Thank you for this detailed explanation. I hope you and your loved ones were not badly affected.
Considering the origin of real estate development in Florida, you’re not far off.
Zero consequence for me & mine. I even went to work & flew a trip the very day Ian was laying waste to Ft. Myers. Greater Miami had a breezy day with some rain. OTOH, that’s purely down to luck. It could as easily have been Miami or Tampa’s turn in the barrel vs Ft. Myers’ turn.
Out of curiosity, how much of the damage/issues were due to the fact that hurricanes typically go east to west and hit the Atlantic coast, rather than the opposite which happened in Ft. Myers?
My intuition tells me that it had a non-trivial effect on preparedness, at least in the sense of what kind of preparedness there was. I’d bet it was mostly heavy rain related, with at least a nod toward high wind. But I doubt storm surge was much of a concern, because most hurricanes will have traversed the state by the time they get to Ft. Myers.
Not true at all.
Florida gets many, many hurricanes attacking from the west coming out of the very hot water in the Gulf. The disturbance may well have started in the Atlantic, but it will then have worked its way over / through the Caribbean islands into the Gulf, then finally made the turn to the north and east that they all eventually do.
The issue is not “preparedness” in the sense of having supplies on hand, an evacuation plan, etc. The issue is “resiliency”, as in designing a building or a community to withstand the risks Nature poses with little significant damage.
Preparedness is in effect reactive, something you (try to) do later to make up for a lack of inbuilt resiliency that was skipped earlier. Why was/is resiliency skipped? Because it’s (very) expensive. And because humans are really bad at evaluating low probability high impact events.
It’s essentially the same reason people will pay $100 per month year-in and year-out in excess utility costs to heat / cool a badly insulated house that could have been better insulated for $300 one time during construction.
The only thing I know of that will correct consumer and business short-sightedness is government far-sightedness.
I always appreciate your posts on the boards - especially your insight on this issue. Dispel my ignorance, please - couldn’t interior rooms/hallways in most multistory buildings serve as shelters? I mean, all you need is someplace for people to huddle for a day or 2 w/o getting drowned/blown away. From what few images I saw, it seemed even on islands the lowest floors were destroyed, with a lot of window blow out but less damage on upper floors.
Sort of.
In an e.g. two-story building the ground floor may fill partly with water. You’re right that nobody on the second floor will drown. But …
Once there’s water in the building the electricity and hence HVAC must be cut off for safety and the plumbing may quit working. Both supply & drain.
The water invading the ground floor will not be pristine. It’ll be full of debris, dead animals, sewage, etc. If it stays around more than a couple days mosquitos become an issue.
Buildings can be built with all utilities intended to function with the ground floor flooded. But again that’s expensive compared to standard construction.
And if that is the plan, it’s even better to simply build a more-or-less standard building on stilts. That way when the “ground floor” floods, no interior walls or contents are damaged. The extra incremental expense of stilts is more than made up for the first time the ground under the raised building floods.
OTOH, ADA / wheelchair access to stilted buildings is a bear. Many adults who are far more mobile than the wheelchair users are still challenged by 1 or 1-1/2 flights of stairs. So now we’re talking elevators in what was heretofore a single-story building design. More expense.
The vast majority of buildings in the vast majority of e.g. coastal FL will not experience over-the-ground flooding in their design lifetime. How much extra are we willing to pay to armor every building against a threat that will hit 3% of them? What if 3% changes to 10% or 30%? Where’s the turnover point? And what about retrofit? And who pays?
As always in human affairs, inaction is the path of least resistance from other humans. Despite being a path of much greater resistance from Mother Nature.
Thanks. That’s pretty much what I expected. Yeah, it would be ugly to have to huddle in a dark hallway for a day or 2, using a bucket as a toilet. But it strikes me as preferable to death. People talk about the need for shelters and all, when what you really need is an effort to get people up to the 2d-3d floors of the most sturdy buildings.
I was looking at some post hurricane phots this morning before writing my post. I realized I was seeing some of the same buildings over and over. I am not downplaying the magnitude of this disaster, but it reminded me of one winter blizzard, where the news outlets were all showing video of snowbound streets. I mentioned it to a friend who was from the town in question, and he said something like, “It’s xyz street. Always horrible in snow. If you notice, all the pics are of the same street. The rest of the town was nowhere near as bad.” Just an experience that has made me think twice when I see photos (other than wide aerial shots) purporting to show widespread destruction.