Even skilled counters will lose. You still need luck. You can cut it down but not eliminate it. That is why the MIT people required a big stash to play.
A casino in Windsor Canada took a counter to court. They lost when they explained even counting ,he could lose. The judge says it is just gambling. But Casinos have the right to refuse them the right to play.
It’s been about a year since I was in Vegas, is this a new policy because I’ve never seen it happen.
They have a few “no mid-shoe entry” tables in AC. At the Borgata, they’re only at the high minimum tables.
In order for Blackjack to remain the game it is today, card counting MUST be “illegal”. Current Blackjack rules, when combined with card counting, is a net negative to the casino. Casino’s are in business to make money, not lose money, they can’t have games that lose money on average. They can lose money on individual players, and individual bets, but not on average.
If card counting is made “legal” then card counting will become the standard method of play, just like the basic strategy card is today. Card counting is trivially easy to do, if you don’t have to hide the fact you’re doing it. One guy at the table counts outloud for everyone, everyone knows the count, and they all adjust their play according to the “basic strategy + counting” card. Everyone plays that way, the whole table (and every table in the joint) is a money loser.
A game that statistically loses money is a game that won’t be offered anymore.
Court rulings have confirmed that card counting is legal; they’ve also confirmed that casinos do not have to deal to players they don’t want to deal to. So they can’t put a counter in jail; but they can keep him from playing.
This has been the legal status quo for over 30 years, and yet casinos keep making money hand over fist, and blackjack remains the single most popular table game.
I don’t think casinos are losing sleep over counters, because (a) it is not trivially simple – it’s quite difficult to do, especially when it’s done secretively (see above legal point); and (b) most players don’t do it, can’t do it, and lose money. So the game may “statistically lose money” (perfect counting changes the house advantage of < 1% to a disadvantage of < 1%, btw) to an insignificant percentage of players. Big deal. It’s not worth killing the golden goose over.
And this is not even taking into account the casino counter-measures: 6 deck shoes with shuffle half-way through; no mid-shoe entry; perpetual shuffle machines.
This is because the casinos have made it “illegal” (in quotes because they can only kick you out, not arrest you). I believe that counting is very difficult to do secretly, but would be easy to do if it were openly allowed. Being able to call out the numbers as each card is shown ensures that everyone knows the count, and makes it easy for all players to help keep the count current, and provide tips of when to change play. Having to count secretly means you can’t be obvious about counting, you can’t vary your bets/play as much as you would otherwise want, and you’re always one tap on the shoulder away from being booted.
Unfortunately, countermeasures are the sort of thing that casinos have to bring out to keep the table profitable, but affect the enjoyment and playability of the game.
Actually, a 6-deck shoe game is *more *enjoyable and playable, for the non-counter. You spend more time playing and less time waiting for shuffles. And shoe games tend to have more liberal rules (double-down after split, eg) than single or double-deck games. For the counter, though, they suck.
Personally, I wish all games were hand-dealt single-deck with DDAS, surrender, and dealer must stand on soft 17. I wish I had a pony, too.
And everyone gets a BJ!
What?
Card counters tend to overlook this minor point in favor of whining about how they’re discriminated against because of their “greater skill.”
If casinos were prevented from kicking out counters their only recourse would be to have nothing but games with rules that are so incredibly bad, it would be impossible to count. Thereby completely eliminating their entire line of work.
I feel the need to be a killjoy. The first thing you need to realize is that the “MIT Blackjack Team” in the book “Bringing down the house” and in the movie “21” is entirely fictional. There was never an official MIT Blackjack Team - there were multiple teams that operated between 1975-1995, some of which overlapped.
The book, and the subsequent movie, are fictionalizations based on (but not duplications of) the most interesting moments of every team. So, yes, there was a blackjack team from MIT that made a lot of money in the same way as some World War II veteran saved Private Ryan or some poker player entered an online tournament for $40 and won $2.5 million.
If all you know about counting cards comes from the book or the movie, you’re going to be misinformed.
Short answer: Yes.
You need to understand that the effects are really, really small. If you play proper basic strategy, without counting, you’ll expect to win about 43%, lose 50%, and tie 7%. With counting, it’ll look something like win 44%, lose 49%, tie 7%. You’ll, statistically, need to play for several thousand hours before you can actually have a winning percentage - your advantage over the casino will come from doubling and splitting your winning bets (and surrendering your losing bets).
What you’re talking about here is changing the odds from the casino winning 5 cents for every $10 you bet to you winning 5 cents for every $10 you bet. Unless you’ve got a few million to risk (which various teams did have, don’t get me wrong) you’re not going to make a lot of money.
Don’t get me wrong - it’s fucking fun. 
But be realistic about your expectations, and you’ll get the most out of the experience. If you’re interested in the subject, I’d recommend these three books. There’s a lot of crap books on the bookshelf, so beware.
