Bush's Speech Tonight: What Didja Think?

I thought his five-point plan was pretty good - as if someone in his administration had listened to Anthony Zinni’s speech the other night, absorbed it, internalized it, and written a new policy based on it.

(Yeah, I know: who are you, and what have you done with the real RTFirefly?)

There’s still one problem, and it’s that we still don’t know how to deal with the basic Sunni/Shiite/Kurd problem, so Bush is still just fobbing it off on them, and calling it ‘done’ at that point.

But seriously:

That was Bush. What did Zinni say? “The Iraqis have to own this problem.” My main gripe is that this speech comes about a year late: the time to begin transferring control of Iraq at the local, municipal level, where problems are concrete, and ideological divisions are fewer, was last April and May. But better late than never, so long as he means it.

I hope this is the case. But in all the stuff that’s been going on lately, what have you heard from the mayor or town council of Karbala or Kut, of Basra or Najaf?

Me either. I’m kinda wondering if all this elected local government stuff is happening almost entirely in Kurd territory, which isn’t really the problem. I guess we’ll find out.

OK, they figured this one out about a month late, after slugging it out with the Iraqis and realizing they’d already alienated the local population, as well as many Iraqis elsewhere in the country. But at least it represents having gotten a clue.

He’s still denying that the abuses were due to more than ‘a few bad apples’. He needs a clue there. And certainly it’s a bit late to be realizing that the infamous Abu Ghraib prison should never have become a U.S. prison anyway.

Also, one major problem with the prison system is how we rounded up civilians nearly at random, and once there, they could be there for months without having a chance to explain (to someone who cared and could do something) that they were just in the wrong place, at the wrong time. We need to be honest with the Iraqi people about what we’ve done wrong, if we’re to play any useful role at all.

He apparently forgot we didn’t go to the UN to get the OK to invade. Oops! Oh yeah: the Iraqis haven’t adopted a timetable. We did.

But finally, we get to the nub of things:

And it’s still: we don’t have a clue as to how to resolve the fundamental problem of coexistence of Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds. So we’re letting the Iraqis ‘own’ that problem: we broke it, we can’t fix it, so here’s the parts, do the best you can, seeya.

Somewhere along the way (though not in that speech) I think I recall Zinni saying we had to at least propose some ways the government of Iraq possibly could be organized. We don’t have to tell them what to do, but if we can’t draw up a single believable solution to the Sunni/Shiite/Kurd problem, then how do we expect them to do it?

So it’s a bit late, and it still isn’t enough. But it’s still the most insightful speech I think GWB has ever given.

I was disapointed. I didn’t hear anything new. I’m still wondering what the command structure for our troops will be after the hand-over of the government. Suppose we decide to make an incursion somewhere, but the Iraqi governement says no. Suppose they want us to make an incursion somewhere and we don’t want to. As long as we have a huge force over there, it’s unclear how much sovereignty they can possibly have. We need a clear phase-out plan for our troops for that to be meaningful.

I lost my breath when he said something to the effect that “if General Abazaid asked for more troops he would get them”.

That sounds a bit like LBJ speaking about General Westmoreland circa 1966, don’t you think? As for me, I would have no problem going back over there, but dammit, if we’re handing over the country to the Iraqis, how does it make any sense to speak of reinforcements?

That’s what has me a bit worried.

I didn’t hear anything new, just a reiteration of goals that had been previously stated.

Despite all the stories running recently with both Republicans and Democrats complaining that there is and hasn’t been any real Iraq plan, Bush chose to basically stick to his usual “stay the course” rah-rah speech. But General Zinni said on 60 minutes last evening that staying the course in Iraq is a bad idea because “…the course is headed over Niagara Falls.”

The number of troops isn’t going to be reduced and may very well be increased if the General’s request it. There wasn’t anything real said about WHO we were going to turn power over to come June 30th, nor what role the Iraqi people would have in determining again, WHO this would be. He talked about Iraq providing their own security but he didn’t say how that was going to happen in such a short period of time. He talked about bringing the UN in but not HOW he was going to make “nice” with the UN after dis’ing and ignoring them for so long. This UN force would be led by the U.S. but there isn’t any date as to how long we will remain there or as the lead of the UN force.

