Bush does not, after all, have rising support among black voters

[rjung]

In a related vein, a Republican pollster has found that the more minorities who vote, the harder Bush will get spanked:

Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%.

As Fabrizio blandly puts it, “It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President’s campaign.” More accurately, if Fabrizio is right — that Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states — Kerry is a sure winner on November 2.

It’d explain why the Republicans have been very busy intimidating voters in minority neighborhoods, at least.

[BrainGlutton]

@John Mace

Well, Clarence Page apparently believes the higher poll data, and offers this reasoning:

Well, like I said: Any black who votes Republican must be either really, really making it, or really, really socially conservative. Or else, under the delusion that the party of George W. Bush, Jesse Helms and the late Strom Thurmond is still the party of Abraham Lincoln.

[Cliffy]

@Mr. Moto

So your defense of this position, BrainGlutton, is to trot out still more stereotypes?

If you can actually point to a stereotype in the post immediately above yours, I’ll eat my hat.

I’m not worried.

–Cliffy

[Cliffy]

@Munch

Additionally, it’s from a blog titled “The Emerging Democratic MajorityWebLog - Donkey Rising”! Are you honestly putting this forward as a legitimate source?!?

A source can’t be accurate merely because it has a preference? If Donkey Rising is to be an effective tool to accomplish its stated goals, then it has to be just accurate about the bad news than about the good. That’s a lesson those of us who live in the reality-based universe need to understand at a young age.

–Cliffy

[John_Mace]

@BrainGlutton

Well, like I said: Any black who votes Republican must be either really, really making it, or really, really socially conservative. Or else, under the delusion that the party of George W. Bush, Jesse Helms and the late Strom Thurmond is still the party of Abraham Lincoln.

That statement is so obviously wrong on the face of it, that I can only take it as sarcastic hyperbole. I hope you didn’t think it would be received as anything other than that.

[UrbanChic]

@BrainGlutton

Well, like I said: Any black who votes Republican must be either really, really making it, or really, really socially conservative. Or else, under the delusion that the party of George W. Bush, Jesse Helms and the late Strom Thurmond is still the party of Abraham Lincoln.

Why can’t the same be said for any person voting for Bush, then?

I’m black and I’m most probably voting for Bush.

[Munch]

@Cliffy

A source can’t be accurate merely because it has a preference? If Donkey Rising is to be an effective tool to accomplish its stated goals, then it has to be just accurate about the bad news than about the good. That’s a lesson those of us who live in the reality-based universe need to understand at a young age.

–Cliffy

Yes, but this doesn’t appear to be “merely” a preference. Sorry, but this Kerry supporter doesn’t buy it. There are enough subjects out there with actual meat on them then for us to waste time jumping all over anything and everything even resembling a cogent point in favor of Kerry. Let’s raise the level of discourse, not dilute it.

[Lochdale]

I’m not black and I want to avoid any notion that I am trying to speak for an entire racial/social/ethnic group but I do believe that, overall, blacks in the United States would be better off “splitting” their vote in a meaningful manner. It appears to me that the Republicans ignore blacks and the Democrats take them for granted. Perhaps Brigham Young had it right when he said that half of the Mormons should vote Republican and half should vote Democratic so neither can take us for granted.

As an aside, and perhaps to dilute a little tension over this election, I voted for the first time as a new US citizen. I went with a very liberal friend of mine (moveon.org is a sell-out for this fellow) to vote absentee here in Chicago. I wanted to make sure I could vote as I would be travelling on Tuesday. Illinois allows you to vote absentee right then and there so you don’t have to take the ballots with you. I was delayed as I was a new citizen and wasn’t on past rolls. I spoke to several election judges and was finally introduced to the supervisor. She was sitting with a police officer at the top table. We managed to get everything sorted out and off I went. Just as I was about to leave though, my friend walked past (he had voted) and said “don’t let him vote, he’s just another vote for that idiot Bush”. Awkard silence all round. I went and voted (what a ridiculous mechanical system) and came back and dropped my ballot in the voting box. As I was about to leave the police officer called me back over to the voting table. He shook my hand and then said “you just voted in your first election, you are a real citizen now” and then he, and severl election workers applauded! It was a very touching moment for me and it really made my day. If for no other reason than that, I will always remember this election fondly.