I’ve had moderate success picking the ponies at Keeneland here in Lexington, but I mostly pick 'em based on past performances and related data in the program. I have hit a trifecta in one out of every 9 attempts betting a trifecta box (3 or 4 horses) according to my records…not too bad for someone who has never ridden or even touched a horse. I also have much success betting ‘middle-shots’ (for lack of a better term) across the board (win-place-show). I rarely attempt exactas, quinellas, superfectas, pick 3s, pick 4s, etc.
I could likely refine my betting techniques if I better knew what to physically look for in the horses prior to each race in the paddock or on the track while they trot to the post. I know it’s usually prudent to avoid betting a horse who sweats a lot before a race. Also, by my own observations, a horse who shits before the race never finishes in the money (top 3); however, a good piss never seems to do any harm.
Any other traits to look for? Any good books on the subject? Any advice from my fellow posters in Doperland?
I don’t go to the races very often but when I do, I don’t bother looking at the horses themselves. I simply back the second-placed favourite for a place. More often than not I end up ahead at the end of the day, although not by a huge amount.
My father, with whom I go to the races, has always used this logic too. Why though? Is it some suggestion that the horse in question is “nervous”?
I’ve only been to the track a only about 24 times and witnessed ~210 races, so I have only limited experience. I have definitely seen two favorites take a dump on the paddock and then finish dead last. Perhaps, these two would have run just as poorly without fertiliziing the paddock lawn…I dunno.
I don’t go often, but when I do, I look at the jockey’s record. They have a lot to do with whether or not the horse wins, and the good ones generally get hired to ride for horses who have a lot of promise. A seasoned track fly told me this is the best way to do it.
You’re doing it right as it is. All you are looking for in the paddock are warning signs - reasons to get off your pick. Past performances are the key to today’s performance - no matter how good a claimer looks in the paddock it won’t win a stakes race. So you are checking your pick to make sure that its coat has a healthy glow, it is not wasting its energy fighting the handler, it isn’t in a muck lather. If you know the horse it may be a bad sign that it looks lethargic, but then again for some horses it’s a great sign.
I have been betting for 40 years and have probably seen 20,000+ races live and while I will always check the appearance of any horse I am backing (I even check them all in the race day stalls before racing starts) formn is still the key.
A few random thoughts:
ckeck fillies and mares closely on hot days, some will disappoint you horribly when the weather is hot but you can pick their discomfort generally
when fillies and mares turn in inexplicable poor runs in spring it may be that they are in season - 42 days later the same thing will happen.
superior jockeys make a huge difference to a horse’s chances and it is a much under estimated factor. However the best performing jockeys are not always tne obvious ones. Look for the guys who only ride a few horses in the market but often come through on them. They are better value than name riders.
generally the betting market is pretty efficient, the first 2 in the market win 50% or more of all races. As soon as you start picking other horses you halve your chance of winning.
What’s odd about that observation is that heat cycles in horses are 21 days long. Are you saying they alternate “good” heats with bad?
Something that is said by veterinarians - Don’t bet on dead sound horses. There’s a reason they are so sound - they don’t try hard enough to pull or strain anything. I’d look for a horse with a knot or two on the legs.
Mares cycle every 21 days or so. The first couple of heat cycles of the year tend to cause more discomfort than later cycles, so I’d avoid mares and fillies in spring.
I’d avoid any mare who is obviously in heat, no matter what the season, since she’s likely not to be paying attention to her rider.
I would like to do this, though I’m not sure spectators are permitted to browse through the stables at Keeneland on race days. I will find out for certain. Thanks for the tip.
Unless you’re a stallion or have one handy - you can’t. Mares and fillies demonstrate no obvious signs of estrus unless there is a male horse present (unlike, say, dogs).
It is true that some mares have irregular cycles in the early spring. These are called “transitional cycles.” Current veterinary medicine is such that most of the time these can be cut short and turned into normal cycles. There’s no evidence that those cycles or any others are uncomfortable. Most trainers don’t worry about them, though, because being in estrus is a non-issue with most female race horses.
Many trainers keep their female horses on a progesterone analog called Regumate to suppress all cycling while they are racing.
