Brazil is a country that has always had great promise-it is physically huge, with fertile land, and enormous resources. Until recently, it had a huge problem with energy-but now it has discovered vast offshore oil deposits-which are enought to make it self sufficient, or even an exporter.
This Sunday, there is a presidential election. The current president (“Lula”) is a working class guy who ran the government very conservatively-unlike his predecesors, he borrowed wisely, and paid off the countrie’s external debts. He also kept the currency (Reale) strong-and as a result, the economy is booming-Brazil now has a surplus, and a fast growing economy. Foreign investment is at an all-time high, and the prosperity is finally beginning to lift the poor.
I find this exciting-I have a personal interest (my wife is Brazilian); plus I remember how the country was described in the US press (in the 1960’s)-the “country of the future”-Brazil had a lot going for it, but sank into debt and corruption.
So, is this the dawn of a new day for Brazil? If trends continue like tjis, the country will have a huge middle class , and the poverty that has plagued it will disappear.
Or will the new president start squandering the surplus, and blowing money on “megaprojects”-that will enrich the old corrupt plutocrats?
I hope (for the sake of the long-suffering Brazilian people) that things continue to go well for Brazil!
Jeez, I’ll have to delurk just to comment on this. I’d been considering making a pit thread anyway.
I’m Scandinavian, married to a Brazilian, and I’ve been living in Rio de Janeiro for almost a year now. I have to say that the picture of Brazil in foreign news is shockingly rose-tinted in my experience, especially as regards Lula and his successor Dilma Rousseff.
OK, politics first: yes, Lula is a “working class guy who ran the government very conservatively”. He’s a labour leader with no education – he left school in the 4th grade. Brazilians joke even more about his mistakes in speech and basic knowledge than the English-speaking world jokes about George W. Bush. (my personal favourite – when he talked about South American development “from Patagonia to Tierra del Fuego”, thinking that would mean from one end of the continent to the other…) He ran the government very conservatively because he has virtually no new ideas.
The currency – real – is strong because of his predecessors, who created the Plano Real in 1994 when the previous currency collapsed; he’s just continuing that policy while taking credit for it.
Basic health care is improving mostly because of the availability of cheap medicine, since his predecessors (specifically José Serra, also a candidate for president this time around, yet again) allowed the production and sale of generic medication. As a consequence, my brother-in-law tells me that Brazil has the highest rate of self-medication in the world; from what I’ve seen, I believe it.
The main program to combat poverty, the bolsa família (financial aid for poor families with children) was started by – you guessed it – Lula’s predecessors, although he widened the scope and decreased the requirements. In theory, it should help the poorest to escape poverty. In practise, it pays the poor to stay home and breed (more kids = more government money), so the poor have a lesser incentive to find work, or better work, to escape poverty.
Dilma Rousseff is Lula’s successor; she will win only because Lula told people to vote for her. She’s never held elected office. As to her past, foreign newspapers only mention that in the 60s she was active in leftist political movements; in reality she was one of the leaders of a terrorist cell responsible for murders, kidnappings, bank robberies, and bombings. (There’s no proof that she personally participated, but she almost certainly planned many of these actions. She herself neither confirms nor denies any of this – she essentially claims to have no recollection of the 60s)
As to why Lula is so popular, and Dilma will be president: the Lula government has given a lot of handouts to the poor, and Dilma will continue this program. Thus, the poor will all vote for more of the same; and Brazil requires everyone to vote (not voting is punishable by a hefty fine). About 12% of the population can’t read or write, but still has to vote!
Then there’s the restriction of the press - before the political campaigns heated up, the government passed a law prohibiting political satire in the press.
(Notice I never mentioned political parties. Brazilian politics isn’t based on ideology, except perhaps for the communist party and a few others; it’s based on personalities, and crooks watching out for each other. Also, note that I’m not saying Lula’s predecessors were necessarily better because they started some good programs – they were incredibly corrupt, though the current government isn’t significantly better. There are embezzlers and bribe-takers in government, and they don’t lose their jobs)
As for economics: Lula has also been incredibly lucky in having a boring presidency (the only excitement was discovering oil – basically free money). The financial crisis passed Brazil because the laws about investments are so antiquated that the banks couldn’t get involved even though they wanted to. Piracy is everywhere, from software to toothbrushes. But OK, statistics are saying that everyone is getting richer, and living standards are improving, which is excellent. However, I wonder if maybe it’s just an adjustment in the Big Mac Index (so everybody is in fact getting richer, and luxury products are becoming more affordable, but basic living costs are soaring? Real estate prices are skyrocketing in Rio, anyway, at least where I live) Maybe foreign investment is because Brazil seems stable for once and everywhere else seems even worse? I’m not sure. Brazil remains one of the most unequal societies in the world in terms of wealth distribution, however.
The biggest hurdle to Brazilian development is Brazil itself. So much here is half-assed. I’ve been here for nearly a year and still don’t have a bank account or a work permit – because the Ministry of Work in Rio has been on strike or work slowdowns for nearly a year, and I can’t get a bank account or a legal, taxpaying job without a piece of paper they can’t be bothered to file (they’re striking for a 30-hour work week at the same salary). I don’t have a deed on my apartment because I need a paper from the Caixa Economica, one of the government banks, to show there’s no mortgage on it. The previous owner has been trying to get this paper since 1998. In the past, the government has instituted taxes on savings (to force people to invest; then the stock market had a bit of a crash. Oops) or taxes on all bank transactions (even moving your own money from your salary account to your savings account). Opening a new business is a bureaucracy nightmare that would drive Dante insane. And as of Thursday, the banks are all on strike. Most people just don’t care about doing a decent job, or working on their education - which will really restrict development in the long term, in my opinion.
OK, this is far too long now, I’ll stop here. Basically, my opinion is this: Lula is no hero, he’s lucky. Brazilian economic development is overdue, but I think it’s still being held back enormously by bureaucracy and stupidity. Brazil can only have the enormous economic boom of which it’s capable if the government eliminates bureaucracy (unlikely) and corruption (impossible), and if the population place more value on education and try to succeed.
God knows there’s enormous potential here, after all.
I thought this was gonna be about that movie…
Mm. Brazil is certainly happening for real over here now that’s for sure. 
Goldman Sachs predicts that the 4 BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) could be the dominant economic powers in 2050. I, for one, welcome our new Hindu Communist speedo wearing overlords.
Brazil is a shitheap full of morons obsessed with soccer and Formula One. It is the nec plus ultra of violence, corruption and misery. If ever a country was loathsome, that country would be Brazil.
Ah, the miracle of multi-ethnism 
:rolleyes:
Only if they stay away from their current infatuation with the nut jobs of the world, for example: Chavez in Venezuela and Ahmadinejad in Iran.
Making it “Hands-Down” superior to Canada.
I wouldn’t celebrate the Petrobras discovery just yet. Aside from the fact that the deposits are under miles of ocean and then even more miles of rock, it’s a few hundred miles off shore as I recall. Not only will you have the logistics of getting the oil to a processing facility, I don’t think Brazil has the infrastructure to do such processing. The BP disaster was just that, but it also taught the industry the need for some humility in dealing with the kind of extremes you confront in deep water drilling. The problems Petrobras will face are probably going to be even more challenging. I think this is still far from being a done deal.
I was in Brazil for work 2 years ago. I worked with a bunch of very professional folks, which included a bodyguard who was on call 24/7. I don’t really need that in the US…
At the time, several of the folks I was working with were excited about new Apple products (“i-Anything”), but they weren’t affordable there. The currency seemed way out whack - food was cheap (and delicious), but consumer products were significantly pricier than in the states. Women of ill-repute were very fairly priced, although (much to the chagrin of my hosts) I didn’t partake - call me a loyal boyfriend and phobic about STDs (but damn, was it ever tempting!).
That said, Brazil is a truly beautiful country (especially once you escape the cities, IMO) with vast resources. I hope that, as industrialization/commercialization marches forward there, the natural beauty of the place isn’t too badly impacted. Damn, I want to go back NOW!! If only for a caiphurnina (that spelling is almost certainly wrong).
I’ve studied this quite a bit. Probably not as much as Goldman Sachs, but I’ve talked with people who have. Did you leave the United States out on accident, or are you taking it for granted?
My prediction of 21st century economic powerhouses is: US, (an increasingly unified) EU, China, India, Brazil, and Japan.
Russia will continue to be a military force to be reckoned with, but not economic.
I’ve studied it less than either you or GS.
I only included the BRIC countries because they are developing nations. The US would likely be in the top 5, probably the top 3. I believe the prediction is that the BRIC countries collectively would exceed the US and several of the EU countries.