You know, it’s a lot easier to list “won’ts” than “wills.”
Won’t be less than a Senator or Governor.
Won’t be from a coastal elite blue state (and definitely not NY or CA)
Won’t be within 20 years of Biden’s age.
Won’t be unknown to 99% of the public, unless she’s a poc.
Gretchen Whitmer says she’s not a candidate. Amy Klobuchar is 18 years younger, Michelle Lujan Grisham 17, Maggie Hassan 15, and Tammy Baldwin 19.
The 20 year figure is fudgable, so Klobuchar, Grisham, Hassan, and Baldwin are probably still in the race. A VP nod can change a mind, so maybe Whitmer.
Grisham, Hassan, and Baldwin are 99% unknowns. Whitmer has had some press lately but at best squeaks over to 98% unknown. Klobuchar has some national recognition (29% have an opinion about her) and Dems like to pick VPs from people who were in primaries.
Catherine Cortez Masto is young (21 years youner than Biden) but only has three years of Senate experience, which is way too little. OTOH, she’s Latina and that’s huge. OTOH again, in Nevada the governor gets to pick a replacement for a vacant Senate seat and the Nevada governor is a Republican. The Dems can’t possibly afford to lose a Senate seat. The governor of Wisconsin is a Democrat.
There is no way I could see it be Whitmer. In a normal year sure. Right now she is the governor of a state in the middle of an apocalypse. How would it look if she took off time to campaign for a different job?
Right. No governor wants to look as if they abandoned a crisis for personal gain. Which is the same answer to septimus’ “champion,” such a flamboyantly disastrous idea that I’m surprised Trump didn’t say it.
I agree Whitmer’s becoming more of a long shot. Even if the coronoavirus starts to level off by summer, there’s no way the Dems would want to risk a flair-up in September or October, where she’s needed in Lansing to do some serious governin’.
As I said in the other thread about the Champion… you want to completely piss off African-American voters? Then replace the candidate they came out in droves to vote for. I can just see crowds of black Democrats chanting “Black Votes Matter” in response… which would not look good to say the least.
They most definitely would be. A lot of black voters are proud that they were so essential to Biden’s primary victory. I know Twitter isn’t real life, but I’ve seen meme after meme about the “Establishment” that Sanders supporters trash are older black voters.
Biden isn’t their hero. He’s a safe trustworthy candidate so they voted for him. Black Biden voters wouldn’t be anymore worked up than white Biden voters about these suggested shenanigans.
Black twitter, as far as I can tell. Who are also upset at black voters being called ‘low information voters’ by some on the left.
I mean turnout was way up in SC, VA, etc, consisting of African-Americans who came out in droves to vote Biden. There is a belief, among the pundits as well as black voters I’ve seen, that Biden owes his victory to Clyburn and the high black turnout in South Carolina.
The other Tammy is an Illinois senator, 26 years younger than Biden and on the more moderate side if that is a factor in Biden’s calculation. However she hasn’t completed her first term and I have no idea how unknown she is to the public.
I have to assume Klobuchar is the favorite, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it is anybody off that list.
Well, South Carolina undoubtedly saved Biden. But black voters in California sure didn’t. So I don’t buy black twitter’s take. This was a safe centrist Dem thing, of which black SC primary voters are mostly comprised.
You’re correct. Somehow I got it in my head that she was still in the House. That puts her in the same category as Cortez Masto, as both are still first-term Senators. I would put Duckworth slightly behind, as there are more Latinx than Asians and Nevada is a shakier state than Illinois. (That assumes a VP can make a difference in a close state, for which solid evidence is also shaky.)
I agree it could be anybody on my list. This of all years, though, a VP nominee is going to find getting attention to be difficult, another reason to choose someone as already familiar as possible.
Turnout was up in many states this primary and a lot of that increase was black voters coming out to vote for Biden, not just in SC, but in many Super Tuesday states (Virginia and North Carolina in particular), and in Alabama and Mississippi (20% higher than 2016), where the majority of Democratic primary voters are black voters. And consider 55% of all black people in the US live in the South (18 percent in the Midwest, 17 percent in the Northeast, and 10 percent in the West) according to the 2010 Census.
I am not denying black voters put Biden on top. I’m saying it doesn’t seem to be their blackness has much to do with it. Sanders did quite well with black voters under 45 in most states.
I’m basing the drastically increased turnout with enthusiasm - led by black voters. That matches what I’m seeing online as well. Though I guess you could read their increased turnout as in they REAAALY hated Sanders, but I don’t think that’s super true.
I wonder how Gov. Whitmer’s chances of being asked to run for VP have been damaged over the last couple of weeks. I heard a lot of talk that she has enforced draconian restrictions on her state, and there have been protests.
By wackadoos. By people carrying rifles to protest restrictions during a global pandemic. By people waving confederate and Trump flags.
Most Michiganders, like most Americans, support the restrictions and don’t want them lifted too quickly. Michiganders have been hit especially hard by this, and I understand that Metro Detroit is really the only place that’s been hit hard, but that’s because those of us living outstate are following the rules and staying home.
Like I said, those raising a big stink about staying home are wackadoos. In some parts of the state, all you have to do is yell “Guns ‘n’ freedom!” and you can attract 1,000 people waving “Don’t Tread on Me” flags. And that’s all this was in Lansing.
If Whitmer’s chances have been hurt by anything it’s the fact that she’s still got a *lot *of work ahead of her as governor in the year ahead. Now’s not the time to be going off on the campaign trail.
I just have a pessimistic view of this election, and am feeling desperate.