Biden / Trump first debate: possible outcomes and impact on election odds

Politics & Elections
1

My thinking is that the possible outcomes are

  1. Both handle the questions relatively well
    • Odds remain unchanged
  2. Trump has several deranged answers, Biden is ~OK
    • Some independents swing to Biden
    • Odds move slightly in Biden’s favor
  3. Biden has several ‘senior moments’ and bad answers, Trump is ~OK
    • Tons of independents swing to either Trump, or towards not voting
    • Odds move strongly in Trump’s favor
  4. Both Biden and Trump have a disastrous night
    • Odds remain unchanged

Any other outcomes? Do you agree with the list above?

If the above list correct, Biden has more riding on this debate than Trump

2

I will guess 2.

3

Same here. We’ve seen this show before. It’s always been that. No reason to expect anything different.

4
  1. People are not watching nor do they care or know there is a debate tonight.

Late: this is not a knock on your post. Just me trying to find a place to watch in public and realizing I’m going to have to go home to do it.

5

Trump will (might) answer questions with as few words as possible, then just make random baseless claims and attacks about the “Biden crime family” and “corrupt/evil democrats” and go on to say how he will MAGA and try and spin HIS schtick as absolutely necessary to “Save America.”

No effects to people’s votes.