Bin Laden audiotape: proof he's alive?

Great Debates
1

The latest news from CNN: “An audiotaped statement attributed to Osama bin Laden praises recent terror attacks in Yemen, Kuwait, Bali and Moscow as a response ‘to how the Muslims have been treated.’”

Is it really Osama bin Laden? The CNN story says, “People who have listened to hours of bin Laden tapes said the voice on the latest tape sounds like that of the al Qaeda leader.”

I’m having trouble believing it’s Bin Laden. Today, it’s just as easy to make a videotape as it is to make an audiotape. And a videotape would be a lot more credible than an audiotape, as far as questions of its authenticity. And a videotape would be a great way for al Qaeda to taunt those who hoped that Bin Laden had been buried in some bombed-out cave last year.

And in fact, Bin Laden did make two videotapes after Sept. 11 but before the last offensive against him. Why did he stop making videotapes? Sounds suspicious to me.

2

The Feds are no doubt running the recording through a computer to see if it is him. Whether or not they’ll announce their findings truthfully or at all, is debatable. (Also, the percentage of folks who’ll believe the Feds information is debatable.)

There are two possibilites:
1.) The tape’s a fake.

2.) The tape’s legit, and Bin Laden’s using the audio format instead of video because he doesn’t want to give the US any clues as to his current location, or he’s in bad shape, and doesn’t want his followers to see that he’s been injured/sick.

3

Of course he is alive! Just because he hasn’t made a video tape lately doesn’t mean he’s dead. I haven’t made a video tape lately, am i dead?
Why make a video tape and give away your whereabouts in rural pakistan when you can just do an audio tape?

4

I really can’t see any argument against making a video tape on the grounds that it would give away his location; it would be trivial to make the tape in front of a non-descript white background. And imagine how much more powerful a statement it would be if a (relatively) healthy bin Laden was on screen to deliver it.

My money is on it either not being bin Laden, or he’s alive but in bad shape.

5

Keep in mind that U.S. forces are chasing Al Qaeda around the Afghanistan/Pakistan border pretty good. If bin Laden is there, he’s on the run. He may not have a video recorder. It’s a long way to Best Buy.

6

Good point.

7

That’s assuming he’s somewhere that it’s practical to put up a white background. If he’s having to stay in tents, that might not be possible due to weather conditions. Wind, rain or other weather could be inferred simply from the motion of the background, at which point, the military types start looking to see what areas in the region have experienced such weather in the time since the latest incident mentioned on the tape. Any spots that fit the bill are promptly bombed/invaded/spied upon with everything the US military can throw at it. No doubt, they’ll even spread their efforts out in a radius to encompass all the distance he could have concievably travelled in the time since the tape was made.

As it is, the experts are going to be going over that tape, not only to find out if it is Binny, but for any background noises they might hear that could give them information as to the speaker’s whereabouts.

8

Being dead never stopped rappers from coming out with more tapes…

9

Here’s another possibility: Assuming that the attacks we’re talking about have been in the planning stages for a long time (probably true), then Bin Laden could have made the tapes a year ago and had them ready to go on the day when the attacks occured so that they could be played if he were out of communication or dead. Maybe al-Qaida’s been burning the tapes he made praising terrorist acts that were thwarted or otherwise failed.

So they could be him, and they could be referencing recent events, and Bin Laden could still have died a year ago at Tora Bora.

10

If he’s inside a tent, it’s really not that hard to hang a sheet or blanket and have bin Laden sit in front of it, with a tight closeup of him talking.

I agree with what others said, that he’s either dead and this audiotape is a forgery, or he’s alive but in bad physical shape, and doesn’t want his followers to see that.

11

The third possibility that’s been tossed around- and the one I lean towards beleiving, though only slightly- is that the tapes are not necessarily propaganda, directed at you and me, or muslims in general.

Rather, they’re coded orders.

Using strings of some sort of “code word” or phrase, ol’ Rubbish Bin extorts the scattered followers using entirely untraceable means. There’s no phone calls, no letters, packages or mail, no dead-drops, no brush-passes.

OBL sends a tape, Al-Jazeera broadcasts it, CNN sends it out across the planet, and somebody with a Dish or even just watching TV in a bar somehwre hears it.

The pros of this theory is the wording- they say some of what he says borders on the flowery or obscure even for him, or that some sentences just don’t make sense. “The big cheese gets his at high tide tonight” and all that.

The con is that even if every word were a prearranged code, he can’t be passing out a whole lot of data. At best, it’d be “go attack the Australians” or “see if you can get some help”.

And for the conspiracists, well, since you don’t hear too much about this theory… well, that fits, doesn’t it? We have some or even most of the codewording from the Gitmo prisoners, and we know what he’s been saying. But we don’t tell anyone we knoe what he’s been saying, just as we didn’t tell anyone we could read Enigma ciphers in WW2.

'Course, that’s pure, unadulterated speculation, but it’s kind of comforting to think that maybe the government actually might know more than I do. :smiley:

12

Is it possible to store OBL’s words digitally, and construct new sentences from the store word? That would make it possible to convince his followers that:
-he is still alive
-he is still in command.
For al we know, OBL might be worm food somewhere in Tora Bora. His followers may well be just pasting together prerecorded words of his.
I also think that were he alive, he would be taunting the US to go get him…we haven’t seen that.
I sure hope the US continues to kill his rotten sons and wives as well, they are evry bit as evil as him.

13

the one wild card that throws off that theory is the attack in Mosscow. Despite the attempts by Putin to link the Chechian rebels with Bin Ladden there is no connection so how can he plan that a year in advance.

I hate to believe this but he may be alive and may have just given the signal to go ahead and begin attacks in the countries he named.

14

Other things I have heard floated by the media[ul]1. He sounds much healthier that he has in recent past.
2. He may have had plastic surgery to alter his appearance
3. US powers that be are analyzing the tape for “edits”[/ul]I discount #2 above because 1) he has the most value for his cause (such as it is) by being himself and 2) his probable hiding location(s) can’t be all that conducive to that sort of medical talent and equipment.

Until this tape got strong probable reviews from the US gov. I tended to think the old boy had died one way or another since, IMO, the best way to rally his remaining (and converted) supporters is to show the world that the west can’t catch him. A brief video appearance holding a newspaper (or other dated item) and rallying the troops to action would do wonders for his cause. Properly set up, (and I have a hard time thinking it would be difficult) such a tape would have almost zero chance of giving away any useable information.

15

I dunno - if he’s changed his appearance then it would certainly be better for him to just send audio. There is a $25m reward on him these days.
The electronic analysis will be far more convincing to me than “experts” saying it sounds just like him.

16

[ul]:rolleyes: [sup]Sure, the whole world is anxiously waiting for the answer to this question.[/sup][/ul]

17

According to CNN it’s him.

18

Is it is or is it ain’t? Follow the link on CNN and it says this:

19

Plastic surgery?

On a man who’s an extremist in a religion that frowns on shaving ones beard as an “Affront to God”?

Mmmmmn-nah.

20

Interesting comments there, I wonder if the same analysis was applied to the “911 smoking gun” video.