according to the BBC, Afganistan asked Bin Laden to leave.
So what’s going to happen now? They’re not exactly handing him over, and Bin Laden is not going to turn himself in, so what other options are there?
Fleeing comes to mind, but where would he go? No country in the world would take him in, and even the suspicion of his prescence would lead to a nation-wide manhunt (probably).
Another option is that Afgans capture him and turn him over (the posters do say dead or alive). This does not sound very likely either, because terrorist or not, Bin Laden still has a very large and loyal following, willing to protect him. And Afganistan has no great love for the US.
I really think we need to look at any statement by the Taliban concerning Osama Bin Laden with a lot of skepticism. All these statements by the Taliban saying Bin Laden is under house arrest, they want to talk to the Americans about handing him over, etc etc . reek of a lot of the BS Iran threw at us for over 400 days during the hostage crisis. Keep telling the Americans what they want to hear, jerk us around, that way we look like the bad guys if we bomb them when they were “trying to help.” I think the Taliban is buying time so they can make arrangements to take cover should we attack.
Bin Laden is a well protected individual with strong ties to the Taliban. He is a member of their inner circle who provided tons of support to help them take over most of the the country. It is also reported some of his daughters may be married to Taliban members. His footings are well entrenched in that country, so all I can say is “I’ll beleive it when I see it!” Even if Taliban troops do try and apprehend him, who knows what kind of chemical and biological weapons he has at his disposal to use on the Taliban?
But let’s pretend the Taliban kicks out Bin Laden, my guess is there are several militant groups in Northern Pakistan who would harbor him. You also cannot rule out the possibility of Bin Laden undergoing plastic surgery and setting up shop somewhere in the Middle East with it taking years before we catch up to him. His network may spread to over 60 countries.
This is a technique that was used by Imad Mughniyeh, who some Mossad sources think is in cahoots with Iraq in the attacks and who some think is much, much more dangerous than Bin Laden.
The point is that no one wants him because any country that would take him is subject to more attacks. ALthough I suppose the US could keep him, why not? Don’t we have Noriega & some other big time guys? Put him in jail & inform his friends that if they do any attacks, we do something to him?
This seems to be a compromise in the hope that the US would accept it. They don’t have to act, it doesn’t violate their approach that they cannot throw him out; but they hope that it sends a “we don’t want him here” message to the west while still permiting him to stay.
Unfortunately for Afghanistan, it didn’t work. We officialy reject it.
God have mercy on the people of Afghanistan; and may the Taliban leaders get exactly what they deserve
Ditto Old Broad – also, the decision by the Taliban takes some pressure off Pakistan where the they are very influential. Less volatility there, and a significant implicit message to all Taliban supporters that Bin Ladin’s overstepped the Islamic Code.
On reflection we might find this ‘compromise’ looks a little better than it does initially.
Whoa, whoa, whoa . . . aren’t we jumping the gun here? Please correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding that as of right now (~12:15 EDT), the Islamic clerics have recommended that ObL be asked to leave, that Mullah Omar is considering that recommendation, and that he has the final decision. In other words, Afghanistan has not made any declarations concerning ObL’s staying or not staying in the country. So far it’s only a recommendation.
Right? If not, I’d love to see a cite confirming that they’ve actually shown ObL the door.
Several of the former Soviet “'Stans,” Iraq, Yemen, The Sudan, Somalia, Libya, and perhaps even Bosnia might harbor him on a secret and semi-official basis–he appears to have worked with all of those nations in some capacity before, and might be owed a favor.
If he goes alone, without his entourage, he could be anywhere. If he is hard pressed, he will likely try to hole up in war-torn or third-world nations with significant Muslim populations which do not have the resources to track his movements and may even welcome his presence. That leaves great swaths of southern Asia, and Saharan and even sub-Saharan Africa. Uganda or Chad may be candidates. Bangladesh, whatever Burma is calling itself today, and Algeria spring to mind as well.
It’s worth pointing out that it is likely that the Taliban would probably have great difficulty locating OBL in Afghansistan, even if they honestly wanted to find him. I see little reason for him to go anywhere since he is already in one of the best possible hiding places, one which could spark a global nuclear war if a truly concerted effort is made to find and capture him.
We’ve been looking for this guy for ten years. Only time will tell if this latest act, whether it was conceived by him or not, will prove to be the moral ball-and-chain to the relative freedom of movement he has enjoyed up to now.
If the US took him, more terrorist attack would follow on the US demanding his release. And I don’t think we would stoop to the level of “attack us and we hurt OBL”. Plus, when Dan Rather was on Letterman he said that OBL has told his bodyguards to kill him before he gets taken by the Americans. He didn’t cite this though.
Sofa, please explain how conflict in Afghanistan could lead to global nuclear war. Russia, China, and the former Soviet republics would be delighted to see the Taliban and OBL go, even if they won’t/can’t do anything to help take them out. Even Pakistan has reconsidered its pro-Taliban postion. Who, then, is left to start a global nuclear war with? I doubt that the Taliban has a bunch of ICBMs hidden in the rubble of Kabul.
The situation is dire enough without invoking the specter of global nuclear war.
The Taliban give up bin Laden (or he goes voluntarily) to China. China then refuses to give him up, and holds a trial where he’s found innocent. Would we invade China to get him? This could cause a world war.
But why on earth would China take him? China has its own problems with Muslim extremist terrorism on its western borders. And, of course, China exports a huge quantity of its goods to the West. You wouldn’t to threaten an invasion, just economic sanctions, to make the cost of harboring him more than China would be willing to pay.
China might take him as an enormous ace in the hole against us. Just imagine what concessions we might offer to them if they agreed to hand him over. Hardliners in China might want to keep him just to force our hand against them, just as they fought internally to prolong the downed spyplane incident a while back.
I’m not saying it would necessarily make a lot of sense for them to do it, but then their behaviour during the spyplane incident didn’t always make sense, either (mostly due to rival factions within China).
Geographically, Afghanistan borders on no less than three nuclear powers: China, Pakistan, and the Russian Confederation. Furthermore, a fourth, the United States, is screaming for blood. Pakistan and China also border on a fifth nuclear power, India, and all three have a strained relationship with one another. NATO has announced support for the United States, which includes the U.K. and France. The eighth known nuclear power is of course Israel.