Brexit - general discussion thread

I don’t buy that argument. The EU wants the agreement to be accepted by Parliament, and the hardliners are going to vote against it regardless. It’s the majority they want to win over, not the hardliners.

The version I’ve seen is much simpler. The EU leaders asked May, ‘What assurances would you like us to give, that will deliver a majority for you in Parliament?’

May couldn’t say.

The EU’s entirely reasonable reaction was, ‘Well, if you don’t know exactly what you want, how are we supposed to know?’ Hence Jean-Claude Juncker using the expression “nebulous and imprecise”. One EU leader is said to have remarked, ‘Wouldn’t it have been better for May to build a majority for some version of the deal before asking for our help?’

The problem all along has been that May has never really known what she wants. She just muddles along hoping that something will come up. She’s been focused on trying to propitiate the hardliners (who will never be satisfied with anything less than a hard Brexit), rather than trying to build a cross-party majority for a moderate deal.

Yeah, because that’s the main reason why they voted, nothing to do with the legacy of 2008 financial crisis crisis at all…

It had a lot to do with the 2008 financial crisis, and even more to do with a system that is set up to favour the corporations and wealthy at the expense of ordinary people.

But Russia most certainly tipped the balance. Without Russia’s influence, Trump wouldn’t have been elected, and Leave wouldn’t have won. Fear and racism and propaganda and lies and misdirected anger wouldn’t have won.

Trump is not going to bring back good jobs or make America great again. Brexit is not going to make Britain great again either. The people at the bottom of the economic scale are going to suffer in both cases, and the people at the top are going to gain. So is Russia.

It is clear in the present situation that from the EU point of view giving any concession where the Ma government has no power will only lead to more of the hostage taking by the extremists Brexiters, so it is a negative to negotiate now.

This is easy to understand.

What is hard for me to understand is how the Labour party can tolerate its leadership that is in the essential handing power to the conservative extreme Brexiters… that is hard to understand.

Ivan Rogers, former UK representative to the EU, recently gave a speech at Liverpool University, which he titled 9 Lessons of Brexit. If you want to understand where we are, how we got here and what our options are, he is the guy to listen to. It’s a very fair speech, with criticism for Leavers, Remainers and the EU. It’s quite long, but highly recommended. Some highlights:

On being a third country

[/quote]
At virtually every stage in this negotiation, the EU side has deployed transparency, whether on its position papers, its graphic presentations of its take on viable options and parameters, its “no deal” notices to the private sector to dictate the terms of the debate and shape the outcome.

A secretive, opaque Government, hampered of course in fairness by being permanently divided against itself and therefore largely unable to articulate any agreed, coherent position, has floundered in its wake.

It is a rather unusual experience for the EU – always portrayed as a bunch of wildly out of touch technocrats producing turgid jargon-ridden Eurocrat prose up against “genuine” politicians who speak “human” – to win propaganda battles. Let alone win them this easily.
[/quote]

But for me the stand out line was:

Is there any way to short Britain? I only have a few thousand but I reckon it’s probably pretty easy money. EDIT: or, at least, was easy money several years ago immediately after the brexit referendum. By now it’s probably the kind of “safe bet” thing that has very middling returns.

Also I love how this guy is saying a lot of the same stuff the rest of us were telling Quartz and Novelty Bobble and they kept waving away.

Jeez, y’think? :rolleyes:

I’m wary of any narrative that shifts blame from the economic legacy of Neo-Liberalism to Russia, who at best is a peripheral player in all of this. I mean all the anger was already there.

The anger and grievances of the people who voted for Trump and for Brexit are real and genuine, and they are due to the economic system, as you say.

But people have been lied to. They have been misled into believing that the causes of their grievances are ‘immigration’, or ‘EU regulations’, or ‘liberal values’, or whatever. These are not the causes.

They have been told that the solution is leaving the EU, or electing Trump. These are not the solutions. On the contrary they are making the situation worse, and getting in the way of dealing with the real issues.

Russia took advantage of this situation and poured a huge amount of disinformation and funding into both these campaigns. The results of both were very close. To imagine that Russia didn’t tip the balance is unrealistic. If Russia hadn’t done that, Clinton would be president, Cameron would be prime minister, and Brexit wouldn’t have happened. The underlying problems wouldn’t have been addressed - but they are not being addressed now either. And now a whole extra layer of new problems and distractions are being added.

Lovely plumage.

