Can anyone give me a scenario under which Gore is our next president?

Great Debates
1

This may sound like a ridiculous question. Let me explain.

Gore’s hopes for overturning Bush’s lead appear to hinge on any of three things: Getting the “undervotes” counted in Miami-Dade; getting the Seminole and Martin absentee ballots for Bush thrown out; or getting the Florida Supreme Court to overturn Judge Saul’s decision about hand-counts in Gore-selected counties.

FoxNews is reporting at this moment that the (mostly Republican) Florida Legislature has scheduled a special session for Friday. I’m assuming this is to vote to send their own slate of electors for Bush if any of the above occur.

Republicans in the Legislature seem pretty adamant that they will not accept Gore winning Florida via dimpled chads or absentee votes thrown out on a technicality that had nothing to do with anything a voter did incorrectly.

What can anyone possibly do about that?

The hue and cry has already begun on the Democratic side about what the state Legislature is planning, from what I’m hearing in my ear as I type. But Article II, Section I of the U.S. Constitution says it plain as day: “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature therof may direct … Electors.”

Not the Florida Supreme Court; not the U.S. Supreme Court - the Legislature of the state of Florida.

Additionally, I think the U.S. Supreme Court would dispense with its desire to have a unanimous decision if the Florida SC overturn’s Saul’s ruling - unless the Florida court somehow makes such a ruling conform very specifically with Florida statute, in a way that their initial ruling didn’t seem to, as far as the SCOTUS was concerned.

Furthermore, if somehow two sets of electors get sent up to D.C., the House of Representatives that would decide which to count is controlled by Republicans.

So:
A) following the law;
B) acknowledging the fact that this issue has from the onset and will to the end fall on almost exactly partisan lines; and
C) noting Republicans control the crucial Florida and U.S. legislatures (and, arguably, the SCOTUS);

I submit that there is absolutely no scenario under which Gore can become our next President of the United States.

Whether you think that is a good thing or not isn’t the point of this thread. Telling me why what I’m saying above isn’t true is.

2

OK, how about…

A Florida court hands Gore the election. The Florida legislature sends one slate of electors (for Bush), while the court sends another (for Gore). After a flurry of lawsuits, the US Supreme Court, by a 5-4 vote, declares that the Gore slate is the legit one, based on the following reasoning:

The US Constitution provides that the state legislature chooses the means of appointing electors, but that it must do so prior to the election, therefore invalidating the post-election appointment of Bush electors. The Florida SC has final jurisdiction on determining what state law really says, so its slate wins.

Continuing…

For the Congress to invalidate a state’s electors, both houses must agree to do so by a majority vote. The House does so, while the Senate ties 50-50. Gore, as sitting VP casts the deciding vote, and wins the presidency by one vote - his own.

3

I know we’ve got an activist court down there in Tallahassee, but under what Florida law or constitutional standard do they name electors? SCOTUS would squash that faster than you can say “Rehnquist.”

And where are you getting that about both U.S. houses having to vote to invalidate a slate of electors? I’m not saying it isn’t true; I just can’t find it anywhere.

Also, I heard from a non-definitive source that there is no scenario under which Gore can cast a vote for himself. Does anyone know what law or court ruling indicates that?

4

I think the problem Congress would face would revolve around which slate to accept, not whether or not to reject a particular states electors.

Here’s a thought from left field…

I have read a scenario on some of the conservative boards where the Senate refuses to seat Carnahan based on the fact that there is a court challenge to the legitamacy of her appointment. Then they would take the vote on which electors to accept, choose Bush’s…and then resoslve the Carnahan controversy and seat her later in the day (week…who knows).

Normally I would toss this conjecture right out the window, but things have gotten strange lately. Any thoughts on this little scenario?

5

I understand this to be the case. I would assume that you would find the cite in the US Constitution.

I would think that morally he should recuse himself, but since morals went out the window a month ago, I see no legal reason he couldn’t.

6

“Landslide” George wakes up in the morning, has some decaf and orange juice, signs a few death warrants to get the juices flowing, glances at the paper. His brow furrows as his lips move, then his face takes on that deer in the stobe light look so endearing to his owners and cries out:

“More Americans voted for Algore than for me? That’s what “popular vote” means?!! Hey, no fair! Screw this, I aint’ gonna do it!”

Well, thats a scenario. No mention was made about plausibility…

7

Freedom2, I’m looking at my handy-dandy copy of the U.S. Constitution right now, and I don’t see the Senate having any say in this, or anything about what happens when two sets of electors arrive from one state.

All it says is the electoral votes from each state are opened and read before both houses of Congress, and the President of the Senate (Gore) reads the vote count.

