Biden: Putin "cannot remain in power."

Politics & Elections
21

As much as I would like to see Russia cede all of the territory it has ‘annexed’ (i.e. taken by force) from Ukraine, the odds that Putin or any successive Russian leader will give up Crimea is negligible, and at least taking the ethinically-Russian dominated Donetsk and Luhansk lets them claim a ‘moral victory’. Unless there is total regime change—not just deposing Putin but sweeping away the entire oligarchical-autocratic governing powers of Russia—or an utter collapse of all military and civil authority, total retreat just isn’t going to happen. And I don’t think there is any real appetite for that among the bulk of the Russian people who recall what Russia was like in the mid-‘Nineties and think that a powerful autocrat who can keep the economy at least fitfully chugging along is better than starving under the theoretical benefits of a liberal democracy.,

The US has long been about speaking for all of NATO first and then asking for consensus after. It is one of the reasons that many NATO members are not all that enthusiastic about meeting their obligations to NATO despite the ostensible security advantages. Remember when the US decided to deploy new Pershing II and GLCM nuclear-armed missiles in West Germany without actually consulting the West German government?

Stranger

22

I didn’t look hard, but saw an article with reactions from Russia, The White House policy folk, Macron, etc.:
Yahoo article —
FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON

“I wouldn’t use this type of wording because I continue to hold discussions with President Putin,” Macron told France 3 TV channel in remarks aired on Sunday.

The French president said he was seeking to hold more talks with Putin regarding the situation in Ukraine as well as an initiative to help people leave the besieged city of Mariupol in the coming days.

“We want to stop the war that Russia has launched in Ukraine without escalation – that’s the objective,” he added, noting the objective is to obtain a ceasefire and the withdrawal of troops through diplomatic means.

“If this is what we want to do, we should not escalate things – neither with words or actions,” he said.

————
I thought Biden’s remarks sounded intentional rather than ad libbed. My immediate reaction was negative, since the US and NATO are not going into Russia and take out Putin. But now, I shrug. Biden’s words were more restrained than Russia’s threats of using nuclear weapons. And a lot more restrained that Republican threats to overthrow the US government and imprison political rivals. Shrug.

I’m open to the the idea that it may encourage Putin’s internal enemies to take practical action, or that it will let Vlad be satisfied with just staying in power.

As a side point, I don’t have strong opinions about the Crimea, but do think that after Russian leaves Ukraine they should provide billions in reparations. I can’t see Putin going along that. Ukraine might be able to overlook the need for reparations if Putin is gone, and the West helps them rebuild. But if Putin just withdraws and leaves a mess, NATO will be liquifying Russian assets (great deals on mega-yachts) and maintaining sanctions.

So, Biden’s message was very sane, even if the diplomatic core was obliged to immediately smooth it over.

23

Not sure. I hope it is in a box at this point, but we aren’t going to kill him.

How can he ever attend another summit after this? I guess if Trump is president again, he can at least have friendly relationships with him.

24

What does Macron think further discussions with the madman will accomplish? Is there any reason to believe that they will accomplish anything more than all his previous discussions, namely, exactly nothing?

If it’s impossible to reach a rational, mutually beneficial agreement because your opponent is a tyrannical madman, then what else is there? I think that was Biden’s point, and whether he intended to say it or not, he was right.

25

I think Macron’s position is a bit more pragmatic and self-serving:

SOURCE

None of this will make us re-evaluate our dependence on fossil fuels, but it definitely should.

Germany and France made deals with a guy with horns, who – maybe not surprisingly – turned out to be the devil.

ETA: broadening the list, for additional context:

26

The national security vulnerability of reliance on foreign energy, especially oil and gas, should have long been considered a reason to transition to more sustainable energy sources even aside from economic, general pollution, and climate change concerns. This is certainly the reason China is developing so many alternatives.

Stranger

27

You’re singing my song – one I’ve sung loudly and proudly for decades by now.

It’s very difficult to argue that this issue isn’t the apotheosis of ‘monied special interests’ in action.

I’ve also said in the past that maybe it’s time we set the economists loose on calculating the true price of energy (mindful of no end of externalities) in this country, and adding those costs back in at the consumer level.

