Bush does not, after all, have rising support among black voters

Some Dopers in this forum have asserted – without providing cites – that Bush’s support level is rising among black voters, at least compared to what it was in 2000. This, apparently, is not true. From http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/:

Anyone care to contradict this?

Is not a black vote for Bush like a cow voting for Ronald McDonald?

Well that isn’t the least bit condescending.

I don’t see how that proves your point. It offers polls from “various polling sources”, some of which contradict your point by showing higher numbers now than in 2000, and Belcher’s numbers are only from battleground states (which is exactly one of the reasons they *are * battleground states).

Additionally, it’s from a blog titled “The Emerging Democratic MajorityWebLog - Donkey Rising”! Are you honestly putting this forward as a legitimate source?!?

Finally, if it’s true that “Some Dopers in this forum have asserted”, then why not present this information in THOSE threads? Did we really need Election Thread #12,634?

Poll: Bush Doubles Support Among Blacks

This is the poll in question. Why is it any better or any worse than any other poll?

I think the answer is in the OP:

*1. A July poll of black RVs by BET/CBS News had Bush’s support at 10 percent.

  1. Bush’s black support in the last week of WP/ABC tracking polls has been averaging 9 percent.

  2. Bush’s average black support in the last four Pew polls has been 9 percent.

  3. Bush’s average black support in the last week of national Zogby tracking polls has been 8 percent.

  4. Bush’s support among black RVs averaged only 7 percent in three October Gallup polls.*

From what I’ve read, apparently Kerry’s biggest challenge would be to turn out the black vote this year, not to choose him over Bush.

For whatever individual observation is worth:

I work in a large urban school, and more than half of my students are black. When we conducted an informal poll, only one black student said he would vote for Bush if he were of voting age. His classmates stared at him in stunned amazement. One of them blurted out, “I ain’t NEVER heard a black person say they’d vote for Bush before.”

Pet peeve of mine, when people take analogies to mean that they exactly resemble the thing being analogized. They are similar insofar as it is voting against their own interests.

And how, praytell, would you know what those interests are?

You’re predicting an individual’s behavior based on his racial profile. Please explain, rfgdxm or Blalron, why this isn’t racism?

Well no shit? Then maybe you can explain why black voters have monolitihic interests in Blalronville? And why you can presume to speak for what their interests obviously are?

It is not racism to call attention to two fairly obvious facts:

  1. Most African-Americans – roughly two-thirds – are poor. Working poor, or desperately poor.

  2. The economic interests of poor people are not well served by the Bush Administration.

So your defense of this position, BrainGlutton, is to trot out still more stereotypes?

That’s pretty messed up.

Socioeconomic facts are not stereotypes.

BrainGlutton,

Politicians live and die as the result of polling data. Their every move is dictated by this information. Senator Kerry has been touring a lot of black churches lately. Maybe you have better polling data. Don’t know. Time will tell.

Ah, but your point number two is surely just your opinion, and is a common stereotype of Republicans.

As is your assumption that all black voters vote the same way, all of the time.

Why wouldn’t black voters split their votes between the Republicans and Democrats? Every single other identifiable group does so.

Except for the media. And people working at universities. And I think the most recent one I heard was that the internet had a liberal bias so I guess " and except for the people on the internet".

However, it is certainly true that in this particular thread, the internet, the media, and universities were not accused of a bias. So, if we confine ourselves to this thread, I’ve just brought up a great big ol’ strawman.

Let’s hope it doesn’t turn into a real position.

They do split their vote, they just don’t split it evenly – the Dems typically get about 90% of it and that’s no different this year; reread the OP.

What is different this year is a lot more blacks registered and, I expect, much higher turnout on e-day.

Arguing that the Democratic Party has been more favorable to the interests of the poor than the Pubs have been (at least, ever since Harding, Coolidge and Hoover) is not stereotyping, it is an analysis very well grounded in history. For that matter, it is a conclusion the average person almost certainly would draw naturally from the simple research method of not storing one’s head in one’s rectum.

As for the economic status of African-Americans – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African-Americans:

So I don’t see how the well-documented support of African-Americans for the Democratic Party is irrational. Any black who votes Republican must be either really, really making it, or really, really socially conservative.

It’s like the joke: How can you tell how many black Republicans there are in the country? Go to the Republican National Convention and count them.

Well, Clarence Page apparently believes the higher poll data, and offers this reasoning: