Blackjack strategy table... odds in my favor?

Factual Questions
1

Late last night I was scouring the internet and came across a strategy table for blackjack… in which the author claims ‘throws the odds slightly in your favor’. I saved it to my hard drive, but this aftrnoon I can not find the url… so I uploaded it to my site.

http://www.angelfire.com/me/gold1000/blackjack.htm

If this strategy was put in to effect, would I have the edge over the casino?

Also… does someone have a software version of blackjack they would like to kindly give me so I can test this guide?

2

I’m no expert, but I don’t think just that table will give you an advantage over the house. It will improve your odds, but the house will still have a slight edge. There are other methods which are more involved that will indeed give you a slight edge over the house. All of them I know of will involve some form of counting the cards. That’s not to say that you have to count each individual card. Some of the methods I am slightly familiar with, involve assigning a +1 to cards over a certain value (say, 7), and a –1 to cards under that value. Whenever you’re “count” is +4 or greater, you should increase the value of your bets, as the dealer now has a greater chance of busting. The table you have is a static table. Most of the methods I’m (again, somewhat) familiar with involve a dynamic table that changes with your “count”.

So, long story short… I don’t think that your table will give you an advantage over the house, but it is possible with other methods.

Just so we’re clear… I have made-up all of the numbers above, because, like I wrote, I am not really that familiar with any specific method. If you are interested, there are several books you can get that will go into great detail on how to do it, and some sites on the internet that will give you the gist of how it’s done.

3

“Beating the house” in Blackjack is based on three elements.

1 - The actions of the dealer are fixed. Therefore it’s relatively predictable.

2 - If you play with the best possible strategy, the odds are only slightly in favor of the casino.

3 - At certain times, due to the random dealing of the cards, the cards that remain in the deck will increase or decrease the player’s odds slightly for some hands.

Card counting schemes combine these factors. The idea is to memorize the best possible plays in every situation (which is probably what your strategy table gave you) while simultaneously keeping track of what cards have been played. Then if the situation arises where the remaining cards in the deck are in your favor, you increase your bets. If the remaining cards are against you, you decrease your bets. Mathematically, by following this plan the odds of winning will be slightly in your favor and you will increase your money over the long run.

In the real world, other factors usually intervene. A major one is that you have to simultaneously analyze the play, play the best moves, memorize all the cards as they’re played, and deal with all the other distractions of the casino for hours on end in order to make a profit. Another factor is that by relatively minor actions, the casino, the dealer, or other players can disrupt your strategy. A final consideration is whether you really want to discover to what degree organized crime still has a hold in casino operations.

4

That table shows Blackjack 101. Basically, assume the dealer’s hidden card is a 10. If you are not a seasoned player, then yes, following that guide should put the odds in your favor a bit to win more than if you just blindly hit and stand, etc. That guide also represents some of the table ‘etiquette’ of the game, most regular table players would expect you to know them, i.e stand when the dealer shows a low card and there are a lot of low cards on the table. Of course, it is all chance, but don’t try telling the other players that. I suggest finding a minimum wage table and testing the waters, most players and even dealers are willing to help a newbie if he seems willing and able to learn. Good Luck!!

5

If you play PERFECT basic strategy, you’ll typically be up against a house edge of between -.7% and +.1%. The latter for a single-deck game with all the ‘good’ rules. But these games are very rare. Reno single deck rules typically give you a disadvantage of around -.2% Shoe games will be anywhere between -.2% and -.70%.

These are the best gambles in the house, but the house still does have an edge over you.

Note I emphasized PERFECT basic strategy. In my experience, a lot of people think they play perfectly when in fact they make a lot of mistakes. The average casino blackjack player is playing with about a 2% disadvantage, due to playing errors.

If you learn to count cards, you can gain an advantage over the house of as much as 1.5-2%. The kicker here is that you won’t be able to do it for much money or you’ll be kicked out of the casino. If you want to bet minimums of $5 spreading to $50 or so, most casinos will look the other way, and you might be able to make $10/hr or so.

6

I’ll add that the most important factor, if you’re not counting (i’ve tried it a few times, but it distracts too much from the enjoyment of the game) is the number of decks. Try to find a single-deck or double-deck game. Second most important factor is the rules. try to find a game that allows doubling on any hand (rather than just 10 or 11, and if possible the surrender option (allows you to opt out of the game while only losing half your bet). Also look for being able to double after a split.

In Reno, Cal-Neva generally has single deck and the best rules. Fitzgerald’s also has single-deck games and somewhat less liberal rules. Big places like the Silver Legacy and Harrah’s usually use a 6-8 deck shoe with shitty rules. When I go to reno, I generally stay at the silver legacy, but play at the dives :slight_smile:

7

Having dealt blackjack, I really don’t think the strategy cards do that much good. I seemed to clean out the people who used them just as quickly as the people who didn’t.

A good rule of thumb is to always assume the dealer’s hold card is a ten, then weigh the likelyhood of the next card breaking your hand as opposed to the dealer’s. If your hand is higher than the dealer’s card plus ten, stay. If lower, hit. If it’s a pair of cards that are each higher than the dealer’s card, and the total is twelve or better, split.

