To use your analogy:
One person took a test, got a zero and shat on the floor.
The next person took a test and got wrong answer.
Some folks: “Look! They’re just the same!”
The smart allies did get out. I believe Germany and Italy had moved out there military forces by July, and only had to evacuate their embassies, although Germany did have issues with their evacuation flights. Looking a bit more closely, Germany left 300 citizens in Afghanistan and 5000 staff and their families that they would have liked to evacuate.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-left-5000-former-staff-families-behind-afghanistan-network-says-2021-08-27/
But you’ve got a bit of a point. The allies should have been planning for a worst case scenario, and that worst case scenario should have included the possibility that the US leadership would leave them, and the Afghani’s they’d worked with, hanging out to dry.
Possibly that will be part of their planning in the future. But allies having to plan for US unreliability when considering whether to assist the US with foreign interventions will certainly hinder their assistance.
To some extent, yes. It’s unfortunate that’s where we are at, but at the moment I’ll take what I can get. “Wrong within normal parameters” (to paraphrase O’Rourke) beats delusional sociopath.
In politics I grade on a curve. This one has got a guy who scored a generous 3 vs. someone with a 59.
I’m not thrilled with Biden’s performance in this sphere. But I’m okay with him in others. A nasty-ass cold beef liver (I hate beef liver) sandwich beats the shit sandwich we had before.
It’s almost like in contravention of the nonsensical claims that Biden gave no one ‘any warning’, our allies in fact did know we were withdrawing and in fact some took action based on that knowledge.
The best case scenario of a US military withdrawal was that the Afghan National Army would be able to defend the Afghan government against the Taliban. Almost nobody believed that would happen. Well, apparently Biden did, even into July. Reposting my earlier cite.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/562135-biden-defends-afghanistan-withdrawal-says-taliban-takeover-highly
The next best scenario, as you point out, was that the Taliban would win the Afghanistan civil war “around 1+ year later”. Fine. Plan for that scenario. Coordinate those plans with your allies. Realise that achieving that plan might require continuing your military effort, especially by providing air support and logistics, even if the military effort goes on a few more months than you would prefer.
But the US leadership didn’t plan for that scenario. Based on everything that’s been reported over the last few months, they didn’t plan for any scenario. They just hoped that that the Afghan National Army, who they’d abandoned, would hold out long enough for the US to create and execute emergency evacuation plans. The US leadership knew that abandoning Bagram Air Base was a sign that they were abandoning Afghanistan. It should have been apparent at that time that the Taliban would win the Afghanistan civil war, yet as you point out, this wasn’t treated like an emergency. It was only after the Afghan National Army essentially disbanded, and it was obvious that Kabul would fall, that emergency measures kicked in.
Contingency plans aren’t plans made up quickly after something bad has happened. They’re plans made up beforehand when it’s recognised that something bad could happen. Apparently because: “That went against U.S. policy–we were not supposed to be “evacuating” people like it was a fucking emergency the same time we withdrew the military.” those contingency plans weren’t made. Which is a big reason why the Afghanistan withdrawal was such a debacle.
I don’t see any real evidence to the claim “they didn’t plan for any scenario”, in fact knowing what I do about military planning I would say there is almost no chance that is true. I do think it’s entirely possible they didn’t adequately plan for a scenario in which at the same time as they finalized their military withdrawal, the Afghan government went from controlling most cities and provinces to the President fleeing Kabul in about 11 days; and I don’t actually know that you can make a great plan for that situation. Doubly so when the entire weight of the intelligence apparatus is telling the decision makers that such a situation is not going to happen. Note it’s more important that the Generals got the bad intelligence, as much fun as it is to attack Presidents, the President doesn’t know jack shit about military ops, and shouldn’t. The actual withdrawal planning is done by military leaders, but if their intelligence is massively wrong, things aren’t going to go well.
Did Biden provide the US’s European allies with advance notice before, on 14 April 2021, announcing that the US would be withdrawing, effectively abandoning, Afghanistan by 11 September 2021? I remember European leaders being surprised by that announcement, and wishing to discuss it at the next upcoming international conference.
Also, notification of intentions falls below what should be expected of an ally who’s had troops fighting with you in a war. There should have been a coordinated withdrawal plan, and the US allies should have been involved in the creation and implementation of that plan. A surprise political announcement with no accompanying plan to discuss with your allies falls incredibly short of what should have been expected.
[quote=“Martin_Hyde, post:167, topic:950202”]
**at the same time as they finalized their military withdrawal, the Afghan government went from controlling most cities and provinces to the President fleeing Kabul in about 11 days[/quote]
I’m not talking about 11 days, I’m talking about nearly five months - the timeframe from 14 April 2021 to 11 September 2021. And really I’m talking about earlier and later than that. Biden should have had a plan for the Afghanistan withdrawal before he made his 14 April 2021 announcement, and it should have been a plan that was discussed with US allies. And for all the emotional significance of a 11 September withdrawal date, it was neither necessary or smart. The Taliban had a pattern of reduced operations during the Afghanistan winter. The US could have said they wanted to continue the Doha peace talks until the end of the year, and then withdrawn after that with a coordinated plan in place. A plan they had coordinated with their allies. Instead, they acted unilaterally showing that Biden’s promise that “Diplomacy is back” was an empty promise.