It’s another case where we’ve privatized profit and socialized loss, but we’ve buried the math quite well and deeply. Maybe if it were more visible, more prominent, more immediate, and more sensible, it would also be more urgent and impactful.

We’re asking the Russian citizenry to take action, largely based on their threshold for pain. Maybe it takes something similar in our own to make leviathan changes for the better.

[I won’t take this tangent any further, but I think the underlying point about reliance on bad actors for mission critical items is germane]

28

I lied.

Denis Leary. About a minute.

I think it’s at least a bit relevant (and maybe a lot funny) - NSFW - language:

Macron and Scholz … so far … most notably.

29

Yes, that is why I phrased it like I did - [including Crimea?]. In a best case scenario it would be nice for Ukraine to get it back. But realistically it does predate the invasion by many years so it seemed unlikely.

The dilemma for me is that I want peace more than anything. It literally pains me to see innocents suffering due to an out of touch, power mad ruler. But peace at what cost?? If we give up too much to accomplish peace - - - will that not reinforce Putin’s penchant for taking what he wants whenever he believes he can get away with it? This seems like a Neville Chamberlain moment to me; do not overly appease the mad dog. (And on the other hand, do not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. That would be a good debate to have-- I would like to read it.)

It seems to me you just recently argued that the entire Russian military has – if not collapsed, has very limited ability. I recall believing it was a feign, a bluff because they are so inept-- but I considered your points and recast my views.

I believe deposing Putin would cause a regime change that could accomplish much. The actual form of government does not seem as important to me as who is running the shop and what their specific goals are. A benevolent autocrat will use his oligarchs differently, or create new ones more in line with a progressive agenda. Your views on what Russians want do not match what the one Russian National I know wants. Very small sample but . . . .

Thank you for the article.

I would love to see Trump and Putin teamed up again- just not as world leaders- instead where they really shine! They should be transported to a remote and secret deserted island for a very special season of Survivor; the Autocrat version. They each get to bring (#??) say a hundred sycophants to do their bidding and there are poorly constructed wooden forts built at opposite ends of the island. All of the games/competitions are versions of capture the flag with elements of dodgeball thrown in. They are given lots of blunted medieval style weapons (lots of shields and armor to limit bodily harm) and each get four. muzzle loading weapons but no ammunition or powder – or anything to make powder out of (like potassium nitrate or sulfur for example). The rules would allow them to add sycophants if they capture the other guy’s flag, or to get better armor or other protective gear if they reach certain borders (like being crowned in checkers).

If this were to happen (outside the fantasy world in my mind), I would expect the first act of the sycophants would be tossing aside tribalism to build a big, beautiful dais (really, the best dais ever built- believe me!) for the two rulers to sit side by side and watch the others do their bidding. The ladder ascending to Putin’s side of the dais would be decorated with soviet imagery- hammer and cycle, etc. Trump’s ladder would have a big beautiful American flag – and many even bigger Trump flags! They would have emissaries mount the dais and receive orders at the far end of the desk- then the men would slide to the middle portion, turn and smile at each other kindly as they plot the doom of the other! It would be the greatest reality show since the gladiators of ancient Rome. (My own neighborhood is half full of people who would LOVE to be the ones selected to serve Trump directly-- they would never run out of volunteers that I can see. The soldiers/sycophants would use filthy latrines-- both Putin and Trump would have gold plated toilets!) Apologies for this sidetrack.

Are you meaning Putin? Or oil company executives here? I really cannot tell.

30

In this specific case, we know that Russian gas is at least partly produced and sold by a State-owned company, Gazprom, so the regime and the energy industry may be virtually inseparable, particularly if one subscribes to the corruption theory that says that none of these oligarchs makes money without a tithe to Bad Vlad.

Which makes it more difficult for any nations largely or wholly dependent on Russian energy to take strong stands against even the unconscionable actions we’re witnessing right now.

[And makes it much more laudable when some nations say, basically, “Fuck our parochial pecuniary interests. This guy’s insane !”]

In general, I mean countries and governments whose interests and policies are basically hostile to ours. It’s very hard to ‘discipline’ China for inarguable human rights violations when probably the overwhelming majority of stuff that most of us buy depends on Chinese resources and manufacturing base.