Always double down on eleven, always split eights and aces, never split tens.Always stand on hard seventeen or better.

Anything else, go with your gut.

Stupidest thing I ever saw a player do-

He got his first two cards, looked at them, took a hit. I gave him a seven. He hit again and broke. He threw in his first two cards. They were a ten and a four.

It was the first and last time I ever saw a player hit a hard twenty-one.

8

Agisofia… what I want to know is… why does the house have a slight advantage over the player? Doesn’t the house have just the same chances of winning as the player? Where and how does the house gain a 2.76% (or thereabouts) advantage?

9

MadHatter: Dealer plays last and has already won against players who have busted.

10

I am a card counter, but I don’t play one on TV. A few points.

  1. In the interests of full disclosure, I am not a professional card counter. I usually head to a casino with a $500 stake, and usually end up about $200 ahead (which I then lose at the craps table). I have had nights where I’ve tripled my stake and more, and nights where I’ve lost my entire stake. Over 3 years of playing while counting, I’m up about $2000, which, given the amounts of my various stakes, is maybe a 4-5% profit. So, I’m not about to quit my day job.
  2. The table linked above is a pretty standard. I disagree slightly with some of its recommendations for splits, but otherwise I follow it.
  3. As noted above, whether playing in accordance with the table alone gives you an advantage over the house depends on the house rules. For example, I note that the table assumes surrender is not available. ALWAYS play at a casino they offers surrender, if possible.
  4. Card counting primarily affects your bet. If the deck is positive, you would bet more. However, card counting affects your play as well. For example, if the deck is positive, you should stand with a twelve against a dealer’s 3 face card.
  5. One thing not discussed on the table is insurance (when a dealer has an ace showing, you can “insure” against the dealer having blackjack). People generally totally misunderstand insurance. Whether you bet insurance should have NOTHING TO DO WITH YOUR HAND! Instead, it is an independent bet on whether the dealer has a face card underneath. You should only consider making this bet if you have been counting the cards, and should only make the bet if the deck is positive (the extent of which depends on your counting system).

Sua

11

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by MadHatter *
**

jcgmoi is more than half right, the dealer has already won against the players who busted, even if the dealer busts. Also, the dealer has fewer options than the player, most houses must hit soft seventeen, also, if the dealer has blackjack, everybody who doesn’t have blackjack loses automtically, there’s no option to try to hit for a push.
But that’s still only part of the story, I really don’t know all of how the house keeps it’s advantage. Frankly, I never gave a damn, because I’m a craps dealer, and I hated dealing blackjack.

12

Almost every dealer I’ve talked to about BJ strategy and card counting believe they don’t work. I believe the reasons are twofold. First, people actually using a strategy card are showing their inexperience by having to rely on a “cheat sheet”. They are going to make mistakes. Second, dealers don’t notice good card counters are counting. Good counters learn to hide counting - not because it is illegal, but because it attracts the pit boss’ attention, and then you have problems.
One time in AC, my former roommate (also a counter) and myself were in the perfect counting situation. We were the only players at the table, so we could check the count against each other, slow the play down to make counting easier, and (if we were lucky) have longer runs where the deck was positive.
While we were sitting there, a man came up behind and stood watching the game. The pit boss came over, watching carefully. About the 8th hand in the shoe, the man put down a $500 bet. Immediately, the pit boss told the dealer to reshuffle and cut the new shoe so only half the cards would be played. Turns out the guy was a counter who had cleaned out another casino the night before. Even if the dealer wasn’t concerned, the pit boss was. It really screwed my roomie and myself, as playing with only half a shoe really lessens the effectiveness of counting.
The irony was that the card counter had screwed up somehow – the deck was negative when he put down the big bet.

Sua

13

Then perhaps you can explain to me why most of the time the table suggests that you ‘hit’ on 16? If you hit on 16, you have an 8 in 13 chance of busting, and only a 5 in 13 chance of not busting. Why then does it tell you to hit?

I put the table in to action on a software version of blackjack… and I got thrashed.

So why on earth does it suggest you hit when you are on 16 ?

14

MadHatter, my young pupil, you show great potential. You have stricken immediately at the heart of what seperates good and bad blackjack players.
First of all, the table does not suggest that you hit on 16 most of the time. Instead, it suggests that hit on 16 when the dealer likely has a winning hand. When you look at it this way, hitting on 16 makes sense.
If a dealer has a 7 showing, he has a 5/13 chance of already having 17 or above. With an 8, it’s 6/13, etc. (The shorthand for this is that you should always assume the dealer has a face card down.) And these odds do not account for the possibility that, while he doesn’t have an immediate winning hand, he may draw for one.
You on the other hand can only win with a 16 if the dealer busts. So yes, the odds are that you will bust if you hit on a 16. However, the odds of you busting are less than the odds of the dealer busting. So, ya gotta hit.

