Sure, but are any of the actual elected officials who have called for Biden to withdraw pushing for a primary? My unscientific observation is that even among the general public, the idea of having a primary is much less talked about now than it was immediately after the debate.
I’m reasonable confident that such meeting has occurred and Biden has been thus far resistant, but as people like Obama and Pelosi have these conversations with Biden I think it will help to show a large number of leading Democrats agree he is damaging the party.
The thing is, we had a primary. I voted in it, for Biden, because there were no serious challengers. Because when they were putting things together in 2023, they were (frankly) either naïve or mistaken, and afraid that a serious primary would have made them look “weak.”
Had they had a serious primary, and had Biden won, I don’t think the calls for him to step aside would be as loud.
Had they had a serious primary, and had Biden lost, I don’t think it would have hurt the party had Biden rallied behind the candidate.
However, here we are.
There’s no “they” – no serious Democrats challenged Biden because they didn’t think they could win. Do you really think Newsom wouldn’t have run if he thought he could win?
Yes, I do think that. I might be wrong, but I don’t see evidence either way.
That sounds nuts to me. Newsom is ambition personified (and a very capable politician, IMO). If he thought he could win, wild horses couldn’t stop him running.
I’d say it’s entirely possible this Joe Biden giving himself a reason to eventually drop out. Just last week he said only God Almighty could convince him to drop out. Now it’s a measley MD.
It also give him an out – he could very easily have a minor medical incident, and conclude that he has to step down as candidate. No one would be that surprised.
The only “side” I’m on is the one that wants to see DJT defeated in November. I already talked about how I suggested months ago Biden’s poll numbers were deeply concerning. I would have been happy to see another qualified candidate get the nomination. But my concerns were handwaved away by other posters as being premature because it was too far out from November.
Other than that mess of a debate I don’t see much difference in the Biden of today and January. He is just as prone to stumble over the occasional word or to drift off topic. So those were things known months ago.
As for what you take as hostility it is actually frustration with the fact so many people are suddenly up in arms about things when there is nothing that can be done unless Joe decides to step aside. He is not senile or cognitively impaired in any way that is apparent. And even though someone made the claim a few posts back that he can’t read from a teleprompter, that is actually when he does his best and sounds strongest. So add those who actively spread disinformation about him to the list of things I find frustrating.
A more interesting question in my mind is “would Newsom have run if he didn’t think that running and losing would hurt his political career by branding him as a Disloyal Democrat?” There is such a thing as too much party unity.
(This is more a criticism of our system in general than the '24 Democrats in particular, though).
Agreed with you and @iiandyiiii on this point.
And therefore, if you believe that Biden is hurting the party’s chances, there IS something to be done – try to persuade him to step aside. I think everyone here is totally on the same page wrt “beating Trump is the most important thing”.
Newsom is a good politician. One who has maintained a careful alliance with Kamala Harris - they shared political consultants, moved in the same Bay Area social circles and carefully avoided running against each other in CA. If Biden hadn’t chosen Harris to be VP last term, I would have expected him to show more interest. But Newsom has apparently publicly stated he wouldn’t challenge Harris if Biden withdrew. I could be wrong, but I suspect he’s basically too good of a politician to consider burning long-term bridges by running against her, which means he was never going to challenge Biden either.
Ambitious Newsom may be, but if he does want the presidency it is rather more likely he is playing the long game and “waiting for his turn.”
I wonder how much of this is aiming for 2028? If Biden loses they could say “I told you so” and “I would have beaten Trump” and since Trump wins he can’t run in 2028 (because he follows the rule of law)
And there we have a Grand Canyon sized hole in the theory.
I think most people are waiting to see if that’s even a conversation that needs to be had.
Immediately following the debate there was a big upswell of support for asking Biden to withdraw his name from the nomination. Of course that conversation included scenarios about what moving forward without Biden could look like.
Very quickly following that was the backlash that Biden absolutely refused to even consider thinking about possibly withdrawing, telling everyone to hush up and support him, and most Democrats took their conversations offline to preserve the illusion of party unity. But leaks continued to trickle out, unnamed sources have become published opinions, and it appears the momentum is building again. I think if there’s any indication that Biden could be convinced to step away from the nomination you’d start to hear a plan for replacing him. I’m sure this conversations have continued behind closed doors. Maybe even quietly choosing a successor, or a few, to put forward.
FTR I think a primary would be a terrible idea. The Constitution may not cover this exact situation, but what we have here is a President becoming unable to serve, and American tradition clearly tells us who takes over for him.
We who read these threads are going to vote no matter what–practically speaking, most of us for the Democratic Presidential candidate.
Trump’s fans are going to vote for him no matter what.
The people who don’t watch the news or pay attention to politics–in other words, the “less-engaged” voters–are the ones who may or may not bestir themselves to vote. Those people have no remote idea who Adam Schiff is, and will never know. His decision to ask Biden to step aside will have about as much influence on turn-out as a snowflake’s movement has on a tiger’s decision to pounce.
.
.
Are the ‘Biden must stay in’ advocates even beginning to confront these facts?
All the ‘we must support him’ verbiage rests on the assumption that SOMEHOW, Biden is going to pick up the nine or ten or more percentage points he needs in order to counteract Trump’s Electoral College advantage.
Please, someone, explain the SOMEHOW. Spell it out for us.
And remember that when it comes to those of who are reading this board: our votes are not enough.
There’s no evidence Biden is 9 or ten points behind. At worst he’s a few points behind. And so far there’s very little evidence anyone else would do better. It’s just a guess. You’ve convinced yourself it’s more than a guess, but it’s not. It’s just a guess.
In saying how far behind he is, though, we need to remember that Biden probably needs to get to about 52% in order to overcome his electoral college disadvantage. So however many points he’s “really” down by, you should mentally add a couple.
It’s true there’s no clear evidence that anyone else would do better, but OTOH there’s no clear evidence that they wouldn’t. In the absence of such evidence, I find it much easier to imagine a new and lesser-known candidate making up that gap as opposed to Biden, who everyone has already formed entrenched opinions of.