Ditto much of OPEC.

Governments allow it. Corporations and consumers tend to profit from it. There’s more than enough blame to go around.

31

There certainly is! I did not expect it to circle back to me – but it did. I certainly benefit from affordable oil.

32

Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper seems to have no problem with Biden speaking the truth, and speculates that the intended audience may have been the Russian people. By any rational calculus, that’s where regime change is going to come from, not from the outside, even if “Russian people” turns out to mean special operatives within the FSB.

33

Does anybody think a small tour group of Colombians would be conspicuous in Moscow about now ?

34

It will be interesting to see how the Republicans react to this. On the one hand, there is the instinctual urge to magnify any possible mistake of Biden as the worst idea ever conceived. However if they do so the obvious rejoinder is “Oh, so you think Putin SHOULD remain in power?”, which is inconvenient given they are in the process of trying to reverse course and distance themselves from their previous pro Putin stance.

35

I’m not sure of which specific post you are referring to, but while it is clear that the Russian Army has a very limited ability to project power or advance against even modest opposition, they have a great mass of (mostly conscript) soldiers and equipment that they can continue to throw into the grinder as long as the Russian government has political will and the military leadership does not remonstrate. I know there are people who believe in hopeful pleading that the failures we observe is the Russian Army on the very of collapse but really this is just they way it operates; less as a modern army with a core of professional NCOs to maintain small unit leadership and technical competency than a massive rabble of barely-trained conscripts led by senior officers, most of whom have never seen large scale combat in their careers.

The Russians really can’t win, albeit more because of the limits of their logistics and the bad planning invade just as the luscious, top soil-rich fields of the East European Plain is thawing into tank-swallowing hot fudge, and the Ukrainians are not going to stop harrassing the ever-loving shit out of occupying Russian forces as long as they have anti-tank rockets, MANPADS, drones, guns, knives, and sharp sticks. But until the political and military leadership is willing to admit defeat—and they can’t while still maintaining any image of being a strong regional power—they’re going to remain the Donbas and Crimea like a dug in tick.

Although Putin has done a good job of eliminating anyone who might seriously challenge him, he has surrounded himself with like-minded functionaries and as a coterie of advisors who hold even more extreme views about the manifest destiny of Russia. When you are dealing with people who refer to Moscow as “The Third Rome” you know that they’re either seriously into to medieval cosplay or are seriously deluded about the influence of Russia. “Benevolent autocrats” generally seem to find themselves deposed by their more ruthless brethren even when they are making the general public pretty happy, and finding “benevolent autocrats” in the history of Russia is like looking for virgins in a whorehouse.

Stranger

36

Or if he gets invited to a toga party:
“Et tu Mikhail, Dmitri, Ivan?”

37

To an extent. But part of Biden’s criticism of Trump was that he wreaked havoc on our alliances, particularly NATO, and that Biden would act in a more collaborative posture.

Obviously none of us can know for certain whether this was an intentional act, but I think the evidence weighs heavily against it. If the goal was to give a wink and a nudge to potential Russian coup plotters or a people’s uprising, they immediately undercut themselves by having Biden’s own Secretary of State fall all over himself to disavow that the Administration is seeking regime change. How are counter-Putin forces to know what the Administration’s real position is? They would be risking their neck if they tried to move against Putin, and it’s now clear as mud if and how the West would support or oppose them.

38

Two questions worth pondering:

  • Are they really like-minded, or merely opportunists dedicated to self-preservation and self-enrichment?

  • If something highly unfortunate should happen to Putin – who at this point is pretty much stuck with the consequences of his ill-advised decisions – would they think it wise to go down the same path?

39

OK, so Biden hurt Putin’s feelings.

You know what? I don’t give a damn about Putin’s feelings. Everyone keeps saying we need some way for him to “save face”. No, we really don’t. If Putin wanted to save face, he should have thought of that before he force-fed it to the leopard. He has no face left to save at this point, and we might as well admit it.

40

Or, as CNN anchor Pamela Brown commented in that interview with James Clapper, “Biden probably won’t be getting a Christmas card from Putin this year”. :grinning: