Battleground looks to be Calgary. NDP is strong in Edmonton, UCP is strong in the rural areas.
Notley polls well with women and young folks; Smith polls well with men, especially over 55. Notley also is polling well with those with post-secondary degrees.
Article with a series of bullet points over the past few days:
I predict DeSantis’ number one fan Lady Horsepaste is our next premier despite there being no end to her awfulness. If I’m right then the party options open to us for the next election will be Syncrude or Suncor. Our schools will fail. Our health care system will fail. We’ll be a decade in undoing the wall-to-wall stupid.
But at least Smith will put a stop to those teachers in Red Deer who are providing litter boxes to their students who identify as cats.
< sarcasm >
Yes, a member of Smith’s party came up with this little nugget of bullshit on the campaign trail. She could not even be imaginative enough to make up her own BS story - had to steal it from somewhere in the USA.)
Really good analysis by Calgary’s former mayor Naheed Nenshi. Fair criticism of both parties and their records in power. But bottom line:
So for many Albertans, this election comes down to two issues: competence and trust. Notley wins cleanly on both.
Conservatives win a small but reasonably comfortable majority. Rich people, farmers & seniors show up to vote. Youth is quite unreliable to show up.
87 seats: current proportion is 60 Conservative, 23 NDP, 2 Independent, 2 vacant. The two independents are former conservatives, who were too loony toons even for the conservative party, so they were tossed at least for a time.
Edmonton and part of Calgary will go NDP.
My prediction is a slightly reduced majority for the Conservatives;
Con 54
NDP 33
Most of rural Alberta buys into the myth that the large corporations are their friends and “job creators”, while Rachel Notley and the NDP are completely and fully responsible for the world oil price collapse in 2008. Notley assumed office in March of 2008, and world oil prices went from a July 2008 high of $147 USD/bbl to a December 2008 low of $32 USD/bbl.
And for many in Alberta, this was ENTIRELY Rachel Notley and the NDP’s fault. They know this with a religious conviction.
Notley and the NDP were in power in Alberta from 2015-2019.
Ah yes, messed my dates up - I stand corrected.
So many folks I know in Alberta do blame Notley for the oil price crash though.
And I know of companies who laid off staff in 2018 who directly blamed the NDP for the layoffs.
I hope Alberta’s election’s going well where they could have balanced reporting and normal political conferences. The US could take notes about how to do it right.
There is lots of crazy here. I read an article from The Western Standard this morning. This is a conservative commentary site. Full of crazy in the comments section. Anti-vax, conspiracy stuff. World Economic Forum etc.
I’m hoping for a conservative majority, but not making any predictions.
For me, Notley is disqualified purely on energy grounds. Her plan for Alberta is nuts, and will impoverish the province. She thinks we can get to net zero energy by 2035. We cannot. She’ll wreck the province trying. No other issue is as important.
Friend, I couldn’t imagine a bigger waste of time then any targeted NDP voting pitch to you.
What a strange, personal criticism. I didn’t know we were judging each other by our susceptibility to the other side’s propaganda.
Looks like my riding in Calgary is going to go NDP. I honestly think they did a good job last run. As others have said though, they were always going to be the villians with the conservative crowd. Im not a huge fan because I think they are a little dogmatic and naive, but thats far better than the crazy that the UCP is.
Spoke to a coworker this morning who was supportive of NDP last run but felt they raised taxes too much so is voting Conservative. I think a lot of Albertans will see this as about simple issues of lower taxes and pro business, and vote for them based on that.
I see the UCP under Smith as just too crazy. I never liked Jason Kenney, always thought of him as a right wing dogmatic pundit like Ezra Levant. I do think he moderated and adapted somewhat. He certainly did not go crazy anti vax conspiracy and acted as a moderating force in the UCP. That they voted him out for a nut like Smith just blows my mind.
Sam, I don’t understand the comment either, seems irrelevant. I appreciate you sharing your condenced take on what is the key issue for you.
You just now offered your opinion on how unlikely it’d be for you to support Notley.
C’mon, don’t be surprised on how not shocked I am. Anyone with a speck of social awareness shouldn’t be surprised at your voting intentions here. Were you some NDP supporter during the years before I started here on the SDMB, or something?
What are you saying? That I shouldn’t offer my opinion because everyone knows it already? If so, that’s true for 90% of the people on this board. Or that I should have offered it sooner? Or that I’m not allowed to have one?
This is just bizarre. And inappropriate.
I predict with great confidence, that it will be a majority government. I don’t see a third party in Alberta (or independent MLA’s) holding the balance of power.
Typical pattern we see all over the US, too. A young, urban, educated demographic tends liberal. Cranky old white men living in the boonies tend conservative. There are always exceptions, but that seems like a safe bet almost everywhere. 338Canada is projecting a comfortable win and likely majority for the UCP.
OMG tell me about it. Here’s an excerpt (a lot of the comments were anti-doctor and anti-science): “As an ancient philosopher ruminated: who knows my body greater that that body’s owner.”
I’m sure the commenter, as the “owner” of his/her body and given the appropriate tools (including a mirror), could outperform a doctor doing a surgical procedure on him/herself.
All that aside, but for reasons related to that, I truly hope that the NDP wins.