Because I’m a bored masochist with nothing much better to do today, I’ve been reading through some of the old (not that old, but it seems like eons ago) Scottish indyref threads. Turns out that ideological nationalist rhetoric is all a bit samey. Fact-free, disconnected from reality guff. Who knew?

Looks good.

But how many MPs are going to be happy with a minor concession and vote yes, versus figuring that if the EU caved in one way they could cave more?

Yeah, that was in the article also. I suspect she couldn’t say because there is no reasonable answer to that question - one that would satisfy both the EU and the holdouts.

I’m sure the hardliners would just love a Brexit with all the benefits and none of the costs, the kind of thing they sold to the public.

I say that if a hard Brexit looks inevitable, make Boris PM and let him deal with it.

Wow, yes, it does! I didn’t recognize

Benedict Cumberpatch

until about halfway through.

The bit that got moved is large aero engines.

Porsche doesn’t make that. Ge/safran does.

The bits of RR that used to make the cars are now part of Bentley , owned by Volkswagen, (who own Porsche).So Bentley is a RR car competition, …

Labour have to turn round to 1/3 of their support - but 61% of their constituencies - and tell them they voted stupidly-wrongly.

And they don’t have the balls.

Live from 10 Downing Street it’s Happy Christmas, Britain!

Anything with dancing bobbies can’t be all bad!

The EU has been a convenient scapegoat for UK politicians for decades and a target for the populist press who like nothing better than to blame the countries woes onto this foreign bureaucracy that thinks it has some authority over the UK decision making. An endless procession of stories about badly behaved immigrants, stupid rules on standards imposed by faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and outrage at the decisions in the European Court of Human Rights that affect the UK. The fact that the ECHR is quite separate from the EU does not seem to matter. It is all stuff coming from Europe that offends notions of sovereignty.

Many working class voters lapped this up. Everything to do with Europe is bad news and ripe for a protest vote. And vote they did. They voted more MPs to the European Parliament that were UKIP than either Conservative or Labour in 2014. That they voted in large numbers to leave the EU in the Brexit Referendum did not come as a surprise to me. It was seen as a troublesome waste of money that would be better spent on the NHS.

Most voters are utterly bemused and confused by all the arguments since the 2016 vote. They imagined it was like calling the bank to cancel a club subscription. They had no idea that is was a complicated trade treaty and the foundation of a huge proportion of UK international trade and the consequences would be felt for decades to come.

The Brexit faction of the Conservative party present Brexit as ‘the democratic will of the people’. Introducing a confusing constitutional angle to the whole debate. They argue that the Brexit vote of 52/48 is a political mandate that is binding on the Government. Theresa May presents this as her prime political objective despite the fact that what it means has never been clearly defined and her solution is unacceptable by both Leave and Remain factions of her party.

Labour are also divided. Its current leadership under Corbyn has maintained an ambiguous stance on the whole Brexit issue. They know that they have to keep their powder dry until there is either the opportunity to force a no confidence vote in the Government or else wait until the end of the 5 year term and there is a General Election in 2022.

If May loses the vote she has delayed until January, a confidence vote might be possible. She is going to delay it as much as she can to force her MPs to back her or face dealing with leaving the EU with No Deal. No Government is looking forward to dealing with that. They know that it will require huge preparations and big war chest to meet the expenses. All those other things a Government should be doing will be on hold.

Labour really have few options. Calling for a second Referendum is one of them. But that raises a lot of problems about that the question should be and what to do if the Government cannot deliver. A second referendum might not solve the problem unless its consequences are carefully thought out. Something that certainly did not happen last time.

Brexit is not a Right v Left issue. Both the big parties are split on its interpretation and the solution. Labours deadlock is not quite so obvious as the Tories, but it is there nonetheless. I am sure there are some vigorous debates behind the scenes.

Sadly no politician seems to have the guts to say that this was a mistake, we asked the people to vote on something that we are unable to deliver without dividing the country. Cameron should say something like that when May is ousted. He is keeping very quiet though he bears great responsibility for dividing both his party and the country.

There seems no way to put this genie back in the bottle.

However, looking on the bright side, we don’t have a populist reality TV egomaniac in charge of the country and we don’t have riots on the streets.

It would be nice to get back to normal politics.:rolleyes:

I think these concerns about a second referendum deepening divides are scaremongering.

Well, kind of. I see the point, but brexiting - with the deal or with no Deal - will divide the country even more and anger far, far more than if it were cancelled.

At least with a second vote, people can only blame themselves. Or if we remain, we can seek to heal those divisions from a position of relative economic safety.
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