Given all that’s happened, that last part seems especially cruel.

8

I think the OP has it right.

Which is why I look forward to the Legislature doing exactly what it looks like they are gonna do, and good ol’ Jeb signing off on it. That alone will overshadow any and all acts by Gore up to this point in terms of legitimacy, and seal Dubya’s fate in the hostory books as the only president ever to ascend to office by blatant theft.

It will also, of course, lock up tight all prospects for democratic congressional candidates in 2 years, and I think Hillary or just about anybody with a (D) behind their name, even Al, can start contemplating their cabinet choices for '04.

God love the greedy GOP legislature of Florida. The gratification will be delayed, but they are gonna give me what I want in the end.

stoid

9

Uhh, isn’t that exactly what happens if Clinton drops dead sometime in the next couple of weeks?

(You never said how long he had to be president…)

10

I’m not sure following the US Constitution counts as “blatant theft.” And if I recall correctly, this isn’t the only hotly contested Presidential race in history. I’m pretty sure the House of Reps picked it at least once.

I just want to give you a warning from someone who has been there. All of us who hate Clinton thought the same exact thing in '96 and then we thought we had it in the bag after Impeachment. If I learned anything, 2 years is a long time, and 4 is even longer when you have an electorate with a 30 second attention span.

11

They wouldn’t name the electors, the electors for both sides have already been selected. If they throw out enough Republican votes, or allow more recounts that add Democrat votes, and declare that Gore has won, then his slate goes.

I heard it on CNN. One of the steps of the electoral college is that each state’s delegation is presented in Congress with a sort of, “Does anyone object?” question. If a single member of both houses objects, there is a vote taken on whether to accept or reject with the majority ruling. I don’t say that it is gospel truth, but that’s was what the correspondent said.

In my scenario, it wouldn’t be a question of WHICH slate to accept, as the US Supremes had already decided that the only valid slate was Gore’s

12

I could be wrong…but this strikes me as the sole province of Congress to decide.

Equal branches of the gov’t and Seperation of Powers and all…

You know…that Constitution thingy???:slight_smile:

13

I don’t think Gore can cast a vote, as he is NOT a senator. The Constitution says something along the lines that the house and the senate vote in the case of an elctoral tie. Gore is VP, which makes him president of the senate, but he isn’t a senator or part of the senate. (I don’t really have a cite for that, it’s just how I’ve interpreted information I’ve read)

14

someone could kill bush, and chaney could die from a heart attack from the shock of it all

15

Smitty, the U.S. Supreme Court can’t force the sending of Gore electors to Washington. That is up to the state.

In fact, even if they said, “You are dead wrong,” as in your scenario, I am unclear as to what remedy they could impose. As who gets to decide what is done elector-wise, is spelled out pretty clearly.

And as I said, a second set of electors for Bush will most definitely be sent. SCOTUS can’t tell the U.S. House which ones to pick.

The Constitution, separation of powers, all that jazz.

16

I also heard the “both houses” scenario on the radio, but did not catch the source. The 2 houses split, FLA gets tossed out, and Gore wins. But then my kids came in the room and I lost track of what they were saying - sounded like more court fodder.

17

Just want to point out two things.

One.

The USS gets a little touchy about posts like this. I think you are still on the right side of the line, but I do think you are close to the line. Just giving you a heads up, I would hate for you to get “visited.”

Two.

If they both Bush and Cheney died Gore does not become President. I think who actually becomes president depends on when they died. (specifically before or after the electoral college meets)

18

Wrong! Perhaps, “no likely scenerio” but “absolutely no scenerio”? Never say never.

Short of the Florida Legislature deciding to stay out of it (a very real possibility before Senate leader McKay had his arm nearly twisted off his body this morning) and the State SC overruling Judge Sauls, the most likely scenerio for a Gore victory is that a couple of the 271 GOP electors might decide they should vote for the man who won the popular vote.

“Fat chance”, you might say, but it only takes two of those 271 (less than 1%) to change history. I’ll bet there isn’t a single one of them who hasn’t at least considered the possibility of such an action. If I was Bush, I wouldn’t take those electors’ loyalty for granted.

19

Only a month ago? Where were you during the election? :wink:

Let’s suppose that the courts in Florida decide that the “undervotes” need to be counted, and they swing the vote total in Florida in Gore’s favor. Wouldn’t he become President then?

It strikes me that this is the most plausible scenario, and that others are less likely.

20

wevets: It appears that the Florida legislature will not stand for that; and will send electors for Bush to D.C. if the court rules to count the undervotes.

As I’m reading the Constitution, there is nothing that can stop that from occurring.