To demonstrate this, play another round on your computer. The odds are that you will lose your stake quicker if you stay on the 16’s.
Sua

15

Card counting is unquestionably a way of throwing a slight advantage to the dealer. It’s also unquestionably a way of attracting unfavorable attention to the player. While really good card counters are difficult to catch, there is one things that ALL of them must do. In order to reap the benefit of counting cards, you MUST vary the size of your bets according to the condition of the deck, and that’s what gets the house’s attention. I am not a card counter, but on different occasions I have gotten considerable attention from the floorman (you will almost never see an actual pit boss, by the way) because I was varying the size of my bets according to how I was doing. If you play a contant amount on each hand, whether it’s $2 or $20,000, nobody’s going to bother you a bit.

I can’t say with certainty that card counting is illegal, but I can say if the house suspects you’re doing it they can bar you in a heartbeat.

16

Apologizing in advance for the hijack, as I ask the questions that the ignorant like myself tend to ask:

So, is the floorman the guy in the suit standing amidst the tables, that many people refer to as the pit boss? If so, who’s the pit boss, and what does he do?

[/hijack] :slight_smile:

17

Card counting is not illegal, but casinos can bar you from playing if they suspect that you’re counting.

The exception, IIRC, is Atlantic City, where they are not allowed to boot you just for counting cards. Instead, they take “countermeasures” to cut into the counter’s advantage. The most commonly employed countermeasure is “shuffling up”, or dealing fewer cards from the deck. (Some will have either the dealer or pit boss count the cards, and shuffle them as soon as the count goes positive.)

Counter camouflage is a subject unto itself, but the main thing is not to play at any one place for very long. Your big joints usually won’t even bother booting small-time counters–you could probably spread $5-$50 at the Bellagio or the Mirage all day long without the least bit of heat. The Barbary Coast, on the other hand, is well-known for booting first and asking questions later.

BTW, there’s a list of BJ conditions at most of the casinos in the US at this site. There’s also a BJ Strategy Engine, where you can input the rules for any game and get the correct basic strategy.

Dr. J

18

Card counting is not and has never been illegal. Neither is it unethical.

Casinos have managed to put a stigma on card counters through tremendous PR effort. But if you want to talk unethical, let’s talk about a casino that gives free drinks to gamblers in order to get them drunk and make them lose their judgement, yet tries to prosecute people who are simpply using their brains to play a game to the best of their ability. It’s sickening.

19

I hope I didn’t give the impression that I was stating card counting to be illegal. As I said, I don’t know if it is or isn’t. I just know that casinos don’t like it, and I know that in Las Vegas (I can’t speak for AC), if they think you’re doing it you’re going to get tossed. It’s happened to me (at the LV Hilton) even though I wasn’t counting cards. I was just varying my bets, getting lucky, and winning nearly all the larger hands.

To answer the hijack, the pit boss is the person in charge of an entire “pit”. A pit is, for example, an area full of blackjack or craps tables. The floorman work for the pit boss. If a pit boss ever actually identifies himself (or herself) to you, it almost certainly means that you’re either a) a big-time gambler, and the casino personnel are introducing themselves to you as a matter of courtesy, or b) about to get tossed.

Also, to respond to a couple of comments from earlier posts, the mob is all but out of today’s Las Vegas, at least in the major casinos. The feds have done an excellent job of chasing them out over the years. The mob’s control of casinos was all about skimming, and tighter gaming controls have made that next to impossible. So, if you get caught cheating at, say, the Mirage, you’re not going to get your legs broken. You ARE, however, going to be arrested, the casino WILL press charges, and if you’re found guilty you WILL spend some time in jail. For obvious reasons, casinos take cheating very seriously.

As yet another aside, the casinos don’t cheat, either (although they may try to throw a bettor on a hot streak off his stride). Casino’s don’t cheat because they don’t have any need to do so. As stated in other posts, they have a built-in edge, so in a fair game they are always, in the long run, going to win. It’s quite simple, really.

Is serving free drinks to bettors unethical? That’s an interesting discussion, as I’ve yet to see a casino make a bettor drink. There’s no question, though, that if you’re drunk you’re much less likely to win money (I know this from bitter personal experience). It’s not that you forget how to play and start making boneheaded moves, it’s that your money management goes out the window, and money management is at least as important to winning at the tables as is proper strategy. Ahh, the stories I could tell…

20

No, serving drinks is not unethical (although there is a pending lawsuit about this), but neither is counting cards. The casinos want it both ways. They make the claim that blackjack is a game of skill to entice the gamblers. Then they do everything in their power to eliminate the skill factor, and actually kick you out if you happen to demonstrate that you actually HAVE skill.

In Atlantic City it is illegal to bar people for counting cards.

As an ex-professional gambler, I prefer the Vegas way. If you take away the casino’s right to bar you, they’ll compensate by making the games worse, as they’ve done in Atlantic City (8 decks, bad rules, etc). What I object to is the characterization of card counters as criminals. I didn’t like being stigmatized that way when I was counting.

This is a hot button for me right now because there was recently a TLC special on ‘cheaters’ in Las Vegas, and they used card counters as a prime example. Card counting is not, and has never been cheating.