If the Swiss win 3-0, and Ecuador manage a goal and beat France 1-0, their goal differences will be the same (+1 for each team).
The Swiss would go through based on the next criterion, which is goals scored.
So to get through now, Ecuador needs to score 2, if i’ve calculated correctly.
They need two goals, rather than one. (One of those two goals could be by Honduras, though, so it’s not completely impossible.)
Ok, so Ecuador need two now…
For all the impressive performances the South American teams have showed, they’ll not be able to have it all their way in the knock out phase. At least one semi finalist, which will come from the group of Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Colombia… and for the rest just Argentina, which could go far as well (Switzerland and after that Belgium/US/Ghana/Portugal and in the semis Holland/Mexico/Costa Rica/Greece).
There might still be some Latin American dominance with the likes of Mexico and Costa Rica in a good draw.
On the other hand it could become very European with Holland, Belgium, France and Germany doing well. Both the low countries have a good World Cup record in Latin America with Holland reaching the final in 78 (losing to the hosts) and Belgium getting to the semis in 86 (Mexico); their best ever tournament.
France looked really good until they were kept score-less by 10 Ecuadorians. Wonder how they will fare against 11 Nigerians. I still think they’ll beat them, but nowhere near as sure as I was 3 hours ago.
They didn’t look great, but they did sit about six of their starters in this match. I wouldn’t worry too much about them, i don’t think.
So, if you’re Germany: if you win tomorrow, you run into France and Brazil before the final. If you lose, Argentina and Holland-or-Mexico. At that point, do you really care?
You always play to win.
I think the Americans are going to make Germany win.
Awesome:
Article 48 definitely applies, as I explained in my post.
Part 3 of Article 48 specifies that “The right is reserved to punish an infringement in accordance with art. 77 a).”
From Article 77: “The Disciplinary Committee is responsible for: a) sanctioning serious infringements which have escaped the match officials’ attention;”
Article 96 lays out the types of evidence that can be used in evaluating an incident. “The following are, in particular, admissible: reports from referees, assistant referees, match commissioners and referee inspectors, declarations from the parties and witnesses, material evidence, expert opinions and audio or video recordings.”
In other words, if the ref didn’t see it, we can still punish it later.
The FIFA page I linked to explains the charges.
If Ghana racks up 3 or 4 against a dispirited Portugal, they will definitely care. I don’t see any reason why Germany wouldn’t give a full effort tomorrow. If they are dumb enough to hold back and play for a draw, I hope the US makes them pay for it.
I think it very unlikely that the US can beat Germany if both sides are really trying. What I’m hoping for is something where one side scores early. The other side counterattacks furiously, eventually ties it up, and THEN both sides kind of chill out, having proven to the world that they really did care and weren’t just kicking it around for a draw.
I am worried, however, that Portugal will just not show up at all, so it might be easy for Ghana to be up a LOT.
We would be in INFINITELY better shape right now if Ghana had just lost to Germany the way the were supposed to. Although of course their result does show that Germany isn’t untouchable. So that’s a good thing. Ack! Too much stress!
All good, I hadn’t noticed subs 3.
Colombia will have to be heavy favourites over a Suarez-less Uruguay then.
I think so. I think Colombia have overall better team play and tactics than Uruguay, if they’re lacking Suarez the Biter.
Charges against Suarez will be reviewed by Evander Holyfield.
I’m totally lost on the red card for the Ecuadorian captain. Can someone explain?
From the replay it looks to me like he had the ball, the French player did a risky slide tackle UNDER the Ecuadorian guys foot, which, naturally, and what appears to me as something he couldn’t possibly help, ends up scraping up the French player’s leg. The only way the Ecuadorian guy could have avoided this is if he could, somehow, magicly perhaps, suspend the laws of physics and levitate. Once that leg is under his foot, and given his momentum, what happened was GOING to happen.
I was convinced the French player would get a card. When the Ecuadorian guy got expelled I was all like, what the f???
I just watched the red card incident. What a bunch of shin guard wearing Oscar nominee pansies. This was a normal slide tackle and unless the other player is capable of defying the laws of physics it was normal contact. I’d file the red card under game fixing.
Why is it, do you suppose, that none of the Ecuadorans protested the red card?
We’ve explained what happened earlier in the thread. I can buy that it wasn’t intentional, but it was reckless and, most importantly, clearly against the rules.
Here’s a video of highlights which include the red card.
At 34" in the video, Valencia has the ball, and kicks it forward.
Digne slides to knock the ball out of bounds, and gets there before Valencia.
Valencia then blasts into Digne, right foot studs up straight into Digne’s leg, raking over his knee and shins. This is quite clear at 45" in the video.
Automatic red card. No one from Ecuador protests, because everyone knew what it would be.
It was all really rather straightforward.
Not only that, but even the Ecuadorian manager didn’t protest about it after the game.
Furthermore, i’ve just looked up a bunch of stories about the game, and none of them call it a bad decision. The most that some writers will concede is the same thing that i’ve already conceded in this thread—that the foul might not have been intentional, but it was still a dangerous tackle. For example, the writer for the UK Guardian said:
Just about everyone else had no complaints at all. The folks at Bleacher Report referred to it as a “brutal studs-up tackle,” and an “awful challenge,” adding:
The match report at NBC Sports said that:
The UK’s Mirror noted that France’s trip to the next round was made: