I will, as usual, vote Conservative. I live in the Don Valley West riding so my ‘X’ will go beside John Carmichael’s name.
As for the final results, here’s my WAG:
Conservative 150
Liberal 78
Bloc 56
NDP 24
Green 0
Amending mine to
C 135
L 92
B 50
NDP 30
Other 1
Okay. I’ll toss the Conservatives another seat.
Conservative 132
Liberal 88
BQ 54
NDP 33
All Others 1
Another fascist here.
I think it will be closer than the polls have shown the past few days.
C 131
L 101
B 56
NDP 20
i’m voting ndp, cause, well, i’m a social democrat, and that’s the closest we have to a social democrat party in this country.
but that doesn’t matter, i live in a riding that is going ndp, and by a healthy margin.
i could break down my riding-by-riding analysis, or give province-by-province results, but i’ll spare you all the several- post effort and just make gut reaction picks on the thirty or so too close to call ridings for a total of:
conservative: 131
liberal: 77
bloc quebecois: 59
ndp: 41
green / ind. / other: 0
in short, i’m predicting a conservative minority that will last about as long, give or take three months, as the outgoing liberal government.
many canadians are willing to give harper a chance, but in a very cautionary way. there are also going to be some very interesting 3-way splits, and many ridings across the country painted in colours not seen for a long time, if ever.
i’m also predicting that we will see several by-elections within the next six months, as martin & several of his cabinet members find it difficult to sit in the opposition benches. how these will break & influence the standing in the house depend on the timing & individuals choosing to stand down, and whether few, many, or most of the likely suspects wait out a liberal leadership convention, or jump ship in anticipation of.
and just to add, please, please, all canadians: don’t forget to vote tomorrow! i guess that it’s today by now… at any rate, on january 23, 2006, your vote does matter.
no matter the candidate or party you support, it is important that you vote. if you are unsure at all of when & where to cast your ballot, visit www.elections.ca and enter your postal code.
It won’t be 1993-style annihilation of the ruling party, but it’ll be close.
PC: 177
Bloc: 58
Lib: 50
NDP: 23
Locally, I’m planning to back my man Pierre Poilievre again. He’ll probably win. Everywhere you look is one of his signs stuck into a snowbank. I asked him if he’d rather Unreal Tournament or Quake 3. I haven’t heard back yet. I’ll keep ya’ll up-to-date on the matter though.
oh, and i thought i’d add my (totally unofficial, and completely unconnected to this thread) prediction of popular votes:
conservative: 35.8%
liberal: 29.4%
ndp: 21.3%
bloc quebecois: 10.8%
green: 2.6%
other: 0.5%
(does not equal 100% due to rounding.)
Cons 116
Libs 105
NDP 30
BQ 56
Other 1
I see lots of people are predicting way fewer Libs and way more Cons than me. I have faith in the Canadian voter’s commitment to chickening out and voting Liberal at the last minute.
I’m voting NDP, because I live in Peggy Nash’s riding, which is basically a two-way race between Peggy and Sarmite Bulte (a useless Liberal). It’s one of the only Toronto ridings that stands a chance of being something other than Liberal, and I’m sick and tired of sending Liberals to Ottawa who forget about us completely between election times.
Plus Peggy’s groovy.
Northern Piper, according to the CBC the Green candidate in Nunavut hasn’t been to the riding at all during the campaign. I’d be surprised if he could pull it out in such circumstances, but perhaps it is a riding to focus on next time.
I am a card-carrying Green Party member, but even I can’t support them this time around: Jim and his gang of crookes have driven too much talent out of the party. I’ve been calling for a Conservative minority since December, because (a) they can’t do much fascist baby-killing with the rest of them in opposition; they will have the most success with decentralization-type stuff (by working with the Bloq) (b) I think each of the other parties will be better united in opposition than any one would be in power, and © it will give the Libs a much-needed chance to clean house. I’m okay with Harper but I am quite worried about his cabinet, though: all those Harris Tories give me the heebie-jeebies. I had a nightmare about Jim Flaherty the other day.
I’m with Frank on the length of the coalition: 18-24 months.
As a Yank, I’ll refrain from posting numbers, which would be just a guess anyway.
Now, as a conservative, I’d love to see a Canadian govenment that wanted to shake things up, But I also suspect a Conservative government that tried to do so would last as long as Joe Clark’s first regime.
My sense is, Canadians don’t want an actual Conservative government. They LIKE the benefits and services and atmosphere a Liberal government typically provides. And so, they’ll elect a new Conservative government, but they’ll keep it in place only so long as the Conservatives act like non-corrupt Liberals.
Envy is one of the seven deadly sins, and I do try to refrain from feeling such.
Easy to do, when I look at Canada.
You have a lovely country, but you also have some problems I wouldn’t wish to see here.
I definitely agree. Especially since the two conservative parties merged into one: I think more Canadians are more sympathetic with the one that got eaten (ie the more socially progressive one), and so are more likely to have mixed feelings about the socially conservative ones that remain.
I’m adding my prediction after having only read the OP.
Liberals: 77, Conservatives: 142, NDP: 29, Bloc: 60
Usually a Liberal supporter, I’m voting Conservative because
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The message must be clearly delivered that antics like the sponsorship scancal cannot be rewarded,
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There is enough of the Conservative platform I am comfortable with (scrap the gun registry boondogle, reduce GST (no way that’ll be increased thereafter!), accountability act, etc)
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A Conservative minority would not be able to step backwards on social policy, esp. public-only health care, gay marriage, abortion, etc.
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Canada/US relations. While not completely agreeing with David Wilkins “chest-thumping” complaints, it does appear Martin is taking too strong a stance against the US. The missle program was a no brainer - Martin should have agreed as he originally said he would (NDP influence?). With Harper as PM, at least there can be better faith dialog on US/Canada issues.
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Yes, it is time for change. An opposition party is best when it has recently been in power - more alive to the realities of governing, eager to get back on the other side of the floor.
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Jeff Watson, my local Conservative candiate is the incumbent, and while I admire his Liberal opponent Susan Whelan, Jeff is as competent a local rep as she is and will do well as part of a minority gov’t.
Off to the polls… (maybe after I read a few more posts in this thread.)
Liberal – 90, Conservative – 141, Bloc Quebecois – 56, New Democratic Party – 21,
I’m voting Conservative for the first time. I’m giving them a test drive but we’ll see what the next few years bring.
OK - I’ll bite:
Conservative - 139
Liberal - 70
Bloc - 64
NDP - 34
Voted NDP, but I’d do almost anything to keep the Conservatives out. I don’t have the same optimism that they won’t do horribly socially conservative things, and while I don’t like the Liberals much, they’re better than that.
Here’s my prediction:
Conservatives: 123
Liberals: 100
NDP: 28
Bloc: 58
Crap -missed one…
I meant to throw one to Green.
My prediction:
Con 147
Lib 66
Bloc 59
NDP 35
Independent 1
I was going to eat my ballot, but I hear now that that’s illegal, so I may just end up voting Conservative. Although, that business with the parties getting $X funding for each vote bugs me, so I may not vote for anyone.
I’ll predict that the Bloc does well in Quebec. Beyond that, I don’t know.
I really posted to pose a question: Is it my imagination or are the swings in Canadian party power several orders of magnitude more extreme than in the US? I thought the Conservatives went from the party in power to not even leading the opposition in a fairly short time, and now the pendulum is swinging back. Compared to these swings, what we’ve seen in the US is pretty tame. Is this true and if so, what would be the reason for it? Also for the Canadian posters, when deciding who to vote for, do you base your vote on who would best represent your riding or do you vote on who you would rather have as PM?