Fedor is heavily favored for this fight – too heavily, I think. Rogers is a big, strong, athletic fighter, who hits like a truck. I don’t think a brawl will work out well for Fedor and I question whether he will be able to take it to the ground when he wants it there. Plus, Rogers’ confidence level should be very high at this point with his unbeaten streak and recent knockout of Arlovski.
The most similar opponent to Rogers that Fedor has faced that I can think of was Mark Hunt, and Fedor was in some bad spots in that fight.
I"m not saying Fedor shouldn’t be favored to win, but I think there is a fair chance that Rogers may pull off the upset.