Bush still sounded like a “broken record” who was going to try and shove “democracy” and “freedom” down the throats of the Iraqi’s, whether they like it or not.

Here’s the NY Times take on the speech: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/25/politics/25ASSE.html

Let me see…the population breakdown is about…

Shias…60%

Sunnis…30%

Kurds…10%

Does any see a real free and fair election in that?

Shit! I see Democracy. It’s just wainting to burst out all over.

I really wish that things could go as smoothly as his speech suggests that it might. As much as I would like to see a different President in the White House next January, I want even more a successful and peaceful conclusion to our involvement in Iraq.

But he does seem to have left unanswered the most important questions. That is my major concern.

I am troubled by the seeming contradiction of these statements:

Is this only until June 30th?

Again, after June 30th?

In essence, Airman Doors, my concerns are yours.

He still annoys me in some of the same old ways. He still tries to connect Iraq with 9/11. And the reference to WMD and sending troops to Iraq “to defend our security” were a really poor choice. A good cowboy never tries to ride a dead horse – especially if it’s been buried for a while.

I’m glad that he has admitted that there were problems that were unforeseen. It frightens me when he acknowledges that things are going to get worse.

As has been said, “I hate Bush as much as the next guy, unless the next guy is Reeder”, :smiley: but I agree it was a remarkably good speech for Bush. I was STUNNED when he referred to us as “Occupying” Iraq early in the speech. Amazing honesty not to just say “liberating.” Disappointed not to hear a word about recent American abuses (although I took two 5-minute breaks from the speech, so I may have missed something important), but pleased with his plan to essentially pull out.

Of course the proof is in the pudding. If the pullout doesn’t happen as planned, it just more meaningless posturing.

If our experience with nation building in Afghanistan has any relevance here, and I think it does, the January deadline for national elections is wildly optimistic. The Afghani elections have already been delayed til fall, and now NATO is saying they need more troops in country to prevent further slippage.

Huh? What plan are you taking about? He didn’t say anything about pulling out of Iraq. In fact, he hinted that we my very well INCREASE the troop count there. He did talk about turning over some level of authority to someone, somewhere in Iraq (unspecified as to exactly who, but then we have 5 more weeks to decide on the gory details :D). Bush and his people have said continually that we should expect to be in Iraq for a very long time (I’ve heard various numbers ranging from 5-30 years!). As I said previously, we are going to force democracy down their throats whether they want it or not.

I was struck by his repeated emphasis that we would be transferring “full sovereignty” on June 30th. I’m not quite sure what “full sovereignty” means when the country is still occupied by 138,000 American troops and there is no plan to significantly reduce those numbers any time in the near future. Presumably the interim Iraqi government won’t be able to exercise any command control over American troops! I don’t think that a government that lacks the muscle to enforce its own decisions, and can exert power only at the sufference of an occupying army, can be said to be “fully sovereign”.

I fear that what we’re doing here is manufacturing another South Vietnam. We’re creating a regime that lacks the ability to enforce its own laws or even defend itself. Such a regime will never be able to excite patriotic feeling among its citizens. I suspect that however well-intentioned this attempt is, the resulting government will never be perceived as anything more than an American puppet. And as the months drag on the Iraqis who actually are interested in “fighting for their own country” will choose do so in opposition to the compromised interim regime.

Looks like his handlers let him down. I mean, I myself do not know how to pronouce (or spell for that matter) that prison where the abuses took place. But if I was going to mention the place in a speech on network TV, in prime time, I’d work on learning how to pronouce the place.

Zoe asks:

There is precedent for this - Japan and Germany. I’m sure that part of the transition to Iraqi government will include the signing of a ‘status of forces’ agreement, giving the U.S. the right to maintain such troops in Iraq as are required to protect Iraq’s borders and maintain stability in the country. In fact, I think the Geneva convention may require this until the Iraqis can demonstrate the ability to maintain order and protect its borders without help.

The exact nature of that agreement is unknown - it may spell out in details just what the U.S. forces can and can’t do without the permission of the Iraqi government, or it may give them wide lattitude.

