One presumes Iran would much prefer to let its proxies do the work but felt obliged to demonstrate a response. Since this did not amount to much, the bigger question is if there is a reaction no one really wants, and how big a reaction.
there sure are a 1000 ways to read y/days attack …
but I think the most prominent reading is "Iran’s attack did little to nothing to Israel, and for this reason, Israel is today a more relieved/tranquil country (we passed the acid test)"
IOW, Iran spent a lot of $$$ on flies and mosquitoes that ended up as ugly spots on Israel’s windshield - and exposed themselves as somewhat “weaker than many thought”.
Some analysts have noticed that this drone and missile attack resembles the tactical approach Russia uses in its own missile raids on Ukraine.
But Israel is well equipped to defend against this type of attack and furthermore had external help that Ukraine can’t.
The Israelis, so far, have never confirmed or denied that they have nuclear weapons (even if everyone is pretty sure they do). I don’t see them making a threat like that.
Also, not keen on threatening a nuclear strike in general, whether it’s meant seriously or not.
I think that’s exactly what happened.
What makes you think those urban dwellers will be allowed to leave? Ever try to evacuate a city? Ever read up on when that has been attempted in the past? Not an easy task even if authorities are trying to keep things going smoothly. If authorities are actively obstructing…?
Definitely - absolutely every nation capable of monitoring what happened will have been taking notes. Not just Iran but China, Russia, the US, France, UK, India, Pakistan and many, many more.
But I quibble with the “first” part of the statement - see Ukraine. They’ve been dealing with combined drone/missile strikes since the invasion, but without Israeli-caliber air defenses. Heck, even a lot of the drones the Russians are using are Iranian made.
The Eisenhower is in the region but I don’t think it was invited to the party.
Based on what I could see of the Washington Post article before the demand for money popped up, the 494th fighter squadron based in Britain and 335th fighters from Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina. Possibly some drone-vs-drone as a GUESS because I have zero about that, it just occurred to me as maybe a possibility. Britain and France were also supposed to be involved somehow.
Nuclear weapons can be launched by far more capable rockets (ICBM’s) the go into space and return. They can detonate above the Iron Dome/Patriot defenses (although not the Arrow level of interceptros). Even if you intercept them the radioactive crap inside is going to fall somewhere and that stuff is very unhealthy to be around.
As Alessan mentioned, the Russians have never used those Shahed missiles or any of their other drones in this sort of massed way (they don’t need to, since Ukraine is in range of massed artillery fire, which is the traditional area of strengrh for the Russians anyways).
And, the Ukranian air defense system isn’t really on par with the air defense systems of, say, the key NATO allies (and that’s criminally negligent on the part of those NATO allies, but that’s another topic). Israel’s is not in quantity perhaps, but for the limited range it must defend, certainly).
Very few countries possess ICBMs, and Iran is not one of them (unless they’ve been very secretive about developing one). They probably could build one, given time, since they have an orbital launch vehicle; but probably not without anyone knowing.
First use of SM-3 anti-ballistic missiles (in anger) confirmed. Launched from two US Destroyers off the coast of Israel.
Intel from other nations in area was used to coordinate the response to incoming drones, cruise and ballistic missiles.
On the Israeli side, it has now been announced that the weekend’s operation was named “Iron Shield”.
You cannot threaten a nuclear strike, except in the context of deterrence (Launch on Warning and similar strategies), because you can’t actually use nuclear weapons, especially if you know you’ll get obliterated back by e.g. a strategic Russian counterstrike within minutes. Israel was (allegedly) told as much in 1973 and Soviet tactical nukes were loaded onto a ship and sent towards Egypt.
I suspect India and Pakistan were likewise told that back when it become official they both had The Bomb and were engaged in a staring contest.
But you certainly CAN use atomic weapons - it’s been done twice on two cities. Can’t say something that has occurred is impossible. You can say the price for doing a thing is too steep for same people to ever consider paying.
That is extraordinary.
Not so extraordinary when you consider that those countries really, REALLY don’t want to see the entire region blow up.
Those countries are as much in a proxy war with Iran as Israel is.
True, the longstanding Sunni/Shia conflict shows no signs of going away.
Wasn’t the premise for the timing of October 7th Israel’s impending treaty with the Saudis?
Yes, and the Saudis are publically acknowledging this now. It looks like the attempt to torpedo the normalization of relationships has failed.
It is possible that this might wind up accelerating normalization.
Everyone doesn’t have to be friends, but normalizing relations between nations and cooperating on mutual interests (like defense) would be a definite positive for the region.
I hope you are correct.
But the source seems to be houseofsaud.com, an English-language only web site that is apparently, to use an old phrase historically used to describe Arab newspapers, only semi-official.
I saw a paywalled report saying that such leaks are angering Saudi leaders.
I like your posts. I even hesitate to post on these matters thinking you will do a better job. But so much of this is hard to know in the fog of war. Think how differently it would feel today if everything had gone the same on Saturday night except for one direct missile hit on the Israeli parliament building.
I wonder if all the cooperation was with the idea it would help Israel. The Iranians assured Jordan and Saudi Arabia that the drones and missiles were all targeted at Israel, but is it possible those governments were afraid they were also targeted? I presume that U.S. Navy doctrine leads to a concern that any flying missile in the area puts our ship in danger. So the help to Israel wasn’t just for Israel’s benefit.
Annnnd … Israel appears to be retaliating:
Sigh.