Please, no debates, just your opinion. Do you think Tony Blair will be re-elected?
Maybe. (Hey, I’m not British.)
It’s a tricky one: if there were a viable opposition, I’m sure that he would be out on his arse. Especially if it turns out he knowingly lied to Parliament (he might even have to resign over that).
However, the Tories are in such a 2&8 that I am fairly sure he’ll be returned to power, but with a massively reduced majority.
IMHO it’s highly unlikely that the Labour Party will lose the next General Election, especially as the Conservative Party is extremely weak and the Liberal Democrats insufficiently developed to replace them as official opposition, let alone the government party. That may change during the next ten years but not the next three.
Don’t forget, though, that we don’t have presidential elections, so Blair won’t be elected directly as Prime Minister (only as an MP). There remains a possibility that he may be replaced as party leader by Gordon Brown between now and the next election, which must take place on or before 1 June 2006. Personally I expect him to survive and to be PM after that date.
Yes.
There are no credible, sizeable opposition parties or sufficiently charismatic opposition figureheads.
I think at present it looks very likely.
Lots of things can happen though, if we were hit by a serious terrorist incident that could be directly sourced back to recent military actions he could look shaky, depending upon the way it played out.
There are bound to be other crises, some of whose roots are only starting to grow right now.
The most likely problem he will have is over further integration with Europe.
Both the current administration and the main opposition party have splits within them and both have been putting off really setting out their policies but this will have to be dealt with at some point.
I think Euro issues are the most likely thing that will see Tony Blair replaced as party leader, I’d imagine that the scenario would be,
Election, Tony still in power, Tony brings on some very controversial Euro policies up for parliamentary scrutiny and attempt to pass some very divisive legislation(in political party terms).
This would be as early on in his next term as possible to allow things more time to settle before the following election.
There are things happening in the EU regardless of the UK own timetable, such as expension of the EU to include Poland, Slovakia and around eight or nine others.
These things may well force the EU agenda in the UK and prevent Blair from choosing the most opportune moment to engage the public with them.
During this time there would be some calls for a public referendum over say joining the Euro currency, if public opinion is too close to call then this will not happen and attempts might be made to push it through, or at least make a concrete comittal to it.
This is the time I’d expect Tony Blair to be challenged for the leadership.
I think this time he should not have too much trouble getting re-elected, but after that things look very much more uncertain.
The only thing is, the main opposition is in dire trouble, the average age of it’s party membership is over 60 and until recently was increasing, it’s leadership does not seem to have any ideas of its own, or rather the ground that they covered has been cut from under them by Tony Blair many of whose policies seem very similar.
The response by the opposition is to move further away from the middle ground of UK politics which appeals even less to the younger electorate.
It’s more a case of the opposition giving Tony Blair the next election by simply not appearing to be viable.
I’d say it is highly likely. I’d also say that given his track record and the current state of education, healthcare and public services in general that he doesn’t deserve it.
However, the opposition seems to be entirely incapable of putting together anything which even remotely resembles a coherent policy so Blair will most likely win by default.
Bring back Maggie 
Blair looks a lot more vulnerable now than he did a couple of months ago … but right now, I wouldn’t bet against him. If he does go, I think it’d be more likely to be due to internal party machinations, rather than anything the Opposition can muster against him.
[aside] I am fairly impressed that all 6 UK respondents are in pretty much total agreement with each other, despite a (presumably) wide political spectrum. [/aside]
All the indications as of now are that Labour will be re-elected with a lower majority on the lowest turn-out in history.
Yeah, similar mood of resignation from all respondents.