By 2020 China is projected to have the largest economy on the planet

I thought these projections might be of interest. As a side note I had no idea Iran’s (2005) economy was that large. Answers the question about how they were able to have the money for nuclear research.

The world’s largest economies in 2020

Current positions

Projections out to 2050

Problem with economic prediction that far out. We really don’t know what is going to happen for sure with oil prices and production. China has ramped up big time by importing a lot of oil, some of it fairly cheaply via government-to-government contracts.

If we really have “peaked” in oil, China could be in big trouble. It’s only consolation is that so are almost all the other countries on the list.

Well, if Hugo Chavez is right and gets OPEC to confirm it, they’ve got an OBSCENE amount of oil in Venezuela.
yay! raise the price!
If that happens, and the rest of the world’s resources dry up, Pat Robertson will call for Chavez’s assassination (again).
anything to keep his army of suburbans chugging along on jesus juice
Whatta dick.
white text agrees. he’s a dick.

Another question is this–will the stresses of rapid & uneven social change provoke revolution or sectional secession in China?

If so, the predictions go into the loo.

And there was the editorial in the LA Times yesterday which included “For roughly a decade, the global economy has been propelled forward by the insatiable consumption of U.S. households. Consumption accounts for about 70% of the U.S. gross domestic product, and U.S. growth has recently accounted for more than half of global growth. The appetite of Americans for imported clothing and gadgets has been one of the engines of China’s economic miracle.” If the US stops massively consuming stuff, especially stuff made in China, I bet the predictions will be shot to hell.

Of course the real irony would be if China had the largest economy on the planet in 2020, but thanks to wars/running out of oil/climate change/etc, that’s the difference between rich people having two oxen for their bullock carts, and rich people having one.