Canadian Election: Rubber Hits the Road Time: Predictions

In My Humble Opinion
1

Right, folks. We’ve been talking about the election for a month now, over on this thread: The Canadian Election.

Now, with the actual vote just two days away, time to put down your predictions. Who’s it gonna be, and by how much? Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen! Les jeux sont faits, mesdames et messieurs! Jacta alea est!

First, here’s the seat distribution, garnered from the Elections Canada web-site:

N&L: 7

PEI: 4

NS: 11

NB: 10

Que: 75

Ont: 106

Man: 14

Sask: 14

Alta: 28

BC: 36

Yu: 1

NWT: 1

Nun: 1

Total: 308

My prediction: I think that Harper & Co. peaked too soon. The middle-of-the-road folks in Ontario may have been angry with the Grits, but once they started looking at the New Tories™, listened to Harper musing about a majority, and heard King Ralph talk about his secret secret plans to challenge the Canada Health Act two days after the election, they’ve started to pull back. I think the Tories will make substantial inroads in Ontario, however, enough that Martin won’t get a majority. The Bloc’s going to do really well in Quebec, and the NDP will pick up some new seats, because I think some of the three-way splits in some close ridings will favour them this time.

So here’s Piper’s Prediction:

Liberals: 112

Conservatives: 110

Bloc Québécois: 62

New Democrats: 23

Independent: 1
(I’m going out on a limb with the independent call, but I think one of the Saskatchewan ridings may be interesting.)

2

To be honest I can’t improve on that prediction. Maybe 115-107 for the Liberals. I think we might see a Green candidate win a BC riding.

What will be interesting is to see how the Conservatives react to just barely losing. Historically, the Reform-Alliance response to any setback has been “Oh my God, we need a new leader! We need to rename the party!” whereas the old PC party regulars would probably understand that cutting the Liberals to a minority is a huge, huge victory, one that could lead to a majority win in the next election (which could come within a year.) Will cooler heads prevail?

3

Are you thinking Spencer, or Pankiw? I don’t live in Saskatoon-Humboldt, being a bit south of 8th St., but the farm is in Pankiw country, and so is my job. I really am not sure what’s going to happen there, but I would be somewhat surprised if Dr. Jim took the seat. I did read an article recently where Nettie Wiebe, the NDP candidate, said that at the doorstep it seemed Pankiw was more serious opposition than the official Tory (one Brad Trost), but I dunno. In my unscientific survey of election sign positioning, it seems to me that it’s vanishingly rare to see a Pankiw sign on someone’s lawn, in spite of the fact that he has the things up all over the place on public property. Trost signs aren’t that uncommon on lawns at all. This suggests to me that Pankiw doesn’t have much support amongst the urban conservatives in the riding. It does seem likely that he has higher support in the rural parts of the riding, but this probably won’t be enough for two reasons - one, there’s just too much of Saskatoon in the riding to win on the strength of the rural vote alone, and two, the NDP candidate is Nettie Wiebe, former president of the NFU, and she’s going to score some rural votes as well.

My prediction for that riding would be NDP coming up the middle on a split conservative vote, which Pankiw polling in second ahead of the Tory, and the Liberal dead last, but I wouldn’t be shocked to be proven wrong.

I know nothing about Spencer’s riding in Regina, and can’t comment on his chances.

I won’t comment on the general election, except to say that I’m less confident than usual in the reliability of pollsters’ predictions this time round. I think we may be surprised Monday night.

4

According to today’s paper, polls right now show the Conservatives with 99, the liberals with 97, the NDP with 18, the Bloc with 53, and there are 50 that are too close to call.

So we could wind up with anything from 149 C, 97 Lib, to 147 lib 99 C. More likely, the areas that are too close to call will break along the current trend lines, which would mean the PCs and Libs will tie each other at somewhere around 115-120, with the rest going to the Bloc and NDP.

Doesn’t seem likely that either party will get a majority, or even a minority big enough to survive with only minor support from other parties.

5

In particular, a really close split will result in the Bloc having the balance of power, and the NDP left out in the cold. I can’t say I’m particularly overjoyed at the prospect of a party whose primary platform item is the destruction of the country being in the driver’s seat.

6

There’s also the potential for an independent the the Surrey North riding in BC. The popular Conservative incumbent was overthrown in the nominations and is running as an independent. There was a poll a couple of weeks ago showing him winning in a landslide, but as we all know a lot can change in two weeks. Monday’s going to be an interesting night.

7

i’ve spent a couple days working out this riding by riding projection, and i guess here is as good a place as any to share it.

(…and obviously i do not have inside info for every riding, so i started with the list compiled by the election prediction project. i then made calls in the ridings they felt were “too close” & changed calls in a number of others, based sometimes on info from contacts in various ridings, often on complete wild ass guesses, and for a dozen or so ridings on coin flips. the margin error for this projection is therefore roughly comparable with that of your local newspaper’s latest guess.)
territories:

yukon: ndp
nwt: lib
nunavut: lib

lib 2 ndp 1

bc:

Vancouver Centre: ndp
Vancouver East: ndp
Vancouver Kingsway: lib
Vancouver Quadra: lib
Vancouver South: ndp
Burnaby-Douglas: ndp
Burnaby-New Westminster: lib
New Westminster-Coquitlam: lib
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam: ndp
North Vancouver: con
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast: con
Delta-Richmond East: con
Fleetwood-Port Kells: con
Newton-North Delta: con
Richmond: con
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale: con
Surrey North: ndp
Abbotsford: con
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon: con
Dewdney-Alouette: con
Langley: con
Cariboo-Prince George:con
Kamloops-Thompson: con
Kelowna: con
Kootenay-Columbia: con
North Okanagan-Shuswap: con
Okanagan-Coquihalla: con
Prince George-Peace River: con
Skeena-Bulkley Valley: con
Southern Interior: con
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca: ndp
Nanaimo-Alberni: ndp
Nanaimo-Cowichan: ndp
Saanich-Gulf Islands: con
Vancouver Island North: ndp
Victoria:ndp

lib 4 ndp 11 con 21

alberta:

Calgary East: con
Calgary North Centre: con
Calgary Northeast: con
Calgary-Nose Hill: con
Calgary South Centre: con
Calgary Southeast: con
Calgary Southwest: con
Calgary West: con
Edmonton-Beaumont: lib
Edmonton Centre: con
Edmonton East: con
Edmonton-Leduc: con
Edmonton-St.Albert: con
Edmonton-Sherwood Park: con
Edmonton-Spruce Grove: con
Edmonton-Strathcona: ndp
Athabasca: con
Crowfoot: con
Lethbridge: con
Macleod: con
Medicine Hat: con
Peace River: con
Red Deer: con
Vegreville-Wainwright: con
Westlock-St.Paul: con
Wetaskiwin: con
Wild Rose: con
Yellowhead: con
ndp 1 lib 1 con 26

saskatchewan:

Battlefords-Lloydminster: con
Blackstrap: con
Churchill River: ndp
Cypress Hills-Grasslands: con
Palliser: ndp
Prince Albert: con
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre: con
Regina-Qu’Appelle: ndp
Saskatoon-Humboldt: ndp
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar: ndp
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin: con
Souris-Moose Mountain: con
Wascana: lib
Yorkton-Melville: con

lib 1 ndp 5 con 8

manitoba:

Charleswood-St.James: lib
Elmwood-Transcona: ndp
Kildonan-St.Paul: ndp
Saint Boniface: lib
Winnipeg Centre: ndp
Winnipeg North: ndp
Winnipeg South: lib
Winnipeg South Centre: lib
Brandon-Souris: con
Churchill: ndp
Dauphin-Swan River: con
Portage-Lisgar: con
Provencher: con
Selkirk-Interlake: ndp

ndp 6 con 4 lib 4

ontario:

Beaches-East York: ndp
Davenport: ndp
Don Valley East: lib
Don Valley West: lib
Eglinton-Lawrence: lib
Etobicoke Centre: lib
Etobicoke-Lakeshore: lib
Etobicoke North: lib
Parkdale-High Park: ndp
St.Paul’s: lib
Scarborough-Agincourt: lib
Scarborough Centre: lib
Scarborough-Guildwood: lib
Scarborough-Rouge River: lib
Scarborough Southwest: lib
Toronto Centre: ndp
Toronto-Danforth: ndp
Trinity-Spadina: ndp
Willowdale: lib
York Centre: lib
York South-Weston: lib
York West: lib
Ajax-Pickering: lib
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale: con
Bramalea-Gore-Malton: lib
Brampton-Springdale: con
Brampton West: con
Burlington: con
Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge: con
Dufferin-Caledon: con
Halton: con
Hamilton Centre: ndp
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: ndp
Hamilton Mountain: ndp
Markham-Unionville: lib
Mississauga-Brampton South: lib
Mississauga East-Cooksville: lib
Mississauga-Erindale: lib
Mississauga South: con
Mississauga-Streetsville: con
Newmarket-Aurora: con
Niagara Falls: con
Niagara West-Glanbrook: con
Oak Ridges-Markham: con
Oakville: con
Oshawa: ndp
Pickering-Scarborough East: lib
Richmond Hill: lib
St.Catharines: lib
Thornhill: lib
Vaughan: lib
Welland: lib
Whitby-Oshawa: con
York-Simcoe: con
Carleton-Lanark: con
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell: con
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock: con
Kingston and the Islands: lib
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington: con
Leeds-Grenville: con
Nepean-Carleton: lib
Northumberland-Quinte West: con
Ottawa Centre: ndp
Ottawa-Orleans: con
Ottawa South: ndp
Ottawa-Vanier: lib
Ottawa West-Nepean: lib
Peterborough: lib
Prince Edward-Hastings: lib
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke: con
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry: lib
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing: lib
Kenora: lib
Nickel Belt: lib
Nipissing-Timiskaming: lib
Parry Sound-Muskoka: lib
Sault Ste.Marie: ndp
Sudbury: lib
Thunder Bay-Rainy River: con
Thunder Bay-Superior North: lib
Timmins-James Bay: con
Cambridge: con
Chatham-Kent-Essex: lib
Elgin-Middlesex-London: lib
Essex: con
Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound: con
Guelph: lib
Haldimand-Norfolk: lib
Brant: lib
Huron-Bruce: lib
Kitchener Centre: ndp
Kitchener-Conestoga: lib
Kitchener-Waterloo: lib
London-Fanshawe: ndp
London North Centre: ndp
London West: lib
Middlesex-Kent-Lambton: lib
Oxford: con
Perth-Wellington: con
Sarnia-Lambton: lib
Barrie: lib
Simcoe North: lib
Simcoe-Grey: con
Wellington-Halton Hills: con
Windsor-Tecumseh: ndp
Windsor West: ndp

lib 55 ndp 18 con 33
quebec:

Ahuntsic: lib
Alfred-Pellan: lib
Bourassa: lib
Hochelaga: bloc
Honore-Mercier: lib
Jeanne-Le Ber: lib
Lac-Saint-Louis: lib
La Pointe-de-l’Ile: lib
LaSalle-Emard: lib
Laurier: bloc
Laval: bloc
Laval-Les Iles: lib
Marc-Aurele-Fortin: bloc
Mount Royal: lib
Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine : lib
Outremont: bloc
Papineau: lib
Pierrefonds-Dollard: lib
Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie: bloc
Saint-Laurent-Cartierville: lib
Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel: lib
Westmount-Ville-Marie: lib
Argenteuil-Mirabel: bloc
Beauport: bloc
Berthier-Maskinonge: bloc
Charlesbourg: bloc
Charlevoix-Montmorency: bloc
Gatineau: lib
Hull-Aylmer: lib
Louis-Hebert: bloc
Louis-Saint-Laurent: bloc
Pontiac: lib
Portneuf: bloc
Quebec: bloc
Repentigny: bloc
Riviere-des-Mille-Iles: bloc
Saint-Maurice-Champlain: bloc
Terrebonne-Blainville: bloc
Trois-Rivieres: bloc
Vaudreuil-Soulanges: bloc
Beauce: lib
Beauharnois-Salaberry: bloc
Brome-Missisquoi: lib
Brossard-La Prairie: bloc
Chambly-Borduas: bloc
Chateauguay-Saint-Constant: bloc
Compton-Stanstead: bloc
Drummond: bloc
Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine: lib
Levis-Bellechasse: bloc
Longueuil: bloc
Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere: bloc
Matapedia-Matane: bloc
Megantic-L’Erable: bloc
Richelieu: bloc
Richmond-Arthabaska: bloc
Rimouski-Temiscouata: bloc
Riviere-du-Loup-Montmagny: bloc
Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert: bloc
Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot: bloc
Saint-Jean: bloc
Saint-Lambert: bloc
Shefford: bloc
Sherbrooke: bloc
Vercheres-Les Patriotes: bloc
Abitibi-Temiscamingue: bloc
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: bloc
Joliette: bloc
Jonquiere-Alma: bloc
Laurentides-Labelle: bloc
Manicouagan: bloc
Montcalm: bloc
Nunavik-Eeyou: bloc
Riviere-du-Nord: bloc
Roberval: bloc

lib 22 bloc 53

new brunswick:

Acadie-Bathurst: ndp
Beauséjour: lib
Fredericton: lib
Fundy: con
Madawaska-Restigouche: lib
Miramichi: lib
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe: lib
St.Croix-Belleisle: con
Saint John: lib
Tobique-Mactaqua: lib

ndp 1 con 2 lib 7

nova scotia:

Cape Breton-Canso: lib
Central Nova: con
Dartmouth-Cole Harbour: ndp
Halifax: ndp
Halifax West: ndp
Kings-Hants: lib
North Nova: con
Sackville-Eastern Shore: ndp
South Shore-St.Margaret’s: ndp
Sydney-Victoria: ndp
West Nova: lib

ndp 6 lib 3 con 2
prince edward island:

Cardigan: lib
Charlottetown: lib
Egmont: lib
Malpeque: lib

lib 4

newfoundland & labrador:

Avalon: lib
Bonavista-Exploits: lib
Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte: ndp
Labrador: con
Random-Burin-St.George’s: ndp
St.John’s North: con
St.John’s South: con

lib 2 ndp 2 con 3

totals:

bloc 53 con 99 lib 105 ndp 51

8

I have a feeling that though the Conservatives are neck and neck in the polls, when voterrs go to the ballot boxes there will be a lot that have a change of heart and write Liberal down. I also think that the majoirty of undecideds will go Liberal when all is said and done, so I predict that the Liberals will win about 135 seats, with the NDP eeking out enough to make up the difference in a minority government. Of course I could be quite wrong about that.

I think the key here will lie in getting a lot of the people that were not planning on voting out to the polls. Whomever wins the most seats in what is bound to be a minoirty government will probably have them to thank for it.

If the turn out is under 60% as predicted, I think it would be sad no matter who wins.

9

fubar, wow what a detailed prediction. I moved from Vancouver…actually North Van last fall and I think you are right about most of Vancouver. I think Thunder Bay -Superior North will not go Liberal although the incumbant has held the seat for quite a while, I think people are really not interested in him. It may go NDP. But I think the Thunder Bay Rainy River may go Liberal as the former mayor is running, and he was pretty popular. Of course, I havent seen recent polls, I have a hard time reading the local “newspaper”. Most Fear Factor challenges are more appetizing than reading that rag.

I voted in the advance polls, and although I would not vote any differently tomorrow, I wish I had waited. You know, saved it for that magical day. It should be very interesting.

10

Not sure which one you’re referring to, but I am interested to see how Grant Devine does running as an Independent in Souris-Moose Mountain. For those who may not know, Grant Devine was the Premier in Saskatchewan from 1982 to 1991 leading the Conservative Party. In the years since then, several Conservative MLAs (this didn’t include Devine) were prosecuted for their activities during this time.

