This is shaping up to be an election as close as 2000, and the bitterest, hottest election since 1968. Bush’s problem in this election is that Kerry is going to be able to count on the votes of practically all Democrats and practically all liberals and leftists. There’s the “We wuz robbed!” factor – they Dems are still smarting from the abominable outcome of the 2000 election. They’re not just out for victory, they’re out for revenge, and they are going to turn out for Kerry in unprecedented numbers. Nader is in the race but he is not going to play the role he played in 2000. In fact, he might actually steal votes away from Bush!
(See the GD thread I just started: “Nader and Buchanan find common ground?” – http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=261070) Bush, on the other hand, is not going to be able to count on all the conservatives or even all the Republicans.
Some conservatives are fiscal conservatives. They will hate Bush because he has cut taxes, spent like a drunken Bonesman, and racked up the most whopping federal deficit since the Reagan Administration.
Some conservatives are isolationist conservatives. They will hate Bush because he has led us into an avoidable war, and a bloody and expensive post-war quagmire from which there is no obvious way we can extricate ourselves.
Some conservatives are states’-rights decentralists and government minimalists. They will hate Bush because he has only expanded the size and cost and power of the federal government.
Some conservatives are civil libertarians. They hate will Bush because of the PATRIOT Act and the Department of Homeland Security and Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo and . . .
Some conservatives are anti-immigration nativists. They will hate Bush because he has amnestied millions of illegal-alien guestworkers.
Some conservatives are good-government moralists. They will hate Bush because he is a Goddamned stinking liar – even after his supposed conversion to Christ.
Some conservatives are militarists and/or military veterans. They will hate Bush because he is a draft-dodging coward – running against a genuine war hero.
In the final analysis, the only conservative constituencies Bush can really count on are the neoconservative foreign-policy warhawks and the social-religious conservatives. And some of the warhawks are also military veterans, and some of the religious conservatives are also fiscal conservatives, government minimalists, decentralists, isolationists, and/or nativists; Bush’s religiosity might not be enough to tilt the balance.
Bush is toast. May he be burnt toast.