I’m putting this is GD because A) it’s political and B) I’m voting Conservative, so it shouldn’t take long before someone calls me a baby-killing fascist.
Tomorrow is election Day. The Conservatives have a steady lead but there’s many things to be decided. The NDP could break through. Will the Liberals do badly, or really badly. How much of their early lead have the Bloc squandered? Who will hold the balance of power?
Here’s the game:
Predict the number of seats won by each party. The person who is the closest (defined as the person whose delta between their guesses for each party and the actual outcome adds up to the lowest number) wins a $10 gift certificate to Chapters/Indigo, courtesy of RickJay, mailed to you at my expense. If any American friends want to enter and win I will substitute a Borders gift certificate
Tell us who you’re voting for and why and who you expect to win locally.
I’ll post mine:
Conservative 137, Liberal 82, BQ 59, NDP 40. (Note: if I win, the prize goes to the second place contestant. My entry’s just for fun.)
I’m voting Conservative because A) I think a change is desperately needed, for both the country and the Liberal Party, B) Paul Martin is an absolute goober and a terrible Prime Minister, and B) I think there is exactly zero chance the Conservatives would do any of the horrible socially regressive things they’re being accused of wanting to do.
However, I believe the local Liberal candidate, Navdeep Bains, will win, because A) He got 77% of the vote last time, which is a hell of a lead, B) he’s got a lot of business contacts in the South Asian community, which is big here, and C) he seems like a nice guy.
I’m voting Green, because I dislike the Conservative candidate intensely, don’t want to vote for this Liberal government and have an allergy to voting for the NDP. I also am hoping to see a greater variety of voices in Parliament and this is hopefully a step towards that. Although I’m troubled by Green Party Jim Harris personally, I like the “Green Tory” model.
I live in Calgary West, so this riding is a foregone conclusion. It will go to The Conservatives and Rob Anders, who is one of the most embarassing MPs in recent memory. When people talk about the American neo-con influence on the (former) Reform and Conservative parties, this is exactly the guy they’re talking about. He’s actually gotten some heat this time around for his ineffectual performance as a representative and frequent AWOL trips during the election (He has never once shown up to a candidates’ debate, to my knowledge). The Liberal candidate has done a good job of taking him on directly on this and other similar issues, but it ain’t happening in this election.
ndp 34
I think you’ve got a good handle on the conservatives and the bq, but too many of us find the ndp irrelevant.
I’m voting for the Liberals and I don’t even like Martin, because of the bullshit he put Chretien through leading up to his leadership, but I don’t blame him for the scandels within the party, so that doesn’t factor into my choice. Economically and socially, the Liberals have a remarkable record that has made our country the envy of the world. Don’t screw with success. I like his plan for post secondary education assistance which I hope will be in place by the time my 14 year old reaches university.
I used to like the progressive conservatives, but I believe the alliance/reform have a hidden agenda. Harper may have a nice smile, but you know the song
Reasons: I think the Tories peaked too soon (or rather, the Ontario vote is shying away again, now that the phrase “Tory majority” is being bandied about). However, I think their support is more solid this time, and Paul’s attack ads are looking tired and desperate, so I think they’ll get the plurality.
I think the NDP will pay the traditional price of losing votes for having supported the minority government.
Bloq will do well, but I don’t think they’ll get their goal of 50% of the popular vote - I expect the Tories and Grits will split the remaining ~15 Quebec seats.
I’ve heard that the Greens are campaigning well in Nunavut, where global warming is actually having an impact, and it’s a small enough riding (in terms of population) that a small swing, plus personal ties, may make the difference.
Grits get what’s left, but won’t have a Kim Campbell melt-down, and will form the official opposition.
If you don’t mind, I don’t talk about how I’m actually going to vote. Overall, I think the Tories will hold most of the seats in Saskatchewan; Goodale will be re-elected; there’s a chance the Grits will pick up the northern seat, which is traditionally a left-leaning seat that went Tory in 2004 because the former Liberal incumbent ran as an independent. Don’t know if the NDP have any chance of picking up a seat.
Okay, this will seem out there, but I think we’re in for a surprise tomorrow or Tuesday.
Liberals: 112
Conservatives: 107
BQ: 58
NDP: 31
I’ll be voting NDP or Green, if there’s a Green candidate in my area. I still have to go over some summery’s of the campaign to see what the NDP support. If I like what they say, they’ll get my vote, if not I’ll see what the Green have to offer, and if there’s a candidate in my area. If I don’t like them, I’ll go Liberal.
Conservatives are my last choice because I’m afraid of a religious right moral attitude appearing in this country. Oh, and the soldiers on the streets, with GUNS! Liberal’s are my second to last because I think Paul Martin is losing it, he’s been getting more and more flakey as the campaign went on. It’s just some things like the handgun ban have me questioning them. And I chose NDP because Layton brainwashed me during that last english debate. I would rather avoid the Conservatives and the Liberals, so that leave’s the “third choice”.
Well, I see some predictions here have a greater NDP presence. I should have made that number higher, but it’s in stone now. But I do think there will be some surprises tomorrow and that’s why I predict a Liberal minority. Plus, I really want that prize, so I got to make a long shot guess to make sure I’m the only one who’ll get it, if my prediction is right.
Thanks again Rickjay for starting this and offering the prize.
Oh, and I meant to add: Rickjay, you have 10 extra seats in your prediction. Wanna inform the rest of the country if your gonna start changing things on us?
I only noticed because I added it up to figure out the number of seats, then had to look it up anyway. I’m terribly ignorant when it comes to politics, but this election has gotten me interested. So this thread actually helped me learn a little bit more.
Conservatives 119
Liberals 100
BQ 58
NDP 30
Other 1
I’ll be voting for the NDP. I won’t vote Conservative, I can’t vote Liberal and I despise Jim Harris. Once they get rid of him, I’d consider the Green Party. But for now, I’m staying orange.
Windsor West will stay with Brian Masse, NDP. Some longtime residents of the riding have told me that they’re voting NDP, which they normally wouldn’t, because they share Masse’s views on the creation of another border crossing with Detroit. If it wasn’t for the bridge, this might be a race.