11

Oh I forgot my numbers.
While not as detailed as fubar’s predictions I am thinking roughly

115-120 Liberal
105-110 New Conservative

Slim Liberal minority government and Paul Martin frantically trying to clutch power reigns.

About 50-55 Bloc
25 NDP
1 Green
1or 2 independents?

I know the numbers don’t fully ad up but thats my rough estimate.

12

I’ll just post my numbers from the GD thread.

Liberals-115
Conservatives-114
NDP-28
BQ-51.

I’m now having second thoughts about the low-ball BQ number, I think it’s going to be closer to 60 seats but I’ll stick with my original guess.

13

I think Kid-A’s numbers are closest.

I don’t think the NDP are going to pick up 50 seats. They’ll be lucky to get half of that.

14

Hey fubar tabarnac, how’re you making that decision for the Nepean-Carleton riding? The election predicion site says it’s going to go Conservative, and my boyfriend and his mother are agonizing over whether to vote Liberal in the hopes that the Conservatives don’t have a lock or go with their consciences and vote NDP. I got no sympathy here, I gotta vote for Lurch in November… but I’m interested in what you think if you’re not just guessing.

15

That’s the one I meant - I was rushing to get somewhere so didn’t have time to fill out my post.

Souris-Moose Mountain is one of the safest conservative ridings in Saskatchewan, and contains the provincial riding of Estevan, which was Devine’s own riding throughout the time he was Premier. He was always personally very popular there. I think it’s likely that the old PCs will support him, even if they’re now nominally Conservative federally, and I think at least some of the old Reform-Alliance supporters may be upset about the national party executive not letting them choose their own candidate - not very “grassroots”. So if ever an independent can get elected, I think Devine’s got a shot at it - that, or he’ll split the conservative vote enought that one of the other parties will take the riding. (The Liberals took it in 1993 due to the PC-Reform vote split).

16

Regina-Lumsden is a toss-up. Until the last election, it was considered a safe NDP seat. Then Spencer knocked off Solomon by just over 100 votes. Spencer is running again as an Independent, opposed to same-sex marriage. Will he draw enough votes from the Conservative candidate for the NDP to take it back? I would think there’s a good chance of that happening. Gossip is that all three of the major parties think that the riding is “in play.”

17

I agree. *fubar, I think you’ve been a bit too generous on that part of the prediction.

18

so since i just noticed that my guest membership expires today, i leave you with my methodology for the projection:

first i gave the ndp every seat they will likely come within ten points of winning. about 60 ridings. then i took a closer look at those, giving the libs & cons (at about 2-1) the dozen & a half longest shots. (referring back to epp for guidance as to which for which)

then i quickly ran through quebec, deferring to epp for all but four ridings, from which i have contacts telling me that they are too close to call. so i called them the other way because i could.

next i gave alberta to the cons, with the exception of the one each ndp & lib strongest points in the province. because what the hell, it’s no fun predicting a sweep.

so then i started with bc and working east, filled in the liberals strongest concetrations of strength, then from nfld back west i plugged in the cons to the rest of the ridings.

i went back over the list again tinkering here and there,
(like giving kitchener centre, surrey north & humber-st barbe-baie verte to the ndp. hey, stranger things have happened.)

finally, i noted about a dozen ridings that did not match the epp, and that i don’t have any good info on, flipping a coin to decide (heads it stays the way i put it, tails it reverts to epp’s call)
n.b. – the election prediction project has updated at least once since i compiled my list, changing at least half a dozen ridings (that i’ve noticed) and calling the formerly “too close” races. their final? count has 122 liberals, 104 cons, 29 ndp, 52 bloc and 1 independant.

i still don’t think that the conservatives will break 100, and the liberal ceiling is more like 115… the ndp will benefit from that situation. popular vote will be in the neighbouhood of 33% liberal, 28% conservative, and 24% ndp, with turnout in the high sixties.

19

of course i have. i’m a partisan. and i’m optimistic. but i’m no more out of line than anyone projecting that the conservatives will get 115 or more seats.

20

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