I think this is pretty hard.
First, I really dislike the way that the EU is heading. In terms of European integration, the Euro has been a disaster, as countries using the single currency need to integrate much more to address the severe problems within that currency, whilst those on the outside are now at risk of being consistently outvoted by a caucusing Eurozone. The UK and others outside the single currency need some protection, which doesn’t seem forthcoming from the rest of the EU. If the choice really is between leaving and being consistently outvoted on banking and economic matters by the likes of the French, Italians and Greeks, then I think we should leave. Hopefully, Merkel’s recent overtures to Cameron are indicative that she understands Britain’s problem, and some accommodation will be made.
Second, I think we’re seeing more and more of a power grab by Brussels over what it can (and what it should be) regulating. There seems to be no firm limit or agreement on what is a competency of Brussels, and what is a competency of national governments — it’s like death from a thousand cuts where small competencies are slowly being grabbed by Brussels, slowly centralising the whole continent. The recent debacle over olive oil containers on restaurant tables is an example. There’s absolutely no reason why this required the attention of Brussels, or co-ordinated action across the entire continent. The reasoning from bringing in the law itself was pretty weak, with very little firm evidence that a real public health/fraud problem was at hand. It was just lobbying by Southern European olive oil plantations trying to enact protectionist measures across the whole continent via the EU. Thankfully public outcry stopped this law, but other dubious laws (like limits on banker remuneration) have been welcomed with open arms.
Third, I kind of agree with Cameron that the EU needs to be much more competitive and cut back on the protectionism that plagues the organisation. Why can’t countries pick and choose which parts of the organisation they are a party to? The organisation really is turning into something that nobody really wants, and something has to give. Speaking to other Europeans I have yet to meet one who is happy with what the EU is, and what it looks set to become. It has no popular mandate, it’s bureaucratic, inefficient and adds an extra layer of government and another series of politicians.
However, I have benefited from being in the EU. I’ve lived and worked in Italy, employed as a scientist funded by the EU, making use of the right to freedom of movement throughout the Continent that the EU brings. British business undoubtedly benefits from the single market and the trade agreements that the EU can negotiate. The structural funds, pumping development money into Eastern Europe, are helping to build a middle class there which will eventually demand British goods. All of this at the moment probably is enough to make me turn a blind eye to the bad parts of the EU, so, today I’d probably vote to stay in, but can see myself changing opinion unless there’s some serious reform over the next decade.