So what you’re saying is it won’t be very interesting at all?
How much have the odds shortened on a Germany-USA draw?
For the US-Germany match, Germany has almost zero incentive to attack. If they win, they win the group. If they tie, they win the group. If they lose, they win the group unless there is a huge goals scored swing. I’m sure that Germany will put their best side out there and work at 80%. The US should be able to keep up with that. Barring the all too typical defensive fuck up in the first 15 minutes.
If Germany loses it doesn’t win the group; the US does.
Damn, just came in to correct that. But Germany still advances if they lose, unless there is a huge goal scored swing.
I expect Germany will press despite the dodgy back line, or maybe even because of it.
Here’s my best effort at figuring out how the USA can advance:
If USA wins or draws USA advances no matter what
If Ghana and Portugal draw, USA advances no matter what
The only way USA fails to advance is if USA loses and Ghana/Portugal doesn’t draw
If USA loses by 1:
- If Ghana wins by more than 1 goal, Ghana advances
- If Ghana wins by 1 goal, best total goals advance; if total goals tied, USA advances (USA currently has 1 goal lead)
- If Portugal wins by more than 3 goals, Portugal advances
- If Portugal wins by 3 or fewer goals, USA advances
USA loses by 2:
- If Ghana wins, Ghana advances
- If Portugal wins by more than 2 goals, Portugal advances
- If Portugal wins by 1 or 2 goals, USA advances
USA loses by 3, USA doesn’t deserve to advance. At least not enough to write up a breakdown.
You don’t quite have it right. For example, if the US loses by 1 and Portugal wins by 4, then they’re tied on goal differential. Then it would come down to goals scored. If the US loses 5-4, then they’d likely advance in that scenario.
The NY Times keeps an updated and clearly-written explanation of the situation.(Should be free to non-subscribers who haven’t reached their monthly limit on articles.)
I view that as unlikely enough to ignore. If the USA loses by 1 and Portugal wins by 4, the overwhelming likelihood is that Portugal will advance.
I considered adding the qualifier “Not mathematically certain, some unusual/unlikely scores could change things” but figured that might be too pedantic.
EDIT: Of course, Portugal winning by 4 is itself extremely unlikely.
Mexico-Croatia and Italy-Uruguay will essentially be “playoff” games. Both should be fun to watch!
Not sure if anyone mentioned it today but Algeria looked awesome. That was a fun game to watch.
If they tie on goal differential why would you assume that Portugal is likely to advance? I’d think that given Portugal was shut out in their loss, tying on goal differential favors the US.
They looked good, and it was a really fun game to watch, but i’m not sure they’ve got the defensive chops to stick with the big guns.
But why would you assume that Portugal getting shut out would be the next important stat?
As i, and a couple of others, pointed out on the previous page, the order of criteria for the group rounds is:
- Total points
- Goal difference
- Total goals scored
- Head to head score
So, if the US loses 1-0 to Germany, and Portugal beats Ghana 4-0, then both Portugal and the US will have the same number of points, and the same goal difference, but Portugal will advance because they will have scored more total goals than the US. Same if the US loses 2-1, and Portugal wins 5-1. And so on.
As Ellis Dee said, if the US loses by 1, and Portugal wins by 4, then Portugal advances. This is, of course, a rather unlikely scenario.
So, so close for the USA… I kind of still feel in my heart like a loss, even though I know rationally it was a draw. Though I know that I’ll be optimistic for the next match (The US still has a great chance)
I’ll go ahead and retract this. Portugal played a very tough, gentlemanly match tonight. Aside from (literally) one or two instances, there was no simulation to speak of, no real whining, etc.
Very good match overall, though it’s amazing how much more enjoyable it would have been if it was the U.S. scoring the last-second equalizer.
You know, logically we all agree (at least, I assume we do). But emotionally, you are the worst type of person to be around during games like this.
And you are the single reason why the US lost the lead in a game they had in their pocket. You bastage!
For those of you interested, The ending of this game is how teams that were coached by Marty Schottenheimer (of the NFL) lost during every year he went to the playoffs.
The playing “not to lose” mentality killed the USA today. why not keep playing the way they did for the first 94 minutes? It was beautiful. They played well and pushed the action into Portugal’s end the entire match. Of course, when time was running out,
everyone forgot offense and started playing “prevent defense”, which seems to prevent the team in the lead from winning the game.
What a back-breaking tie.
Any tie is like kissing your sister. This tie was like sleeping with your sister. It absolutely feels like a loss. We had the key to the next round in our hands and dropped them. As I watch the replays, who in the fuck laid down to give that Portuguese forward a free play on that header? Run down the fucking field and defend someone.
Likely because they were exhausted and they made a mistake.
Ronaldo’s cross was literally perfect. The US was beaten by a stroke of brilliance not a tactical deficiency.