I’ll add that I’m horrified by the Liberals’ win. My wife is a teacher, and BC just came off a contentious labour dispute between Clark (a former minister of education herself) and the teacher’s union that saw a job action from the union and being legislated back to work for a year under the terms of the “net zero” contract (meaning net zero increase over the previous contract) that the gov’t was offering.
They legislated it for a year because they thought they would lose the upcoming election, and were kicking the can down the road. At the time, major figures in the BC Liberal Party were resigning en masse, including George Abbott, the then-current education minister, under the expectation of a big loss, and a desire to distance themselves from a coming electoral disaster.
Clark became premier because her predecessor (Gordon Campbell) resigned in office, and Clark won the Liberal leadership convention to take over. Typically in that situation, the heir will call an election relatively soon to get an electoral mandate, but Clark deferred it for the maximum possible of a couple years because the polls said they’d get murdered. Her predecessor was massively unpopular when he resigned.
So it’s not just an upset win for the BC Liberals. It’s an upset win for a wildly unpopular party that everyone, including them, thought they’d lose badly. The whole result is just… weird.
Anyway, the teachers are now hunkering down, expecting that their existing net-zero contract is going to be legislated again, except this time for ten years because that’s what the Liberals wanted in the first place, and they’ve demonstrated already that they’re quite happy to legislate it.
That’s correct. For instance, Prime Minister Mackenzie King represented the riding of Prince Albert, Saskatchewan for about 20 years, living the whole time in Ottawa.
Prime Minister Macdonald represented Victoria, B.C. for one term, having lost his home seat of Kingston, Ontario, where he lived.
When Brian Mulroney won the leadership of the PC Party in 1983, he didn’t have a seat in the Commons. Elmer MacKay (Peter MacKay’s father) resigned his seat in Nova Scotia and Mulroney won it in a by-election, so he could become the Leader of the Official Opposition. When Turner called the general election in 1984, Mulroney ran in a Montreal riding, which he won. (MacKay ran again in his old seat and got re-elected and named to Cabinet.)
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Typically in that situation, the heir will call an election relatively soon to get an electoral mandate, but Clark deferred it for the maximum possible of a couple years because the polls said they’d get murdered.
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Not necessarily. For instance, Lorne Calvert won the NDP leadership here in Saskatchewan in 2001, but didn’t call a general election until 2003.
One reason for deferring a general is for the new Premier to put their own stamp on the government and get the public acceptance. Another is the stage in the electoral cycle; voters sometimes get upset by a snap election before the normal four year term is up (see: David Peterson of Ontario). If the new Premier comes in mid-way through the cycle, as was the case with Clark and Calvert, that may be a factor in delaying the general until the normal four years are up.
This sort of thing can happen in the States. A few years ago, the speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives was defeated in his district, while at the same time his party retained its majority in the House as a whole.
Clearly, the voters of the State were happy with the party overall, but the voters in his district didn’t like him personally. Or, more correctly, didn’t like him as much as the other guy.
When that happens in the US, does it end the career, or can the defeated pol to get elected in a by-election? Is there a residency requirement? Would other members reign their seat to give him a chance to run again?
And the speculation is growing as to which Liberal party stalwart is going to be asked to step aside; the Globe and Mail has published a speculative list of five possible ridings where the Premier might persuade the incumbent to step aside.
And, in an interesting twist, it looks like the NDP is saying it will heavily contest whichever riding she runs in. That’s a bit of a break with tradition - in the past in these types of cases, the opposition parties have often put up a pro forma candidate, but not really tried to keep the Premier out of the House.
I was just at a barbecue on the weekend with several NDP stalwarts–one party elder, one campaign worker, and generally a very NDP crowd.
Do you remember the episode of Fawlty Towers where they’re all “Don’t mention the war!”? Yeah, it was kind of like that. Except I did get a bit out of the campaigner, who said that the NDP did, in fact, have internal polling showing a tied or losing race. Dix refused to go negative, though, which is generally viewed as necessary to counter an opponent’s negative advertising. So, apparently it wasn’t the surprise it was perceived to be.
Newly elected MLA Ben Stewart came into work last week, was sworn in as the MLA for his riding, and promptly resigned his seat: Stewart steps aside so Clark can run in Westside-Kelowna. Stewart won his seat by 58% in a four-way race in the general election, so it’s a pretty safe Liberal seat.
Premier Clark immediately called a byelection for mid-July, and announced that she would stand for election in the byelection.
The NDP has said that they’re going to fight hard for the seat, which I gather is traditionally not done, and CBC reported some discontent from Westside Kelownans (Kelowners? Kelownites?) that she met the Alberta premier there last week (if I recall correctly), but didn’t address local issues.
What happens if she loses? Will she give up, or will there be domino resignations?
I’m not aware of a case where a Premier or Prime Minister was defeated a second time.
However, it did happen once with a Minster of Defence: General Andrew McNaughton. Prime Minister King appointed him Minister of Defence in November, 1944, even though he didn’t have a seat in the Commons. McNaughton ran in a by-election in February 1945, and was defeated. He ran again in the general election in June, 1945, and was again defeated. He resigned as Minister of Defence in August 1945.
I would think that politically, if she isn’t able to win in such a safe seat, there would be great pressure on her to step down.