Is he prepared to, Nazi-like, wipe out entire villages if Ukrainian snipers pick off Russians?
That’s pretty much the only way he could hold Ukraine for any length of time.
Massive, massive military presence, supplied from Russia.
Reign of civilian terror, threatening reprisals against civilian hostages
Death camps
All done during a time when everything can be put on video and evidence of atrocities can be definitively proven and sent to the world within hours.
I can’t see this working out well for Putin. I think he’d find a lot of internal resistance, and perhaps suffer a fatal stroke at his desk.
I doubt it.
I’m not a military person but both Iraq and Afghanistan had insurgencies fought with outdated weapons, and the invaders still lost.
The Ukraine is having 21st century nato weapons sent there that were designed to be used against Russian military equipment. they’re also getting western intelligence I assume, and the world will likely provide various other forms of insurgency support (money, food, logistics, spare parts, fuel, etc)
even if Russia went fully destructive (mass torture, heavy shelling of civilian areas) I don’t know if Ukraine would give up. an insurgency of just a few hundred people can be a major thorn in the side of an occupier.
There is already mass popular resistance to the invasion by Russians (if media reports out of Moscow are a true representation), and the mostly conscript army which was apparently deceived and had low morale before they started running out of food and gas. If Ukrainian farmers miss the planing season because of the invasion they’ll be short on grain, and the only thing worse for an occupying force than a demoralized army is a hungry, desperate populace. And the oligarchs who have thus far toed the line because of favoritism from the Putin-led government and whatever kompromat he may have on them are going to be reconsidering their position after losing their megayachts, sports teams, penthouse apartments, and bank accounts. The bigger fear is that Putin tries to take Ukraine and perhaps the rest of the world down with him.
Stranger
This has been my question as well. What does a Russian-occupied Ukraine look like? Putin’s army doesn’t seem to have its heart in this fight. Do they have the stomach to really occupy a country with 45 million armed residents? These guys will be taking fire from all directions all day and night. Now, they could fix that by leveling entire towns or cities. Are they really prepared for that? Hitler had sycophants who bought into his awesomeness and were okay committing whatever crimes the Fuehrer demanded of them. Putin has his lackeys, but do they have the intestinal fortitude to get real gallons (or liters) blood on their hands? I’m just not seeing it.
The Russians (and Americans) got their asses handed to them by an enemy that lived in caves and couldn’t even keep the lights on. Ukraine is a mostly first-world country being armed by the real first-world countries. These aren’t abandoned, worn out weapons. These are new and modern.
I’m just not seeing how this is envisioned to play out in Putin’s favor. I felt the same way when Dub went into Iraq. Yeah, winning the war is easy; but what’s the plan for hanging on and winning the peace? Dub had no plan. I don’t see how Putin has a plan, either.
This might be a good opportunity for Putin to pull a trump. Just completely pull out, and declare it a major victory, evidence to the contrary.
To take terrain is easy.
To hold terrain is all but impossible.
The Afghan insurgency won. While it is impossible to sum up the Iraq outcome so succinctly, and while the invaders did not install a government in their own image, Iraq’s insurgents did not win.
Afghanistan has such a long history of insurgency. Ukraine may also have such a history, but it isn’t recent. I wouldn’t jump to the defeatist conclusion that Ukraine will lose the conventional war, but I also wouldn’t be sure they can or should enter a insurgency.
As for whether Putin can keep Ukraine for long, I wonder if he can keep Russia for long.
Part of that is because the US didn’t try to impose an incredibly unpopular, but pro-US government by fiat.
I can’t see anyone Putin might put in place in Ukraine meeting the requirement of being both pro-Russia, and having the support of the Ukrainian populace. Those are pretty much going to be polar opposites.
Without that, Ukraine is going to be one long open wound for Putin.
Iraqi insurgents put up a fight until it became too much trouble to stay there, which I would consider a successful insurgency.
My understanding is that Ukraine has revolted against corrupt leadership multiple times in the last generation. They revolted against the USSR in 1991, the orange revolution of 2004 and the dignity revolution of 2014.
I don’t think people who have successfully led grassroots rebellions against corrupt and authoritarian governments at least 3 times in the last 30 years are going to passively sit by and allow a Putin appointed puppet to rule the country. I would hope the military and police would refuse to enforce a regime like that either.
It was my understanding is that is potentially another reason Putin is doing this. His regime is dependent on a passive public who accept intimidation, kleptocracy and authoritarianism. Countries with a public unwilling to put up with this is a threat to the regime like those of his and he is pushing back against movements that are pro-democracy, anti-corruption and empowered by grassroots citizens occurring in eastern europe. I’m sure the last thing Putin wants is informed citizens unwilling to put up with his abuse back home in russia.
If Putin gets his skates on and starts massive population relocation in the predominantly ethnic Russian parts of Ukraine he may have a chance of ‘reuniting’ part of Holy Rus or whatever pseudohistorical spin suits his purpose in time to do a strategic withdrawal from the remainder of the country.
Shipping out Ukrainians and bringing in Russians to take over land is his best chance of having any gains of the sort that may appeal to the Russian nationalists who look to be his few remaining friends. If Russian troops and paramilitaries remain in place they will be relatively easy to integrate into Russia. As former Jugoslavia found out, unscrambling the omelette of forced ethnic dispossession [and genocide often enough] is incredibly fraught.