I fully expect that there will be at least 50,000 American troops in Iraq ten years from now. And again there is precedent for that. After all, the U.S. STILL maintains large garrisons of that magnitude in Japan, Germany and South Korea.

As long as the Iraqis are agreeable, this is a good thing. Being able to base a large contingent of U.S. troops in a friendly middle-eastern country if of great strategic advantage in the war on terror. The key is ‘friendly’, though.

Well, substitute “turn over some level of authority” for “pulling out,” then. I am quite admittedly naive in politics, but I think we have troops in various European and Asian countries, but we don’t claim authority in Germany or South Korea, for example. Regardless of our continuing military presence in Iraq, I hope for a similar situation of presence, but not authority. I fear it’s a faint hope, though.

The problem I see that no number of speeches can solve is that the Iraqi people are extremely poor and have no tradition of self-government.

I mean, it’s one thing to rebuild an industrial nation like Germany and Japan. It’s another thing entirely to import “democracy” in a place that has never appreciated or experienced it. And if the Iraqis can’t respect their government, what’s to keep them from fighting against it and each other?

Seems to me that our patience for Iraq will disappear long before the anger of the insurgents, kinda like Vietnam. And after the troops leave, the future of the country will likely be civil war until another dictator is born who’s brutal enough to end the war. And then we’ll be back where we started. But hey, as long the administration can maintain the illusion that they’re doing something to fight the terrorists, I guess that doesn’t really matter.

Iraq is not that poor. Iraq is not Afghanistan. Iraq has a per-capita income of between 1500 and 2500 dollars. That is on par with countries like Egypt and Iran, or maybe a little better. And that’s after decades of mismanagement by Saddam and two very expensive wars. Had the Iraqis had better government, they could be the model for the Middle East. The Iraqi people are modern, well educated, and have large swaths of the population that live in fairly technically advanced cities. And Iraq has a lot of oil.

And, the U.S. has long gone past repairing war damage, and is now spending tens of billions of dollars rebuilding Iraq’s neglected infrastructure and essentially giving Iraq a leg up.

This is the best hope for Iraq’s future. Iraq actually has a lot to lose in a civil war. It has a fairly big infrastructure at risk. And with an open economy the standard of living may rise fast enough to keep the population from getting too militant.

Well, we’ll see I guess. I don’t think the precedent of Japan and Germany is compelling. Neither of those two had people in active revolt against the occupying forces. And I don’t think stories about “werewolves” in Germany are valid illustrations of any such revolt. Neither of those two countries had populations that were splintered like the Iraqi population is. I don’t see similarity between them and the current case at all.

But we’ll see. I just hope that things are at least settled enough to get the hell out.

And this year’s the SDMB Thunderous Understatement Award goes to…

I have to wonder…when GeeDubya talks about “democracy” or “freedom”, does it ever occur to him to think the Iraqi people might freely and democraticly hate our guts? Does he have his fingers crossed? Kings X?

Go ahead, schedule the elections, January 1st. Does anyone in the room seriously believe that if every indication is that the Iraqi people intend to freely and democraticly elect Achmed bin Rabid Mullah president/caliph for life… does anyone believe we would allow such an election to go forward?

Said before: has anyone ever heard Lambchop to tell Shari Lewis to go fuck herself? And without that capacity for decision, all the fine words about “freedom” and “democracy” don’t amount to a fart in a high wind.

Hee, hee! That’s why this is going to be fun (in a sick sort of way). I think most reasonable people know that there is no way that Iraq is going to transition to true democracy in 7 months. The Kurds, Sunies & Shias are all going to have to come to a binding constitutional agreement and I just don’t believe that is in the cards. How can we expect agreement from people’s who have been at each others throats for hundreds of years? And I haven’t seen any discussion on IF woman be allowed to vote? I think we are assuming the answer is yes, but I’m not sure the male Iraqi population is going to back that up.

We must leave and let them decide for themselves how to work things out, how they want to be governed, but as soon as we do, the country is likely to fall into some sort of civil war.

The speech is getting hammered by the press. First page headlines from googlenews on bush speech:

In the past, when Bush scores a win with one of his Iraq speeches, it’s always shown up right away in the press coverage.
Not this time.