Florida is concerned, it means 8% of the affected population. I think I wrote previously, between 5-10% of people ordered to evacuate actually use public shelters, which matches.
I think it would be better if we relied more on public shelters. That means not only increased capacity but also increased usage of them. Ideally we would have capacity for most of the population but that’s wildly unrealistic. I think at the very least we should have capacity for a quarter, if not a third. Over time I think it would save lives, time, stress, and money. But that’s my opinion. I say emergency shelter capacity should never be less than the percentage of population living in poverty, but here we are.
~Max
As far as I am aware, they didn’t reverse the interstates but they did open up the shoulder as a lane.
~Max
Agreed. Most people shouldn’t be issued an evacuation order for category 2 hurricanes.
This is already the case in Florida. It is your responsibility to know what evacuation zone your home is in, and local authorities will announce when each zone is to be evacuated. If you don’t know which zone you are in, the maps are online and you can type in your address:
This information is communicated by social media, cable news, radio, newspaper, and emergency text alert. Authorities may also go neighborhood to neighborhood with a loudspeaker and issue the evacuation order by voice or flyer.
~Max
I wonder why, considering that the risks are now known to be greater.
To what extent is that because they don’t think those shelters will be safe, or because they can’t bring their cats/dogs/etc.?
I think it would be better if more peoples’ homes were so located, built, and stocked that more people could shelter in place and not have to congest the roads and further than necessary disrupt their lives. But that might well require more funding than shelters; and some shelters would always be necessary, because some disasters can strike even places built and located to withstand expected problems; and because, as said earlier, we can’t locate everybody out of reach of everything, even if everyone were willing to go.
I think even the homes of people living in poverty should be fit to shelter in place in, but here we are.
I mean, yeah ideally we wouldn’t live on the coast. But the reality is that over three quarters of the population of Florida - 15 million people - live in a coastal area. Depopulating the coasts is unrealistic, as is retrofitting their houses to withstand the strongest storms.
Hurricane winds will knock over trains.
Only concrete stands a chance, and even then you have to build them correctly as standard cinderblocks and mortar won’t withstand the winds. You have to fill in some of the blocks or panels to create columns of reinforced concrete. Your foundation needs deep pillons. You need roofing that is sloped on all sides, with steel hurricane clips and minimum overhang, rather than standard gable roofing (A-shaped). You must have impact glass and storm shutters. Also you must forfeit having a ground floor, due to storm surge.
~Max
Speaking as a waterfront Floridiot …
It’s trivial to build hurricane & storm surge proof housing & commercial, even right near the water’s edge. It is NOT trivial to rip up all 15 million existing coastal houses, condos, and apartments in Florida to build new such housing in its place. Plus of course all the commercial buildings that need to be torn down and replaced too.
The incremental cost is the real problem. Like double current practice, which for new construction in the last 20 years is already wind-hardened, if not overland flooding hardened. Any given spot along the coast gets a minor hurricane every 10 years and a major hurricane every 25 years. Minor = some flooding and tree & roof damage. Major = many buildings significantly damaged, some destroyed. How much are we really willing to pay to stop twice-per-lifetime damage from occurring to any given individual’s stuff?
As we see with the various Caribbean islands, there are two sorts of topography with different storm hazards. Mountainous islands receive insane rainfall rates and volumes on the high terrain which produces widespread mudslides, avalanches, and swollen river flooding. Conversely flat islands where the highest terrain is as 12 feet above sea level experience widespread seawater inundation of 5-15 feet a mile or more inland. Yo pays yo money …
FL is an example of the latter. Thank goodness it isn’t mountainous like e.g., the Carolinas, or we’d see whole cities swept away by mudslides.
Some thoughts about evacuation in general as applied to hurricanes.
My home is near, but not on, the beach. Those on / nearer the beach are planned to evacuate in Cat 1 & 2 storms. We are planned to evacuate in cat 3 & 4 storms. As @Max_S said, above, none of this is a secret: our county emergency management department publishes detailed maps of their plans. Our job is to do as told when told, if not before.
The intent of evacuation is not to drive across or out of the state. It’s to drive 1 or 2 miles inland and stay with friends, or in a shelter, or in a hotel. That’s how you escape high water. As the motto goes: “hide from wind, run from water.”
If every person who lived >2 miles inland had one friend who lived closer to shore and who they’d be willing to shelter for a few days, we’d need zero publicly funded shelters. We (society as a whole) don’t have that. We certainly have the numbers; we don’t have the social connections. There is a very definite socio-economic gradient as you go inland. Beachfront is rich, near-beachfront is semi-rich, next is working poor, then middle class, then increasingly comfortable class until you hit the inland limit of development at the Everglades. Lots of reasons the social strata don’t interact.
The challenge with schools, etc., as shelters is that it’s easy to build a building impervious to wind. A bit expensive at first, but trivial otherwise. But unless you’re willing to truck lots of dirt in from a hundred miles away, it’s difficult to build an artificial hill 10 or 20 feet tall to build that wind-proof building on. Height is the one and only defense against flood water. And when you need to go 20 miles inland to gain 10 feet of elevation, the flooding is shallow but very extensive in area.
If developers were required to build every house or building on a 10-foot rise with the dirt obtained from digging the roads a couple feet lower than the natural grade we’d be mostly done. Property damage from flooding would be negligible except right adjacent to the beach. With suitably armored utilities we’d keep the power on and the internet & water & sewer running normally. Once again the larger problem is replacing the existing 15 million non-elevated houses and condos and apartments with new elevated ones. And replacing the wind- and flood-endangered utilities with fully hardened ones. Doing new construction right is easy by comparison.
In a current shelter you can expect room for a sleeping bag, a couple meals a day, and that’s about it. Surrounded by hundreds of equally miserable people and their kids and in many cases their animals. It’s not staying at a Holiday Inn, much less staying at a Hilton. It’s more like jail. It’s hardly surprising this unpleasant situation is not popular with anyone but the truly desperate.
The solution to badly inadequate quantities of miserable quality shelters is simple: vast amounts of public money paid for by the taxpayers. Simple, but politically impossible. If I was to live here 50 years and pay taxes for a suitable shelter for me every single year, I’d use it for about 10 days over the course of a full life. Simply not cost-effective.
Perhaps useful (gift link):
Relevant, I think, particularly to Florida. They had a system set up to try to minimize the impact of weather disasters; and got rid of it, because it was interfering with the ability of developers to make as much money as they wanted.