I don’t see any kind of medical requirements standing up to non-discrimination lawsuits from the EO and similar legislation. That’s influencing how I view the situation. It seems explicitly discriminatory to have the requirements to participate in women’s sports have as a condition meeting biological standards equivalent to genetically XX athletes.That seems like an unfair burden to apply to genetically XY athletes. Even if sports have these requirements now, the EO and other non-discriminatory actions seem like they will mean that such requirements will not be upheld in the future.
So I see this leading to a future where there needs to different classes or categories of women sport to account for these vastly different athletic abilities. Similar to how wrestling went from everyone in one category to weight classes, women’s sports may go from one category to categories based on ability. Right now it seems we are stuck in the mentality of having trans athletes compete in the existing categories, but that is going to be problematic in the same way as weight differences are in wrestling. If most wrestlers are within a small weight range, then classes aren’t necessary (e.g. everyone about 150 pounds). But then if a 300 pound wrestler comes along, it doesn’t make sense to just have that person compete with the other 150 pound wrestlers. And the other side of having a 300 pound person wrestling 150 pound people is that the bigger wrestler is not experiencing the satisfaction of true competition. So I see this as trying to figure out how we have women competing together when one group of women are statistically in the range of genetically XX people, while another group of women is several standard deviations higher in athletic ability. Just throwing them all together to fight it out doesn’t seem like a good solution for either group.