For one, the withdrawal that was to be completed by September 11th, was the withdrawal of military forces. There is little evidence that that withdrawal did not get planned, and in fact was mostly complete by the time President Ghani fled Afghanistan. I go back again to the statement that you are assuming we were supposed to be evacuating all of our civilians + all of the Afghans holding SIVs, at the same time. That was not supposed to happen, nor was it intended. That was a consequence of the Afghan civil government collapsing from a position of controlling nearly every urban area and most provinces in early July, to controlling nothing by the time Ashraf Ghani fled on August 15th.
It is a known fact that Biden specifically said we were withdrawing our military in April, it was a public policy speech, and then there is literally a page dated to that time hosted on the Department of Defense’s website that I’ve previously linked. It was reported on in world media at the time. The idea that no one knew we were withdrawing our military within less than six months just isn’t supported by openly known facts that have been in the public sphere of information since April.
Biden said he was going to withdraw, but he also said the Afghan military would continue to receive air support, which implies that at least Bagram would have stayed open.
It’s also possible that peoole assumed he wouldn’t be so stupid as to withdraw everyone and not leave a base at Bagram to condict air operations for the Afghan military as promised. After all, he was told not to completely leave by the G7, NATO, and his own military advisors. He just didn’t listen to any of them.
Biden also promised that he wouldn’t leave until every American and SIV holder was out of the country. That may have given other countries a false sense that they had more time to get their own people out, since no one thought a complete evacuation coild happen by Aigust 31. They were right, but unfortunately for them Biden lied.
If Trump had flouted all the advice given and done something that caused this much damage to America, you’d all be calling for his head.
Finally, let’s say Biden had been right and the Taliban wouldn’t have taken over for a few months. Well, that still means he knew he was giving Afghanistan back to the Taliban, wiping out everything the US and its allies achieved and resetting the clock back to before 9/11. And the way he bungled it gave them billions of dollars of advanced weaponry they didn’t have before. Heckuva job, Biden.
Just how do you think America will fare the next time it needs to build support for something in NATO? Biden has done severe damage to America’s alliances.
I really wish folks would learn the difference between imply and infer.
Yeah, me too. You, for example.
An action implies something. A listener or obaerver infers something.
“Thing done by X implies Y”
“Person watching X infers Y”
I used the term correctly.
No, you didn’t,
‘Biden said the Afghan military would continue to receive air support’ in no way implies that Bagram would stay open.
That’s what you infer it to mean.
Staying would have done much, much more damage to America. With hindsight, it’s hard to imagine this withdrawal going any better. The government collapsed in hours and we still had very few casualties during the withdrawal, successfully executed the biggest airlift in history, and got out almost everyone who wanted to leave and was eligible (i.e. Americans and Afghans who worked closely with us during the war).
Maybe a few things at the margins could have gone better. But we’re out! Out of a dumb war that was weakening America, year after year. Trump said he was going to get us out, but he didn’t. Obama should have gotten us out after bin Laden was killed, but the generals convinced him to stay. Thank God Biden had the experience to know that the generals were full of shit and the balls to defy their colossally stupid recommendations to stay.
This is the sentence you had a problem with:
Biden’s promise IMPLIES something. People who listened to Biden’s promise could INFER something from it.
I could have said something like, “Biden made a promise, which would have caused allies to infer that he would stay longer than he did.” That would also be correct. But since the object of the sentence was the action and not the allies’ reaction, the correct word was IMPLY.
Please, explain how “the Afghan military would continue to receive air support”, which by definition must include,
A: Air support from Bagram
B: Air support from an Afghan air base but not Bagram
C: Air support from an air base not in Afghanistan
D: Air support from carrier based aircraft
implies A to the exclusion of B,C, and D?
Nice story you’re telling, have any actual evidence to support the claim? The only thing I’ve seen is statements that the U.S. would continue to make anti-terrorist air strikes in the country, specifically meaning al-Qaeda and ISIS-K. I’m assuming you have evidence to back up something you say “Biden said.”
What would be stupid would be to do a full military withdrawal and…not fully withdrawal. Bagram is a military base. A full military withdrawal means we don’t have a military presence in the country.
Another cite for this would be good, specifically “every SIV holder.”
This has caused functionally zero damage to America, and was set in motion by Trump. So I’m not sure where that leaves it.
So in your mind it was Joe Biden who was saying “the Taliban won’t take over in a few months”, like the guy with no professional military or intelligence experience, came in and told all the DoD and our national intelligence agencies that was what was happening? Or is it the case he was repeating what all of his intelligence agencies were telling him? Biden wasn’t wrong, his intelligence was. That’s a situation that can happen to any President, and usually does.
I think it will do exactly fine. You have offered, in my opinion, virtually no compelling evidence at all that this would hurt our ability to “build a future NATO coalition.”
I mean this is par for the course @Sam_Stone isn’t making serious statements here, and hasn’t in any of the Afghanistan threads. He literally just keeps repeating that it is the worst thing ever, offers no evidence, makes tons of claims he won’t back up etc. He’s just spewing partisan nonsense, and it shouldn’t be afforded the attention of more serious commentary.
Ask Biden. He’s the one that made the promise. He was also telling allies and the public that the Afghan government would hold, while privately telling the Afghan president that he knew they were in big trouble, but that he should lie about it.
The NATO partners fucked up in the Animal House sense: They trusted Joe Biden.
Cite that he made that promise. Also cite that he was privately telling Ashraf Ghani anything that indicated he knew the government would collapse in a couple months.