Professional Blackjack, by Stanford Wong
The Big Book of Blackjack, by Arnold Snyder
Blackbelt in Blackjack, by Arnod Snyder
My rule of thumb is this: take your hourly wage at work. Divide it by 10. That’s realistically what you stand to make at blackjack, based on a prediction of how much disposable income you’ll have as a bankroll and how smart you are.
This is an easy way to remember basic strategy, not an assumption mired in reality. It’s like “righty tighty, lefty loosey” - it works 90% of the time, and it’s convinient to remember, but there’s nothing about “right” that makes it “tight”.
It’s a correlation, not a cause.
This is exactly what happened in Atlantic City. 8-deck shoes, no mid-shoe entry, 50% penetration … ugh.
Las Vegas is doing it too for all the single and double deck games - the rule “blackjack pays 6:5” essentially means “fuck off, you’ll be counting for hours before you have any chance at advantage play”.
To go way back to the OP, yes that is exactlly how I play as well. I look at the cards that have been delt to the table for that hand and make my determination on how to play. Everyone has a 10 or higher for their second card at the table? Good guess is that some lower cards are going to be coming up. Sure it’s not all mathmatical, but I win more often than I loose, and always walk away with money in my pocket. It’s called gambling for a reason.
I also use those cards to decide if I should split or not. I have a pair of 10s bunch of low cards showing on the table, and the dealer has a 6 or less showing? You betcha I’ll split. Chances are I’ll get a couple of high cards. It also means that if there are a few low value cards still kicking around I’ll get them before they get to the dealer. It also matter how everyone else is going to play. Most people will sit there quite happily and not hit if the dealer is showing a 6 or less…so that means they can’t screw you up. shrug…as all the other posters will undoubtedly point out, this is about the most unmathmatical method of play…but hey, it works for me.
There are quite simple methods of card counting. One easy way is to keep a single total in your head by adding or subtracting 1 for each card you see. You add one for cards 10-A, and subtract one for cards 1-9. The total that you have in your head gives you an idea of the relative strength of the cards. If you have a positive number in your head, the deck will tend to have lower cards, so you can “hit” a 15 or 16 more safely. If the number in your head is negative, it’s not as safe to hit in the same circumstances.
From what I understand, Casinos catch card counters by watching the variations in their betting. If a person suddenly starts increasing their bet to take advantage of a “hot” deck (which has more 10-A than a new deck) the casino will ask them to leave. I haven’t heard of a casino busting someone for card counting who never increased their bet like this, though.
Never, ever, under any circumstances, should you split 10’s. You are likely to turn a winning hand into two losing hands.
I believe it is possible that a shoe (or deck) could get to the point that it’s so rich in tens (or aces) that it’s statistically advantageous to split tens instead of staying on the 20. You would have to be card-counting utilizing a good, accurate system to know this, of course.
Probably the more accurate statement is that it is ALMOST never a good idea to split tens. You’ll turn your near-unbeatable 20, into an 18 and a 17. And it’s pointing a big arrow at your head, saying either “CARD COUNTER” or “IDIOT!!!”.
Playing in Melbourne 10 years ago there was a woman at my table that was constantly complaining about my playing. “If you hadn’t taken that hit the dealer would have busted!” “You are playing so stupid!”, other stuff like that. When she said this, I was up $150, so I didn’t really care, but she was annoying. So I looked at her, smiled, and split 10s. Was dealt a 10 and Ace. I though her head was going to explode. 
She finally shut up and left and I ended the night up $300.
I just wanted to point out the bolded part. In a 6 deck shoe there are 6 (decks) X 4 (suits) X 5 (numbers), or 120, 2-6s. So 12 of 120 cards that may help you are gone. And yes, I use these cards to influence (but not totally dictate) how I play a hand. No hard and fast rules, tho, more of a gut feeling that a 10 is “due” (or vice versa if a lot of face cards are showing).
Like Atrael, I do OK. I’ve never split tens tho, but did double down once on A-9 (dealer was showing a 6 and I was on a roll). The Dealer chastised me somewhat, but then he paid me
Anybody know how to run the numbers on this one?
I was recently playing in Vegas and a guy sat down next to me who had all sorts of “tricks” that he took great pleasure in sharing with the rest of us. He was surrendering like half his hands so I didn’t take him too seriously but he did one thing that I thought was very interesting. He split tens, got an Ace on one of them, and doubled down on that hand. The dealer balked, but the pit boss confirmed that it was a good strategy. He said the casino doesn’t pay 3:2 on a blackjack because they’re nice guys, they do it to get you out of the game so you can’t double down on A-10. According to him, you would end up better off than 3:2 if they allowed you to double on a blackjack hand. Can anybody do the math on this and confirm it?
I ran a very quick simulation of the case where the dealer has a 6 and the player blackjack. Doubling down, I get:
Player wins: 63%
House wins: 30%
Push: 6.5%
So the expected outcome is: .63 * 2Bet - .30 * 2Bet = +.66 Bet.
As opposed to blackjack, which is a +1.5 Bet. So no, don’t double blackjack.