One thing I will say is that parity among national teams worldwide has tightened. Obviously the top favorites remain a small handful of nations from Europe and South America, but I’m impressed with how well many squads from the more denigrated regions and nations have held their own against the big powers in recent years.
Anyway, I think there is no overwhelmingly obvious single favorite because so many international teams are very good, including some that have gotten a lot better only recently, relatively speaking. Heck, people forget that Spain was mediocre, or even dire, for a long time, and have only won the World Cup the one time in 2010; their previous best finish being 4th in 1950.
In a nutshell: more of the usual best teams are in form at the same time, and more of the developing teams have gotten rather good, than in most past years. I expect a very exciting competition. However, the balance among the groups is dreadfully poor. There could be some strange outcomes.
But we can count most of the usual powers doing well and probably one of them winning it all, from among Germany, Brazil, Argentina, Italy, etc. Among the traditional powers, I don’t see England, Netherlands, or France doing especially well this year, but of course you never know what will happen once we get to single elimination games. Any of them could surprise me.
We can also probably count on at least one dark horse (such as South Korea and Turkey in 2002, when they battled it out for third place) getting much further than anyone is likely to have predicted. I’d pick Nigeria a likely choice for that this year, or Team USA is we can manage to survive the group, no small task.
We can also usually count on one of the traditionally stronger teams to have a horrible World Cup and crash out in the group stage, like France in 2010 (and 2002). I doubt France will struggle quite that badly this year, though. My choices for most likely to be in this category are Portugal or Uruguay. England hasn’t filled me with enormous confidence, but I always cheer for them and hope for the best. I only say Portugal because I’m being very hopeful (“hope is good stuff”) that the USA can get past them. Most people will have Portugal advancing.
Group A. Brazil is the clear favorite to move forward. Among the others (Mexico, Cameroon, Croatia), it’s a tough call. If Mexico have their act together (unlike in qualifying), I would expect them to have a chance to move forward as well, but that’s a big if. Otherwise Cameroon, if Samuel Eto’o is in form. Croatia have Mario Mandžukić but he won’t be enough. I’m going with Brazil and Cameroon to advance.
Group B. Spain and Netherlands are the clear obvious choices to move forward. Chile might threaten, but only if the Netherlands are one of possible choices for “usually good team that stinks this year,” but my guess is they will be better than they were in Euro 2012, when they were in the “Group of death,” seeing as they were dominant in qualifying. Australia will be fortunate to get through with a record better than 0-3. Spain is weaker than 2010, but not so weak they won’t go pretty far. Probably a boring group.
Group C. Columbia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan. I think Ivory Coast might be a good choice for the dark horse that gets further than expected, and most likely to advance. Who knows among the others? Japan are a disciplined side and better than most people think, but Columbia have talented players, and are highly ranked by FIFA (too highly). However, they haven’t qualified since 1998 and haven’t gotten out of the group stage since 1990. The experience just isn’t there. Greece could advance, but have the experience problem, despite a decent showing in Euro 2012. These matches could be very exciting, but neither of the two teams that advance from this group will be likely to be favored to get past the next round. Beyond Ivory Coast I just don’t know who to pick.
Group D. One of the more brutal groups. Costa Rica will be eliminated in all likelihood. Between Italy, England, and Uruguay it’s a very tough call. Unless Suarez is injured, in which case England and Italy will probably move forward. No Theo Walcott hurts England, but they have more depth this year than recently, in my opinion, even though they weren’t super impressive in qualifying. You can never write off Italy. My guess is England and Italy will advance even if Suarez is healthy, but it will be a battle. An exciting group!
Group E. France will advance and they should win this group. I don’t see them having two shitty World Cups in a row, despite some very shaky moments in qualifying; although they faced a playoff against Ukraine to qualify, they did beat Netherlands in a friendly earlier this year, 2-0. Honduras will probably lose the group. Between Ecuador and Switzerland: Switzerland won their group in qualifying, but it was a very weak group. Nonetheless Ecuador are not very impressive. France and Switzerland should advance. Could be exciting.
Group F. Argentina will probably dominate this group in way that will be fun to watch only if you support Argentina. Bosnia & Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria: who to pick? I’ll go with Nigeria, since they did win the 2013 African Cup of Nations. Although Bosnia etc. have Edin Džeko in very fine form playing for Manchester City FC, who won the Premiere League title this year, I think they will come in third. Iran will lose the group. If Nigeria advance, they’re a good choice to advance further than anyone might have expected.
Group G. “The Group of Death.” Ridiculously stacked group, with the lowest total FIFA ranking (by which I mean toughest) of any of the groups. Team USA will be lucky to move forward, but I think it’s possible. Portugal has little attacking depth beyond their superstar Ronaldo, but they have a stout, experienced, if somewhat aged defense. Germany will move forward, but they’ll have to earn it. Ghana has been the USA’s nemesis in recent years, but I think will probably lose the group, which is a real shame, seeing as how thin some of the other groups are. Team USA advances if they can manage to do no worse than tie Germany (and did beat them in a friendly earlier this year), neutralize Ronaldo, and finally beat Ghana who is really not quite as talented overall, in my opinion. This is a very exciting group. Most people will pick Germany and Portugal to advance, but I’m going with Germany and USA.
Group H. Belgium is better than people realize, I expect them to move forward. South Korea seems weak, but they are very disciplined and often do a lot better than expected. Better enough to beat Russia? I doubt it. Algeria will accomplish nothing.
Talk is cheap. Bring on the World Cup!